Ireland desperate to stay on Six Nations title tightrope

Ireland put their Six Nations credentials under the microscope tonight knowing that for all the familiarity of their Welsh foes, the challenge they face will be far from predictable.

Beneath the roof and the glare of the Principality Stadium’s lights tonight, and facing into the febrile atmosphere of a Cardiff crowd desperate for a first home victory of 2017, the championship hopefuls in green can expect a root and branch examination of their status as title contenders.

Wales, after a sluggish opening-round win over Italy, may be on their uppers, having lost to England here in round two and then Scotland at Murrayfield, but the last time Ireland came here in this situation, with three wins from three in the penultimate round of the 2015 RBS 6 Nations, Joe Schmidt’s men were found wanting.

Amidst all the angst that followed Ireland’s World Cup quarter-final defeat to Argentina in the same arena seven months on, and last month’s reverse to Scotland at Murrayfield in round one of this year’s tournament, it is easy to forget that the 23-16 defeat in 2015 also left a bitter taste.

Yet, despite Ireland successfully defending their title with a big win at Murrayfield seven days after that, it was still a surprise to hear the Wales win referenced time and again in camp at Carton House this week.

The link between all three was a poor Irish start, in that instance the repeated concession of cheap penalties as the visitors were forced onto the back foot by early Welsh ferocity and quickly left playing catch-up to a 12-0 home lead that would not be bridged.

“They’re going to be fired up for this game big time and we’ve got to be ready for it and match it,” scrum-half Conor Murray said on Monday. “Make sure we start well and we started slowly against them last time and that was probably the difference between the teams.”

“We have to go over there and match them, fire with fire,” said assistant coach Simon Easterby on the same day. “We have to be smart in the way we play. We didn’t give ourselves the best chance two years ago when we went there and gave them a 12-0 lead.” Whether they are on the front foot or their backs are to the wall, there is no doubt that the Welsh are not easily beaten and this evening will not be any different.

“Wales are very dogmatic, they’re very hard to beat back and beat down,” Schmidt said at Wednesday’s team announcement, “they’ll always come back at you, so even if you get that good start like we did last year (in a 16-16 Dublin draw), you have to keep playing at them, keep them under pressure, as soon as you give them some sort of pressure release, they get some ill-discipline (from the opposition) and get a good field position they can launch from.”

With a team as adept at breaking the gainline as this Wales side under the temporary charge of Rob Howley in the absence of Lions-occupied Warren Gatland, the need to match them in terms of intensity and physicality is no idle pre-game cliche. Ireland have to win the collisions and also stand firm in defence as they did in beating France 19-9 a fortnight ago. Like the French game, in which Ireland got away with a slow start, winning will be hard-earned against a team under pressure from their own supporters.Yet so too will Schmidt have identified the weak points, not least Wales’s defence out wide which has cost them dearly, against both the English and Scots.

With the ball, the Welsh will cause problems, with a dangerous scrum-half in Rhys Webb to rival Murray’s claim for the Lions number 9 jersey and a powerful midfield of Scott Williams and Jon Davies to exploit their pack’s ability to gain hard yards either side of the consistent goal-kicking of fly-half Dan Biggar. Schmidt believes Wales are playing with more freedom under Howley than they do under Gatland and he is mindful of how close they were to beating England before their late meltdown allowed the champions to scrape home.

“Who knows what would have happened?” the Ireland boss pondered before disputing the claim that Wales are an easy outfit to read.

“They’re not predictable for us, even if it was a predictable selection, guys have been given the opportunity, they have good and smart players,” Schmidt said. “Dan Biggar is not predictable, he has a fantastic long, short and high kicking game. Jon Davies is a difficult character to contain, he can take the outside line, he is adept on his left foot and you’re always worried.”

Expect the unexpected, warned Schmidt, and with good reason, but his players will be well-enough armed to solve the puzzle. They have no choice but to, given the thin line they have been treading since that opening-day loss in Edinburgh and that desperation to stay alive in this championship should be enough to keep them on the tight title chase.