Springboks have to consider Japan and not Ireland down the road
Well, well, well. There was a buzz around the Springbok camp with the news that Japan had beaten Ireland 19-12 just before South Africa were due to kick-off against Namibia.
Suddenly the Boks’ potential road to the latter stages of Rugby World Cup 2019 might not include a quarter-final meeting against Ireland. Japan could be on their road now.
Of course, there is still a lot of rugby to be played before that happens, including South Africa’s match against Italy in Shizuoka on Friday. If the Boks win that then they are through to the last eight as Canada cannot beat them.
The Azzuri though, have been in good form at this World Cup while the Boks haven’t put a solid 80 minutes together yet.
South Africa’s opening 23-13 loss to New Zealand had many good moments but several poor ones as well. The 57-3 win over Namibia in Toyota City on Saturday was another performance where the word ‘patchy’ comes to mind.
It’s no wonder coach Rassie Erasmus was telling anyone who would listen after the Namibia match that facing ‘Japan is a scary play-off prospect’.
“We played Japan a few weeks ago. We won 41-7 but I said afterward that the scoreline was not a true reflection of the game,” Erasmus said.
“I said back then that we might end up playing Japan in the World Cup quarter-finals. Obviously, there was a lot hinging on that game between Ireland and Japan, but I knew that Japan had a realistic chance of winning that game and the game against Scotland to top their pool.
“We’ve beaten Namibia and if we beat Italy we will be in a position to finish second in our pool. If Japan keep winning they will become a realistic option to face us in the playoffs. It’s a bit of a scary option to play Japan.”
Against Namibia the Bok pack were dominant as expected but fly-half Elton Jantjies was all over the place. A fly-half will never have an easier ride in Test rugby than the one Jantjies’ pack gave him against their African neighbours and yet he managed to fluff almost every line.
Dropped passes, inaccurate kicking, ponderous decision-making and poor options marked his play and gave Erasmus cause for concern. Suddenly the continued fitness of first choice fly-half Handré Pollard is essential. If the Boks have to go into the quarter-finals with Jantjies, in this form pulling the strings, they could be in trouble.
In mitigation for the Lions pivot, he hadn’t played a competitive match since the Boks beat Argentina 24-18 at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria six weeks ago. Jantjies will have another chance to polish his play against Canada next Tuesday because Pollard will start against Italy on Friday.
It’s essential that Jantjies, as understudy, finds his best form because when he is firing, he adds a dangerous dimension to the Boks’ attacking play.
Erasmus was careful not to single out his fly-half by name in the post-match assessment of the Namibia match, but it was obvious whom he was referring to when he defended the performance of the team.
“A lot of people will point fingers and say it wasn’t a great performance but at least it was a physical challenge,” Erasmus said.
“Some guys got some match fitness and we got some log points out of this and now we’re a little bit better prepared for the Italy match.
“We needed to bounce back with a win and we got that with five points so that was important and that was a positive.
“But in the same breath you could see that Namibia was probably targeting the Canada game and they were resting a few players so, by no means are we getting carried away. We are realistic about where we are and what we have to do.
“They really came for us physically very hard. We might not have had a really hard tactical challenge in this game but physically we were challenged.”
Italy will test the Boks but it’s difficult to see how they could upset them now that the Springboks are up and running. Their first choice players were rested against Namibia while the likes of skipper Siya Kolisi had a valuable 25 minutes off the bench as his rehabilitation to full fitness continues.
The Boks have only ever lost three Pool games out of 24 in RWC history and none of those have been in the third round. They always win their third game when they are fully acclimatised to the competition.
But as Japan showed against Ireland and Uruguay proved against Fiji, nothing can be taken for granted as the gap between the best and the rest narrows with every four-year cycle.
South Africa had first-hand experience of the slowly shifting balance of power in Brighton four years ago. Japan’s famous 34-32 win over the Boks was perhaps the biggest upset in all of sport, never mind rugby.
Ireland’s loss to Japan, which might have taken them out of the Boks’ quarter-final path and into the All Blacks’ road, will sting. But World Cups aren’t won in the pool stage.
And for both South Africa and Ireland, with a group defeat each, they still aren’t lost either.
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