Proud in defeat but Leinster fans fear for the future
The players have spoken at length that they owed under-fire coach Matt O’Connor a performance and they certainly upped what we’ve seen in the Guinness Pro12 this season.
All the correct noises were emanating from the Leinster camp last week that they were hurting and ready to cause the upset. Their 4/1 underdog odds said everything.
However, one swallow doesn’t make a summer and they are eight points off the Ospreys for fourth place in the Pro12 — for the first time since 2011 they will probably miss the play-offs; a loss against Ulster at Ravenhill this Friday could possibly confirm that. The fact they will therefore miss out on a potential home semi-final will not lighten the mood of the bean counters that run the province’s finances.
However, yesterday’s titanic performance showed Leinster are not far away from dining again at the top table. There was little between the teams and one could argue that if Leinster had been out of the draw first, they would be heading to London to face old foes Clermont Auvergne.
The record of home teams at the semi-final stages of the European and Amlin Cups is incredibly high statistically. Leinster were the only Irish team to emerge from the group stages this year and, excluding 2013 when they went on to win the Amlin, they have done so every year since 2008.
Leinster have been heavily criticised by their supporters and in the media, but when you examine the limited availability of their top tier players this season, it is really their squad players that need to be questioned and analysed. Leinster get the best raw material coming into their academy through the schools system, which is sprinkled with quality coaches and the extras like strength and conditioning experts, nutritionists, video analysts, and sports psychologists.
Toulon and Clermont are capable of dominating in two competitions with their squad depth, not just in terms of squad size but also quality. Unfortunately for Leinster this season, once they went down past No’s 25-26, the players haven’t been good enough to win enough matches in the blue jersey.
Those losses have increased pressure on the coaching staff, not to mention the international set who aren’t just fatigued from Ireland duty but are often unavailable anyway with the IRFU player management system. Matt O’Connor has been critical of that and while you could argue he knew that was going to be a factor when he signed up for the job, he still has a valid argument. It is a factor in results and performances.
They pulled off a great coup by bringing Johnny Sexton back from Racing Metro but they have been unlucky with their foreign recruits of late. Ben Teo is clearly quality, but rugby league converts are always a risk and take time to adapt. He broke his arm in his first game and missed valuable opportunities to develop in Pro12 matches that could have accelerated his development and had him ready to be a match-winner yesterday.
Kane Douglas has a back injury and hasn’t convinced in the games he’s been involved in so far, and I don’t think Leinster need a back three player like Zane Kirchner as badly as they do quality in other positions, given the Irish-qualified players they have in the two Kearneys, Fitzgerald, and McFadden, among others.
They need a quality nine to compete with Reddan and Boss and eventually replace them, as both are heading towards the end of their careers.
Leinster will be hurt badly next season with the World Cup. Look at their front row alone: They will lose Healy, McGrath, Ross, Moore, and Cronin for certain and could lose Strauss and Furlong too. They have reacted to that by signing two props from the Ulster Bank League on short-term deals.
However, the four points awarded for a Guinness Pro12 win in September have the same value as the ones in May and unless Leinster can improve the capacity of their non-internationals to get results, they could find themselves in a poor position in the domestic league again.
That will affect revenue through attendances, sponsor, performance bonuses etc. But it could also affect their seeding for the following season’s European Cup group stages, which could mean a group like Munster’s this season with Clermont and Sarries — applying even more pressure to their quality players.
Leinster certainly aren’t finished, and the Toulon performance shows that Matt O’Connor is on the right track and capable of getting performances from the group. The resources at his disposal need to be improved, though, given the unique circumstances that he has to work under at the moment. Squad depth costs money and also maybe a couple of extra foreign player spots to fill the voids when the internationals are unavailable.
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