Plenty to chew on
Donal Lenihan: Charlie, you’re the senior analyst.
Charlie Mulqueen: Okay. No point in saying why we’re here – a certain game next Saturday. Eric’s come from Dublin to tell us why Leinster are going to win, though no doubt there’ll be rebuttals from elsewhere. The bookies are giving it to Munster by seven.
Eric Miller: “That’d be close enough to what I think. It’s hard to work Leinster out. Against Glasgow and Harlequins they were very good, and the intensity was there. They showed that in their last game against Munster as well, that they could match Munster physically.
“For Leinster it’s more a battle with themselves. If they get the combinations right for 80 minutes, rather than playing in fits and starts, then they can give Munster a real rattle. But that would require Munster to be a little below their best – though if Leinster play for the 80 then that might happen anyway.
“That’s their only real chance: if Leinster put 80 minutes together they’re in with a shout, but a lot depends on the combinations. For instance, I think Jonathan Sexton should start at 10.
“He came on the last day and it was different, he kept the line moving really well. Felipe (Contepomi) would probably be happier himself in the centre – it’d be hard to see Gordon D’Arcy losing out, but that’s a big call that Michael Cheika will have to make.
“There’s a case for not changing the 15 that played “Quins, but regardless of who he chooses, Leinster will have to be there. They’ll put the ball in behind Munster, but if they do that as badly as they did against Quins they’ll struggle.
“They’re not going to win at the grunt game, because Munster are very good at that; Leinster will have to offer a lot more and mix it. That’s a big ask, and though it’s within them, it depends on how Leinster come to the game, because we know what Munster can do. It’ll be interesting to see if Munster can reproduce the performance they gave against the Ospreys.”
Ralph Keyes: “But to do all of that Leinster will have to win primary possession. It’ll be interesting to see , for instance, if Leinster attack the line-out early – will they put Devon Toner and Malcolm O’Kelly in there to win ball to give Contepomi or Sexton a chance to feel their way into the game? That didn’t happen in other games, and that seems to affect Contepomi in particular.
Eric Miller: “It’s the latin temperament, the one downside. Back in the nineties there was a real edge playing against Gaillimh and Claw, for instance, when we won the first Celtic League final. There was a real disdain for each other because you had a lot of fellas on the Irish team, different psychologies.
“As a player I had that, but over the years you get over that and I learned to respect Munster as a team.
Donal Lenihan: “I understand why you’re saying Sexton should be picked, but from a Leinster viewpoint there are other selection issues. Shane Horgan came on and did well the last day, Sean O’Brien the same, and now Leinster don’t know what their best team is.
“They started with Isa Nacewa at ten, but I think he struggled with northern hemisphere rugby, different conditions, and it took a long time for them to put Contepomi in there.
Eric Miller: “I feel for Cheika on that one, because no-one’s really grasped the opportunity. That’s why I’m basing my opinion on what happened last weekend – Shane Horgan and Sean O’Brien have put their hands up for selection, and I don’t think Munster would handle Sean O’Brien, in particular, as well as they can handle Shane Jennings.”
Donal Lenihan: “We’re speaking ahead of Leinster’s team announcement, but I thought it was strange that Leinster didn’t start their captain the last night. Was there some logic in playing Toner and O’Kelly?”
Eric Miller: “As Leinster and Munster know each other so well, that may be one area where Leinster can get something. I think Paul O’Connell and Donncha O’Callaghan will be wary because they know their opponents know them.”
Ralph Keyes: “If you look at the Clermont and Montauban games, they’re sides that attacked the Munster line-out and denied them possession. Leinster need to go after Munster primary possession sources early – that’s their best chance.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “If Leinster don’t know their best team, by the way, it’s more a position of strength than weakness. They could conceivably leave out Gordon D’Arcy, Shane Horgan, Shane Jennings – all very good players.”
Donal Lenihan: “But your ten is your pivotal player, and that’s the position that comes with the biggest question mark here. When Contepomi was at ten with D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll outside him two years ago they were on fire, but that doesn’t seem to have happened this year.”
Ralph Keyes: “I don’t think this is the game to take the risk of starting Sexton. It’s going to be light years ahead of what he’s experienced – that’s not his fault, he just hasn’t had a run in the team. Good, bad or indifferent, Contepomi has the international experience, and I’d be very slow to leave out an international three-quarter like Gordon D’Arcy, who might eventually make the Lions tour as an injury replacement, for Jonny Sexton, who hasn’t played the position often enough.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “On the other hand, Contepomi is very vulnerable against Munster, who seem able to bustle him on the pitch. If they can get into his head they’ll try it again.”
Ralph Keyes: “They will, they’ll try everything in the book.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “But he’s had good days against Munster as well. A couple of years ago in the RDS, a new year’s day, he played Munster off the pitch and got 25 points!”
Donal Lenihan: “The thing for Leinster is they’ve been relying on their defence. If they sit back and do what they did against Quins they have no chance, they must be positive and try to win the game. They have the armoury, but apart from the Wasps game in October we haven’t seen it. Whether it’s a lack of confidence, I don’t know.”
Eric Miller: “Luke Fitzgerald and Rob Kearney kicked every ball back against Quins. That’s understandable to an extent away from home, but it wasn’t accurate. It didn’t work. Leinster need to choose when to have a go rather than having a mindset of kicking it back.”
Donal Lenihan: “Leinster beat Munster in the two Magners League games last year, and the Leinster pack stood up on both occasions. Even this year in the Magners League their pack did well in the line-out and scrums, but when Contepomi missed his kicks their game fell apart. You need to take every point that presents itself when the pressure is on. That’s where Munster are more clinical. They were under pressure but got to the Leinster 22, got two penalties, and Ronan O’Gara put them over. There’s so much depends on getting the reward for the pressure you put on.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “Is there a sense that there could be a bit of complacency in Munster? They’ve beaten Leinster comprehensively in their two games this year and psychologically they seem to have the upper hand. Yet if Contepomi had kicked his early penalties in Thomond Park against Munster the last day that game would have been very different. Will Munster be thinking “we beat these guys twice already, we have eight Lions’ – are they going to drop their guard?”
Ralph Keyes: “I think Munster’s game last Friday (against Llanelli) is going to rule that out. The performance wasn’t good and that will focus their attention, because anything like that won’t do against Leinster.”
Eric Miller: “For Leinster it’s the opposite – the performance against Glasgow was fantastic at times, they were very good and that should give them confidence for this weekend.”
Donal Lenihan: “If ever a game was teed up for Leinster, it’s this one. Leinster are playing in Dublin. And not allowing anyone in with red jerseys.”
Eric Miller: This is it! Seriously, though, I know plenty of guys from Munster who are involved with Leinster clubs. They’re giving a lot to Leinster rugby week to week and they’re fully entitled to do what they want with their tickets, to give them to family members and so on. I understand the thinking behind that mail, though it probably wasn’t worded very well.”
Donal Lenihan: “It’s like a red rag to a bull. We could name Cork guys who’ve lived in Dublin for 20 years and who bring their kids to the RDS for Leinster games and follow Leinster, except when they’re playing Munster.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “I think there’s a danger of this thing going over the top – you see it on the field, with the lads getting at Contepomi, and on the sideline, where supporters are going over the edge, whether it’s Munster fans calling Leinster “ladyboys’, or Leinster fans chanting “boring, boring Munster’.”
Donal Lenihan: “Well, I couldn’t believe it when the Leinster man of the match was announced in the RDS as “The Nivea for Men man of the match’ . . .”
Ralph Keyes: “There wasn’t much edge to the last game between them because it came after the Grand Slam, and there was a bit of a love-in going on. Much as you’d wanted a humdinger, it wasn’t on.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “The rivalry was always there, even when there were only a couple of hundred people. They still cared. But I think the fans on both sides would want to watch it.”
Eric Miller: “Regardless of the ticket squabbles I think you’ll have half-and-half in Croke Park. Going back to the 2006 semi-final, we didn’t come out of the gate, but it was deflating for us to come out and see the Munster support. That’s changed, Leinster are very well supported now, but I think it’ll just be a good atmosphere Saturday, a great day out for Irish rugby.”
Donal Lenihan: “That’s true. It’s a culmination of everything that’s been done in Irish rugby over the last 10 years. In 1997 or 1998 there was an Irish team picked with only two players from Irish clubs. The IRFU recognised that there were going to be hassles getting fellas for training and after the 1999 World Cup it was realised there was no control over players and so on. Now kids can go to Musgrave and Thomond Park or the RDS and watch Ronan O’Gara and the others and run out and touch them. They’re wearing Munster and Leinster jerseys when 10 years ago it was Man Utd and Arsenal. Kids aren’t wearing as many soccer jerseys now.”
Eric Miller: “It’s great in Dublin to see the Leinster flags on the cars. It’s the same for the Dubs championship games in the summer and now you can see the same for Leinster.
I think the atmosphere’s building because Munster supporters in Dublin are showing their colours as well. It’s such a big game for Leinster rugby, it’s a huge platform for them. It’s likely Contepomi and Rocky Elsom are going to depart, and though they can be replaced, they’ll want to go out on a high.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “At Munster-Connacht recently there were 20,000 people. I remember when there were 20! Every time Munster play now there are 15,000-20,000 supporters.”
Donal Lenihan: “But a huge number of those people have never been to a club game.”
Charlie Mulqueen:“But Munster is their club.”
Ralph Keyes: “As long as the product stays at the level it is now.”
Donal Lenihan: “And it won’t sustain itself at that level without the clubs.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “Aren’t those kids hooked, though?”
Donal Lenihan: “You could have said the same about Irish soccer in 1988 or so.”
Eric Miller: “You see a lot of families at Leinster games who’ve probably been at the kids’ games during the day. In fairness, it’s very family-oriented.”
Donal Lenihan: “The only point I’d make is that while it’s a fantastic product, there’s so much rugby outside of that, and one would be in a lot of trouble without the other.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “Talking of the clubs, there’s trouble in Limerick at the moment about Keith Earls, with Thomond and Young Munster both claiming him.”
Donal Lenihan: “The identity the Munster players have with their clubs plays a huge part in their approach in playing for Munster. I would have a fear that that might be lost down the road, as it’s very much a part of what Munster are. What’s massive for Munster now is that it’s big in Tipperary and Kerry. The Corca Dhuibhne and An Gaeltacht u12s played the interval game last weekend in Thomond Park. That kind of development is fantastic.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “Brian O’Driscoll versus Keith Earls? Brian is now a second number six – they say he’s lost pace, but he’s made up for that with so many other attributes. Still, if it doesn’t happen for him I don’t think it’ll happen for Leinster.”
Eric Miller: “He’s probably lost a yard – he’s had a lot of hard knocks, he’s physically there in every game and he has an incredible work ethic.”
Donal Lenihan: “He’s had so many hamstring injuries – and bad hamstring injuries – it’s bound to have an effect.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “Bring Keith Earls into the equation. I have a suspicion about his defence. He’s not the finished article yet and it’s in defence he may be found out.”
Ralph Keyes: “But when Brian started he wasn’t the finished article either.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “True, but if anyone will expose Keith’s defensive limitations it’s Brian and Gordon D’Arcy. Maybe I’m reading too much into tackles Keith has missed. There’s also the referee to consider. And people have said that Nigel Owens is the “Munster ref’, but he handled Leinster-Quins as well.”
Donal Lenihan: “He whistled Munster off the park against Sale.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “You couldn’t say he’s been a bad ref for Munster, in fairness.”
Donal Lenihan: “True, but there comes a time when a ref hears “they’re delighted with you in Munster’, and I think that’s what happened for the Sale game, that he thought he’d have to show he wasn’t.”
Eric Miller: “I think Alain Rolland would have been a great choice. I know he’s Leinster and Irish, but the lads respect him.”
Donal Lenihan: “And he’d understand the rivalry.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “But what about Owens?”
Ralph Keyes: “I agree with you, Charlie, he hasn’t been bad for Munster.”
Keyes: “He’s good, I think he’s up to the job, though Alain Rolland is probably the best around.”
Eric Miller: “Mind you, Owens missed a forward pass in the Leinster-Quins game.”
Donal Lenihan: “I notice that there are forward passes missed now in all games. Don’t ask me why. Moving on to the coaches, I think Tony McGahan has done an unbelievable job. He’s taken over a team which won two Heineken Cups and without question he has improved them. The skill sets as individuals have improved, they’re more rounded, I’ve seen him in the Academy and he replicates with those kids what he does with the first team. He takes no messing and he demands standards.”
Ralph Keyes: “And he’s respected by the players as a result.”
Eric Miller: “He’s excellent, the best coach to come to this counry in a long time. You see Mick O’Driscoll popping the ball, offloading . . . he’s been great. When Michael Cheika came in he had an open mind, we played a 15-man game and gave some great displays, but we didn’t have a defensive system in the first year. He went back and concentrated on that. They’re probably similar. I saw Tony McGahan on TV at Munster’s last game and he didn’t look happy. Cheika would be the same.”
Donal Lenihan: “Certainly the likes of Paul O’Connell and ROG would be known to be demanding, and the fact that they have respect for McGahan – it shows when you can command their respect. It was probably tougher for Cheika to come in as head coach, whereas McGahan came in as defence coach, got to know people and the system.”
Eric Miller: “And that helped him to get them onto the next level.”
Donal Lenihan: “That brings up the Irish coach question. For the provinces it’s a chicken-and-egg situation because they’re under pressure to win.”
Ralph Keyes: “And there are only four head coaching jobs, after all.”
Donal Lenihan: “Take Brian Walsh at Cork Con, for instance – he’s done well at AIL level, but the opportunities aren’t there. Eric, you’re getting involved in coaching.”
Eric Miller: “I’ve started off. When I retired I wanted to get into coaching, so I went back to my old school to do some, but there are no formal channel for coaches. I want to stay in Ireland and I’ve fallen into underage coaching, and I’m delighted, because you learn a lot more about yourself coaching at that level than you would with a professional team!”
Donal Lenihan: “I spoke to Reggie Corrigan recently and he had good ideas about a scrummaging school, but it’s a question of getting that off the ground.”
Eric Miller: “I was talking to Niall Woods recently and he said the IRFU seem to be in the early stages of something along those lines.”
Ralph Keyes: “It brings us back to something we touched on earlier, you need a meaningful club game to develop those coaches.”
Donal Lenihan: “Look at Jeremy Davidson. After his few years with Ballymena he went to Castres – the faraway hills are green. The Australians must be delighted because they have coaches all over the world – but then their head coach is a New Zealander!”
Ralph Keyes: “Final prediction? I think Munster hold too many aces in too many important areas. I think they’ll play at Test level intensity and it’ll be a huge step up for some of the Leinster players. If Munster reach that intensity up front then their half-backs will win the match for them. Contepomi can be very good, but he’s flaky, while Chris Whitaker hasn’t dominated the decision-making enough for my liking. I don’t think he’s added value to the half-back partnership, while against them Ronan O’Gara’s game management is second to none.”
Donal Lenihan: “The difficulty for Leinster is they can’t just press a button and play the way they did six months ago. They didn’t score a try in their last three Heineken Cup games and they look, to me, to be trying too hard to show they have the required intensity. I think there’s a little bit missing. They’ll throw everything at Munster and the likes of Shane Horgan is a proud player – I’d pick him if I were selecting the Leinster team – but I think Munster have too much. The Lions factor? Ronan O’Gara’s comments that he’d enjoy the Lions announcement for the day, and then park it – show their focus. Overall I think the Munster package is better.”
Charlie Mulqueen: “I think Contepomi is the key man, If he performs Leinster have a good chance. CJ Van Der Linde hasn’t worked out for Leinster but Rocky Elsom has, and the Leinster pack will measure up. If Contepomi kicks his goals the backs are capable of scoring tries . . . I give them every chance. The bookies favour Munster by seven. I think it’ll be tight and Munster would be relieved with a seven-point win. I go for Munster, but it’s got to change sometime. Leinster lost twice this season, but they won twice last year.”
Eric Miller: “You can’t argue with the evidence, but I think there are so many ifs about Leinster; the fact that everyone’s written them off, that those factors could help them. They’ll front up. Four or five years ago you could say Leinster didn’t do that in certain games, but you can’t question that now. There’s a big game in them, and they haven’t clicked in a while . . . it’s a big ask. If Munster are at their very best you couldn’t see them losing, but if they’re only at 98% and Leinster hit top form, then Leinster could do it.
I give Munster the edge. But not by much.”
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