Munster look for a miracle to escape January blues

The permutations may be complicated but with their European destiny now out of their control, Munster’s mission is clear and simple.

Nothing but a bonus-point victory over Ospreys at Thomond Park tomorrow will give Johann van Graan’s side a chance of progressing out of Heineken Champions Cup Pool 4 and into the quarter-finals and even that may not be good enough if results in other pools today fail to go their way.

Munster also know that Saracens, who enter their round-six game at home to Pool 4 winners Racing 92 at the same time under the very real threat of relegation to the English Championship for their breaches of the Premiership salary cap, could also scupper their hopes.

A win for Saracens, currently second three points ahead of Munster, would secure runner-up spot and render the province’s efforts null and void but van Graan knows his players will fight to the bitter end even if they have done themselves few favours in the preceding rounds.

“It’s very simple, we need to go out and perform and get a bonus-point win to give ourselves any chance,” the head coach said.

“It doesn't really matter what happens in the other games. Obviously, if Saracens beat Racing we can't make it.

We might have enough points or more points than other teams, only two clubs from a pool can qualify so I guess from our side, we’re playing the same time and we just need to do what we can and then if the chips fall our way, great, and if it doesn’t then we had opportunities early in the competition.

“There was a big moment against Racing at home in round two, big moment against Saracens away, a penalty opportunity that we didn't use to take a point, and we were in it last weekend away to Racing. After 71 minutes we were still ahead so we left one or two points out there during the course of the five games.”

Those points left behind in Limerick, London and Paris over the previous four pool games should provide serious pause for thought, whether Munster progress or not tomorrow afternoon and in the wake of leading Racing 22-20 with 10 minutes to go last Sunday at La Défense Arena only to slide to a 39-22 defeat, van Graan is relying on his players to learn from those costly lapses, starting against winless Ospreys.

“I think it's a very important question. We spoke about it as a group. Both our away losses in this competition this year have been against the two semi-finalists of the previous two years.

“We'd like to believe that we started very well against Racing.

"With those game-breakers, you can’t give them a lead - indeed we went 9-0 up after 18 minutes.

“From a Saracens point of view, pretty similar thing, at half time in the semi last year the score was 12-9 and they kind of took that away from us in the second half and that was a big focus point for us, that second half. Remember we were 9-3 up, we missed a kick at goal and the two Vunipola brothers scored two tries.

“So yes, there's an improvement. Unfortunately, we came up against two of the very best teams in Europe in our pool so we have to improve, we've got to learn our lessons and that's got to show in the results as well.”

At face value, Ospreys represent an ideal opportunity to rebound and kickstart the second half of the season, even if it is solely the Guinness PRO14 on which Munster can focus. Yet despite their five defeats from five in Europe this term, van Graan senses the Welsh region could be dangerous opposition, particularly with their Wales stars finally returning to the line-up following their run to the World Cup semi-finals.

“They are a quality side. One or two things haven't gone their way. Cards-wise in Europe they were unlucky to concede a few and then they were out of it. Even in the away game against Racing they came back after being down. They've got literally nothing to lose.

They’ve got Alun Wyn Jones back who’s a person that I respect a lot and you can see he means a lot to that team and they fought very well against a Saracens team on the weekend so it’s a new game of rugby on Sunday afternoon.

Munster’s ongoing injury strife may well further hamper their ambition with international Keith Earls and Jean Kleyn both ruled out having faced Racing last Sunday. Wing Earls injured a knee during the week while Kleyn was omitted from the matchday squad having been sent for a scan on a neck injury sustained in Paris.

With Shane Daley, who alongside scrum-half Craig Casey made his European debut off the bench in the dying minutes last week, injuring a thumb this week, Earls’ spot on the left wing is handed to the next debutant in line, Calvin Nash, while Fineen Wycherley replaces Kleyn in the second row alongside Billy Holland, making his 225th Munster appearance.

Daley’s absence from the replacements hands the opportunity of a Champions Cup debut this weekend to 20-year-old fly-half Ben Healy while a similar opening has been made for another impressive academy player, back-rower Jack O’Sullivan who replaces Chris Cloete on a bench that for the second week in a row shows no lock cover.

Munster are living dangerously in more ways than one.