Ireland can take the spring out of the Boks’ step
And with England taking on the All Blacks at Twickenham, Cardiff hosting Wales versus Australia and the Aviva Stadium lights switching on for this evening’s showdown between Ireland and South Africa, there are three pretty good reasons to come in from the cold and settle in for a feast of Test rugby as Europe’s best go head to head with the giants of the southern hemisphere.
Ireland’s World Cup kicks off 45 weeks from now when Joe Schmidt’s team begins its pool campaign at the Millennium Stadium against Canada but today’s meeting with the mighty Springboks should put some in mind of the tougher challenges that the Irish head coach will hope lie further down the road in the knockout stages of rugby’s showpiece tournament.
Heyneke Meyer and his tourists may be treating this month’s Tests as a World Cup warm-up but Schmidt said this week that this is a game to be treated in isolation, while captain Paul O’Connell yesterday stressed there is a long way to go and a lot of work to be done before Ireland can even think about the World Cup.
As Felix Jones, who gets a chance to stake his claim for a full-back berth off the replacements’ bench, said earlier this week with bitter experience, the World Cup may be 10 months from now but it is also potentially only an injury away. Things can change quickly in rugby and an awful lot can happen between now and next September 19.
Yet for all the variables, this is a game that can define that period and help to determine whether Ireland go to England as mere hopefuls or genuine contenders.
That’s what prompted Leinster boss Matt O’Connor to say recently that Ireland needed to collect a southern hemisphere scalp by beating either South Africa today or Australia in a fortnight if they are to compete at the World Cup.
“It would certainly help,” O’Connell agreed yesterday. “You’d love to be heading to the World Cup with some big scalps and I think that’s what Joe has said all along.
“We have a three-game Test series and we’d love to take one of the big southern hemisphere teams down.”
So far so bullish but then came the more pragmatic view from the skipper.
“At times, it’s not always an indicator of success. We brought great form into the World Cup in 2007 and didn’t produce, but I think one of the things we talk about a lot is improvement. If we can improve from game to game, from series to series, then that’s what we want.
“That’s what we did at times last year. There were times we took the odd step back, like the England game and maybe a little bit in Argentina as well — although a lot of players did get their first experience out there and produced some big performances. The big thing for us is to be able to improve. There’s a lot of games between now and the World Cup and if we can improve over the autumn, improve over the Six Nations, we’ll be in pre-season together next summer again and just marginal gains are important as well.”
There are definitely mitigating factors, somewhat eagerly pointed out by Schmidt when naming his team on Thursday, that suggest Ireland should accept marginal gains over the next 10 months rather than place too much stock in the outcome of today’s game against the second-ranked team in the world, who arrived in Dublin fresh from an Ellis Park beating of their nemesis, the All Blacks.
We have heard downbeat scenarios before from head coaches as they talk up the opposition while privately steeling themselves and their players for the mother of all performances.
It is to be hoped Schmidt was not merely getting his excuses in early, and that Ireland will hit the ground running against the Springboks this evening.
Everything points to a South African win but Ireland are the Six Nations champions, on home soil. If they play smart, keep their discipline while dealing with the Boks’ physicality and make the most of the opportunities presented, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t be toasting a famous victory come tonight.
And what a statement that would make.
Ireland: No Cian Healy or Rory Best and a question mark over tighthead Mike Ross’s readiness are not the ideal elements to be facing the Springboks, but Ireland have to front up. They finished the Six Nations with two very strong front rows and a 100% completion rate over the five games. Now Jack McGrath and Sean Cronin must step up to starting roles in an all-Leinster front row with Ross. 3/5
South Africa: When scrum coach Pieter de Villiers says he’s very happy with the way his pack performed against the All Blacks out and how they’ve trained since you know Ireland are in for an onerous 80 minutes. Front rowers Tendai ‘Beast’ Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis and Jannie du Plessis did the business at Ellis Park a month ago, have more than 60 caps apiece and have started together a record 15 times. 4/5
Ireland: Back in business after a dodgy 2013, Ireland emerged from the 2014 Six Nations with the best lineout in Europe, marshaled by Paul O’Connell with Devin Toner the main target and excellent jumping support provided by Jamie Heaslip and Peter O’Mahony. Sean Cronin takes over the throwing duties from Rory Best and will need a confident start. 4/5
South Africa: In second rows Eben Etzebeth and Victor Matfield the South Africans have the young and the old, the brawn and the brains, the large and the large. Rock solid on their own throw, where No. 8 Vermuelen is a frequent target and able to pile the pressure on to disrupt opponents’ ball and Etzebeth leading the Rugby Championship stats for steals. Ireland will have to be equally contentious in defence to negate their rolling maul threat. 4/5
Ireland: At their abrasive, intense best, the Irish are a match for anyone, but, as they showed against England in last season’s Six Nations, an off day at the breakdown can spell trouble. Chris Henry continues to deputise at openside for Sean O’Brien, with the Six Nations-winning back row completed by Peter O’Mahony at blindside and Jamie Heaslip at No.8. 4/5
South Africa: Immense physicality at the breakdown, supplied from all over the pitch, whether it’s hooker Bismarck du Plessis, No. 8 Duane Vermuelen or wing Bryan Habana. In young flankers Tebohe ‘Oupa’ Mohoje and Marcell Coetzee the Boks also have two very adept poachers while Vermuelen led the Rugby Championship for turnovers and they have the talismanic presence of Schalk Burger in reserve. Ireland will have to be at their most accurate going into contact. 4/5
Ireland: As the All Blacks found against the Springboks, loose kicking can prove costly so Johnny Sexton and his back three have to be on top of their game kicking out of hand. Sexton has proved an invaluable place kicker but that crucial miss against New Zealand last autumn still leaves a question mark. 3/5
South Africa: Full-back Willie Le Roux can create a lot of space with his intelligent kicking and the Springboks backline all have great boots, with each of the back three of Cornal Hendricks, Bryan Habana and Le Roux able to spark a dangerous kick chase. Handré Pollard is less inclined than his predecessor Morne Steyn to utilise the up and under but when he does the hang time makes them contestable. And replacement out-half Patrick Lambie is dependable enough to land a 55-metre penalty to beat the All Blacks with 90 seconds left on the clock. 4/5
Ireland: We saw against New Zealand a year ago that when half-backs Conor Murray and Sexton are at the peak of their powers and Ireland’s offence fires it is too much for any team to handle. But, with not one but two new centres to bed in, there is an unknown element to this attack. Tommy Bowe and Simon Zebo come onto the wings with Six Nations starters Andrew Trimble and Dave Kearney injured. 3½/5
South Africa: Handré Pollard at fly-half means the Boks have a strong young playmaker to keep defences on the hop with his unpredictability and physicality, as likely to go it alone (witness his two tries try against NZ last time out) as stick to a well-rehearsed pattern. The Boks are using more width of late and effectively so, prepared to run from deep rather than relieve pressure with kicks, but they still have their impressive power game to fall back on if the conditions dictate. 4/5
Ireland: Defence coach Les Kiss has to plan for a South African team much less predictable than in previous seasons and defensive unit that has to hang in there for 80 minutes or see their work with the ball come to nought, as it did against New Zealand last season. What the two rookie centres, Jared Payne and Robbie Henshaw, lack in experience, they will make up for in physicality but Ireland have to be on the money this evening. 3/5
South Africa: Carved open a couple of times in midfield by the All Blacks in Ellis Park and conceded a third try when out on their feet late on but the South Africans are generally well drilled, closing down space, slowing down ball and forcing turnovers. 3½/5
Total: Ireland: 20½/30
Total: South Africa: 23½/30
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