So much riding on one game

THIS is it. A week before schedule, the point of no return has been reached. A victory for the Springboks would signal mission accomplished and they could even make wholesale changes for the third and final test, downgrading its importance.

A win for the British and Irish Lions at Loftus Versfeld and the final week becomes seriously focused and intense. One game and the road to immortality beckons. Defeat today, however, and the final test becomes an intolerable burden, just like that dreadful third/fourth place playoff the authorities insist goes ahead when you’ve lost the semi-final of a World Cup.

With no midweek game to focus the minds of at least half of the party, it becomes difficult. Prior to travelling, Brian O’Driscoll said he had no interest in being selected for the Lions on this tour if it didn’t result in a test series victory. While he has done everything humanly possible on this journey to deliver that outcome, he, like the rest of the back line, is totally dependent today on the performance of his front five.

The opening 15 minutes of the first test proved an unmitigated disaster for the Lions. With the home team expected to be hesitant and jittery, the Lions had to compound their insecurity and put points on the board. Unfortunately, a retreating scrum, a stuttering lineout, two missed penalties and a spurned try-scoring opportunity for Ugo Monye put paid to the best laid plans. With five changes to the starting team and four more alterations on the bench, a new direction has been mapped.

The primary focus has been on reshaping the front five with only Paul O’Connell and Gethin Jenkins surviving the cull. There is massive pressure on the broad shoulders of O’Connell today. Despite the amazing comeback by his charges last week his leadership was given no credit for the stand taken in the last quarter. The knives are out in some quarters regardless of what he does. Apart from some loose ball carrying, O’Connell has played well on this tour. Hopefully the massive physical presence of Simon Shaw at his side will have the desired effect even if, three months short of his 37th birthday, he has his limitations now at this level. While the Lions have taken a calculated gamble with selection, Peter de Villiers has remained faithful to a few players who looked more than a little vulnerable when the real pressure came on in the closing stages last week. While their excellent scramble defence saved the day, the Springbok management have worked assiduously all week to shore up the midfield where O’Driscoll and Jamie Roberts wreaked havoc. Despite no game time in six weeks Schalk Burger has been reinstated to close the inside defensive channel where he supports the No 10/12 axis so well.

His presence will also enable Pierre Spies, who made no impact last week, to adopt a wider role and run at the Lions midfield. He is the supreme athlete but without Burger was lost in Durban. Jamie Heaslip, who had developed such a magnificent understanding with Rocky Elsom in Leinster, will understand the plight of his opposite number. With the front five under so much pressure Heaslip also found it difficult to make any inroads.

WITH SO much emphasis on the scrum this week, it’s unlikely Tendai Mtawarira will enjoy anything like the dominance of Durban. My fear now is that with the necessity to replace technique with bulk, the wayward throwing of Matthew Rees and Ross Ford will hand the initiative to Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha out of touch. Shaw is not the most accomplished lineout operator, despite his size, and that will heap the pressure on O’Connell and Tom Croft.

The word emanating from the South African camp is that while they will look to play with a little bit more ball in hand, the maul which was used effectively (but sparingly) last Saturday will be unleashed with even greater ferocity this time around. Matfield was almost salivating at the prospect of its return to Loftus Versfeld where the law changes had rendered it dormant for the last two seasons. The Blue Bulls supporters are connoisseurs of the intricacies of forward play and love nothing more than the sight of a 30-metre rolling maul. The Lions’ only defence of it last week was to concede penalties. On this occasion they must kill it at source before it generates any momentum.

The key for the Lions to succeed in this contest is to keep the ball alive in the tackle and play multi-phase rugby which they did to such great effect in the second half in the ABSA Stadium. Incredibly, they made 12 line breaks in the game – a feat almost unprecedented at this level of rugby – to just one from South Africa yet only edged the try count three to two. They must convert every single chance on this occasion as they are unlikely to be as plentiful. The other prerequisite is that the indiscipline that has plagued the visitors all tour – and which allowed Ruan Piennar and Frans Steyn to build a score in the first half – simply cannot be tolerated.

Given the enormity of the changes made by the Lions management for this test where all the biggest forwards in the party have been favoured over those who may be more technically adept, the visitors pack just cannot afford to be bullied. Instead Paul O’Connell’s men must attack their focus of power last week, the Beast. Adam Jones will draw comfort from the inroads he made when introduced and must build from there. At half back Stephen Jones needs to hone his kicking game and Mike Phillips has to deliver quicker ball to the outside backs and stop looking for the first option all the time. O’Driscoll and Roberts have been electrifying as a pairing and deserve every opportunity to punish the Springboks.

Even if the Lions manage the improvement that they feel will come in the set piece, one has to say they face an enormous task today and we haven’t even mentioned the altitude factor. With eight Irish players on board a win would enhance even further the amazing achievements of Irish rugby this season.

The Lions have no more room for error and having now lost their last six tests in a row could do with a win to silence those who question the viability of the concept in the modern game.

So much riding on one game.