Expect a win — but it will be close
Battered and bruised by England a fortnight ago as a Grand Slam slipped from their grasp for another year, Declan Kidney’s men have recalibrated their objectives and set sights on winning their remaining three fixtures in a bid to win a first title since 2009.
That is not just positive thinking in the wake of a demoralising 12-6 defeat at home to the still-Slam-focused English, it is backed by a steely determination to put right the wrongs that let Stuart Lancaster’s inexperienced side upstage them in their own backyard.
Losing always hurts, particularly when you have been the architects of your own downfall and the poor decision-making, sloppy kicking and inability to adapt to the rainy conditions in Dublin on February 9, means Ireland are on a mission in Edinburgh to atone for their shortcomings. Not least at the breakdown, where every instance of inaccuracy in front of the Irish posts was punished by the boot of England’s Owen Farrell and not enough was made of the possession they enjoyed in their opponents’ half.
“We need to improve,” defence coach Anthony Foley said. “We need to push for getting turnovers and trying to apply pressure on the opposition and play from there, and also we need to secure our ball.
“We need quicker ball to play off, and at times that becomes about accuracy, it becomes about that little bit of detail, it becomes about those unforced errors going into contact as well as dropping the ball as you go into contact.
“Those little things, we have been working on it, but they’re only little things and I think we can get our accuracy up, and make sure everybody is responsible for their roles. We’ve seen massive improvements in it.”
Interestingly the tackle area is the facet of Scotland’s game that is giving interim head coach Scott Johnson most concern, despite the reawakening of a backline that appeared to be scoring for fun against Italy two weeks ago.
Having lost their opening game to England, the Scots bounced back with a 34-10 win over the Italians and lie second in the championship table courtesy of tries scored.
That is a remarkable turnaround for a side that not so long ago could not buy a try, such was the lack of cutting edge in their game.
Yet there is a danger of reading just a little too much into Scotland’s victory last time out. It was, after all, their first Six Nations victory since 2011 and it came against an Italy side which was a pale imitation of the outfit which had beaten France the previous week, not least their talisman Sergio Parisse, who had his poorest game for the Azzurri in a long time.
As well as Scotland played in defeating the Italians, they will need to be much, much better if they harbour any ambitions of doing the same to Ireland. That is a point Scott Johnson has been making ever since, particularly regarding the breakdown, where his side were as tame against England in their opening match as Italy were in Edinburgh.
And as one Scottish journalist, clearly weary of false dawns where Caledonian rugby is concerned, pointed out earlier this week, Scotland have not won back-to-back matches in the Six Nations since 2001, when they beat Italy first and followed with a win over... Ireland.
Further inspection reveals that even then, those wins were six months apart, that season having been disrupted by the foot and mouth disease outbreak and Ireland have not lost in Edinburgh during the Six Nations since.
That said, recent championship meetings at Murrayfield have been extremely tight affairs, Ireland winning by three in 2011, seven in ’09 and one point in ’07 and there will be a huge amount of pressure on debutant fly-half Paddy Jackson not just to justify his selection ahead of Ronan O’Gara but keep that winning run going and haul Ireland back into the Six Nations title race. He should get the platform to do so, particularly from a scrum where Cian Healy’s suspension at loosehead is negated by the absence of Scotland’s first-choice tighthead Euan Murray due to issues of his religious faith.
Ireland, Jackson very much included, will also need to kick out of hand with more precision than they managed against the English, especially given the potency of the Scottish back three of Sean Maitland, Tim Visser and Stuart Hogg, who will happily run back errant high balls at a turbocharged rate if knots.
Yet for all Jackson’s inexperience, his namesake in the Scottish 10 jersey, Ruaridh Jackson, is also far from the finished article and this is a game that needs a strong performance from their respective scrum-halves also. Much of the onus will fall on quick ball at ruck time from Conor Murray to deliver Paddy Jackson the clean service he will need to get Ireland’s backline going.
You can almost guarantee a return to the intensity which blew away Wales in the first half of Ireland’s opening game now most of the bodies have healed from that torrid England game and the minds are fired by a desire to put things right.
The ability to execute will be the great unknown and with two sides at the crossroads it is difficult to know exactly which direction this game is going to take. It should be a fascinating, close-run encounter but Ireland, chastened by their last performance can edge home. And what price a drop goal from the overlooked substitute O’Gara to win it at the death and keep the Irish management on their toes for another couple of weeks?
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