Where the game will be won and lost
AUSTRALIA won the Tri Nations against all the odds this season despite having the most vulnerable set piece in the tournament. They were facilitated by South Africa fielding a severely weakened forward unit in their opening game and that gave them momentum. Given the quality of the Australian back line, if Ireland have any chance of winning tomorrow morning they have to deny them any semblance of quality, go forward ball from the scrum and lineout.
Australia’s scrum has been struggling for some time and they usually do just about enough to survive by clever manipulation of the referee and getting the ball in and away as quickly as possible. The injury to first-choice loose head Ben Robinson on the eve of the World Cup was a massive blow and one Ireland need to capitalise on. The emergence of Mike Ross at tight head has not only helped to stabilise the Irish scrum but turned it into an attacking weapon. Given the Corkman’s limited contribution outside of the set piece, he must maximise his value to the team by putting the inexperienced Sekope Kepu under severe pressure on the Wallaby put-in. That will be the first step in Ireland’s quest to negate the brilliance of Will Genia and Quade Cooper at half-back.
Australia’s lineout has also creaked, to such an extent that Robbie Deans has been forced to resurrect the career of Dan Vickerman in the second row to add ballast and ball-winning ability out of touch.
There is a big dependence on Rocky Elsom, who adopts a roving role up and down the Aussie lineout in much the same manner as Imanol Harinordoquy does for France. More often than not the throw will go to the former Leinster man and Ireland need to pressurise him in the air at all times. Paul O’Connell was magnificent against the USA and looks in prime condition. He must lead an all-out assault on every Australian lineout throw in an effort to deny the Wallaby the quick, off the top lineout possession that Cooper thrives on.
HAVING followed the fortunes of Australia very closely over the last 12 months it is clear that if you want to beat them, you should not attempt to take them at their own game. When it comes to playing a loose broken field game they are imperious, with Kurtley Beale, James O’Connor, Quade Cooper and Will Genia the masters at stepping and offloading. It also helps that all of them have pace to burn.
When Ireland run and attack Australia they must do so on their terms. This season already, Samoa and New Zealand exposed the Wallabies when they put the ball in behind their back three. The challenge here, especially for Jonny Sexton, is to make sure that the kick/chase is spot-on.
The margin for error is very tight because if you offer Beale, O’Connor and Adam Ashley-Cooper the space to counter-attack then they could rip you apart.
Tommy Bowe and Keith Earls will have to chase a lot of lost causes off the ball but they simply have to make sure they arrive in the immediate vicinity of the catcher at the same time as Sexton’s kicks. In addition, Sexton will have to play the corners to pin the Australians deep in their own half of the field and then rely on a very aggressive midfield defence to suffocate the Wallabies. Italy managed this for long periods of their opening game and were level at half-time.
At their best, the Irish attacking game is miles ahead of anything Italy offered in the opener and the time has arrived for Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll to make their mark on this tournament with ball in hand. Cooper also needs to be targeted in the ten channel, with Sean O’Brien given the opportunity to seek him out as often as possible.
Much has been made over here of the presence of Jim Williams in the Australian management set-up and the insight that he has on the Irish players. Flip that on its head and in Alan Gaffney and Les Kiss Ireland have two coaches with an intimate knowledge of all of the Wallaby squad.
This is the day for those two in particular to earn their corn. Ireland need to swarm all over this Australian side like a rash and suffocate them. It’ll be interesting to see how they respond.
THE biggest challenge for Ireland at Eden Park — and the one that will ultimately decide the outcome of this contest — is how successfully they compete at the breakdown. The task facing them is complicated even further by the presence of David Pocock in the Australian back row.
The dynamic 23-year-old, who already has 35 caps, has now surpassed Heinrich Brussow and the great Richie McCaw as the most effective player in the game at engineering turnovers. His low centre of gravity and massive upper body strength make him almost impossible to shift when he positions himself over the tackled player in the battle for possession. When he locks his conger eel-like grip on the ball he just doesn’t let go. The big problem for Ireland is with David Wallace at home we don’t have an open side to compete with Pocock. Sean O’Brien is well equipped to make an impact but is better suited to either of the other two back row slots.
The only way to reduce Pocock’s impact on proceedings is to have sufficient numbers arriving early to blow him off the ball. But Ireland’s physicality at the breakdown in recent contests has been sorely lacking. Gert Smal is acutely aware of this issue and has vowed to address it. He reckons Ireland simply have to arrive at the breakdown quicker, with at least the ball carrier and three others arriving as a collective.
Geordan Murphy also commented during the week that England’s gigantic forwards were arriving at the breakdown with their noses down while Ireland were less effective, rucking with their noses up. All a bit technical really but when Ireland are at their best, arriving at the contact area, bound together and rucking furiously with low body positions parallel to the touch line they are at their most effective. Whatever way they approach the contact area, it needs to be far more aggressive than anything we have seen the start of August. The only place you want your nose at the end of this test match is in front. However, that’s going to prove a big ask.
Ireland: A strong outing against a committed US pack last week, and Ireland’s pack will be bolstered by the return of loosehead Cian Healy, although stand-in Tom Court and his replacement Tony Buckley equipped themselves well against the Eagles. 3½/5
Australia: Perceived as vulnerable but much improved in recent times, and the Wallabies front row held its own first time out against a formidable Italian front row last weekend in Auckland’s North Harbour stadium. 3/5
Ireland: Paul O’Connell’s performance was one of the standouts for Ireland against the Americans and the lineout worked well although you get the feeling there is more up O’Connell’s sleeve waiting for the Wallabies. 4/5
Australia: Captain James Horwill and Dan Vickerman, aided by back row Rocky Elsom represent a more than solid lineout platform for the Australians and were trouble free against the Italians. 3½/5
Ireland: Not enough numbers were committed against the USA and that slowed Irish ball right down when Declan Kidney’s side should have been making hay. The problems were immediately recognised though and Ireland are boosted by the return of Sean O’Brien, who replaces Shane Jennings at open side. A big improvement needed. 3/5
Australia: David Pocock is the king of the tackle area, an authentic openside capable of making life a misery for opposing scrum-halves, and ably assisted by Radike Samo and Rocky Elsom to comprise one of the best breakdown units in
Ireland: Sexton’s goal-kicking was way off against the United States while the back three’s tactical kicking wasn’t great either. This time around, they need to be finding touch or getting in behind Aussie full-back Kurtley Beale. 3/5
Australia: James O’Connor came on in the 46th minute against Italy and took over the goal-kicking from Quade Cooper, nailing three conversions and he retains the duties against the Irish. Fly-half Cooper, though is an equally adept goal kicker and a great tactical kicker to boot. 3½/5
Ireland: When the ball stuck in the Irish backs’ hands last week, they scored well-executed tries, three of them. Problem was, they probably left at least four more out there in a performance strewn with handling errors and poor decision-making. Needs to improve. 3½/5
Australia: There’s no better backline in world rugby when the Wallabies click and their interchangeability along the line gives them the feel of the Dutch ‘total football’ sides of the 1970s. Directed by Will Genia and half-back partner Quade Cooper, with the devastating Kurtley Beale at full-back and class acts like James O’Connor and Adam Ashley-Cooper between them, this backline can do serious damage, even with Digby Ioane out injured. 4½/5
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