Seeds of doubt
IMAGINE for one minute the row which threatened the fabric of this year’s Heineken Cup had not been resolved. A Heineken Cup without French and English sides would be the equivalent of hosting a World Cup without New Zealand and South Africa. Thankfully, common sense prevailed with the participation of all six nations guaranteed for a least another four years.
From a parochial point of view, this year’s European competition is the perfect opportunity for the participating Irish teams to erase the lingering depression over Ireland’s performances in the World Cup. Had the disaffected parties not come back into the European fold, the Magners League, along with a watered-down version of the Heineken Cup, was all that lay on the horizon.
It’s conceivable that Ireland’s elite performers would suffer in limbo without a decent opportunity for redemption. Europe offers the perfect proving ground to re-establish their credentials against some of the best players in the game.
From an Irish management perspective, this competition also offers an opportunity of wiping the slate clean in terms of individual performances in France, with a view to selecting a side based on form for the opening Six Nations game against Italy in February.
The downside is that once again the seeding system has produced an extremely lopsided draw, with Munster and Leinster in wickedly difficult pools. Having experienced a horrible month in the “pool of pain” in France, this year’s Heineken Cup draw seems warped in the extreme.
For those of a superstitious nature, the 13th season of European rugby could prove very unlucky for the Irish provinces in Pools 2, 5 and 6.
The ERC should learn from football’s Champions League, where seeding is worked out through a system of co-efficients based on a team’s results over five years in Europe, and also the ranking of their national association. For emerging sides like Chelsea, that system left them at a disadvantage as they did not qualify for the Champions League until 2003.
However, performances in very difficult pools since then earned them a co-efficient score of 99,616 points which yielded a seeding of seventh place for this year’s draw. The ERC should adopt this model to see what their draw would have been this year if the same criteria were applied.
It was no surprise Wasps director of rugby Ian McGeechan was seething when, as reigning champions, he found his side in a group with 2006 winners Munster, French club championship finalists and last year’s European Challenge Cup winners Clermont Auvergne and the top Welsh side, Llanelli Scarlets.
Leinster’s pool, with last year’s beaten finalists and two-time winners Leicester, along with arguably Europe’s most consistent side, three-time winners Toulouse, and Andy Robinson’s Edinburgh, is equally fraught with danger.
Ulster, who have failed to advance to the knockout stages since their triumphant march to glory in 1999, also face a huge task to break that sequence in a pool with Gloucester, Bourgoin and dark horses, Neath-Swansea Ospreys.
For the second year in a row, Biarritz have been presented with the sporting equivalent of a bye to the quarter-final. While the World Cup taught us a lesson in terms of demonstrating that no side is unbeatable, you can put your house on Biarritz making the knockout stages.
Last year, in a pool containing Northampton, Border Reivers and Italian side Parma, the French waltzed through becoming the first team to score maximum points with a four-try bonus accumulated in every game. The presence of an Italian side in that group ensured that Northampton, despite being relegated from the Premiership, succeeded in advancing to the quarter-final where against all odds they beat Biarritz in an appalling quarter-final in San Sebastian.
The French side made the fatal mistake of taking victory for granted on the basis that they had hammered the Saints home and away at the pool stage, and no doubt they’ve learned a harsh lesson. This year fortune has favoured them once again with the presence of another Italian side, Viadana, along with Glasgow and Alan Gaffney’s Saracens.
This tournament is the best thing to happen to northern hemisphere rugby, but it’s a considerable irritant every year that the draw is fatally unbalanced. It does the tournament no service when sides like Munster, Leicester, Toulouse, Wasps, Stade Francais and Leinster could be gone before the knockout stages.
The imbalance presented by the presence of an Italian side in the pool — by virtue of the four-try bonus system — also needs to be addressed. The only way to do so is if the current system of six pools of four teams is reduced to four pools of six teams, with the top two from each progressing directly to the quarter-finals. That will not happen, however, as the additional games that would result can’t be accommodated because of the number of weekends required for the French and English domestic leagues.
To date only eight teams have managed to win the Heineken Cup, with Martin Johnson’s Leicester Tigers the only side to retain it in 2002 with victory over Munster in Cardiff. This year, however, there is a distinct possibility that a new name could appear for the first time. In this respect, beaten 2005 finalists Stade Francais could go one better and achieve their ultimate goal of conquering Europe. Much will depend on whether coach Fabien Galthie succeeds in keeping Argentine genius Juan Martin Hernandez at the club. If he follows national coach Marcelo Loffreda to Leicester then the current English champions could well match the feat of Toulouse and win the trophy for a third time.
Other potential first-time winners are Munster’s pool opponents Clermont Auvergne and the Neath/Swansea Ospreys. Clermont have considerably strengthened an already impressive-looking squad with the addition of South African World Cup winning captain John Smit, outstanding French No 8 Julien Bonnaire and Benoit Baby from Toulouse.
Back-boned by a strong contingent of Argentine forwards in Mario Ledesma, Martin Scelzo, and Gonzalo Longo, Clermont, after experiencing European success last year in the Challenge Cup, will prove a handful.
The Ospreys are another side who have recruited well over the summer while retaining a host of well-established Welsh internationals. The addition of Dragons and Wales second row Ian Gough, scrum half Mike Phillips, former All Black Marty Holah and Tongan World Cup star Hale T-Pole will ensure that coach Lyn Jones has plenty of positive selection headaches. Behind the scrum, Justin Marshall, James Hook, Shane Williams and Sonny Parker provide pace and power.
Waiting in the wings, Gavin Henson needs a strong European showing to resurrect his flagging career.
The tournament will also be enhanced by the addition of some of the southern hemisphere’s most potent talent in recent seasons, who have chosen to swap Super 14 rugby for its European equivalent.
Clermont’s Smit will be joined by former All Blacks Byron Kelleher in Toulouse, Doug Howlett in Munster, Aaron Mauger in Leicester, and Chris Jack in Saracens, while Percy Montgomery will see out his career in Perpignan.
So, in the aftermath of such a disastrous showing in the World cup, how will the Irish fare in Europe?
As with any tournament, a good start is everything.
Ulster set the Irish challenge rolling with a home tie against Gloucester tonight followed by a trip to Bourgoin next week. Ulster have never won a Heineken Cup game in France (or for that matter in England) and their current form suggests that statistic won’t change.
Rooted to the bottom of the Magners League, their form has been abysmal and the 25-6 defeat to Glasgow last Friday will have done nothing to aid a team lacking confidence. Even Fortress Ravenhill has looked vulnerable in recent times and it seems certain at this stage that Mark McCall’s side are set to miss the knockout stage for a ninth successive season.
Leinster have also failed to hit the ground running and struggled for long periods against Connacht last Friday. With Leicester first up in the RDS tomorrow, they have very little time to rectify their shortcomings.
Next week, Toulouse lie in wait in the south of France and they will be thirsting for revenge after what Leinster did to them there in the 2006 quarter-final.
Michael Cheika, in his third and possibly final season at the helm, has recruited well over the summer in an effort to rectify obvious failings in the front five. The return of Leo Cullen and the positive start made by South African loose head Ollie Le Roux offer promise. I also feel Shane Jennings has a huge amount to offer Leinster rugby over the next few seasons.
As always, Leinster will be contenders but they are in an awful group. To qualify ahead of cup specialists Toulouse and Leicester would be a tremendous achievement in itself and much will depend on how that new combination up front competes against the Tigers on Saturday. To survive in this year’s tournament, Leinster have to win that opening clash.
Finally Munster. Their love affair with this tournament is the stuff of legend and consequently, their tame demise as champions at the hands of Llanelli last season still hurts. Declan Kidney has also recruited well over the close season with the introduction of Rua Tipoki, Paul Warrick and Kieran Lewis offering a variety of options behind the scrum. With Brian Carney added to the mix at the tail of last season and the arrival of Doug Howlett in January, the prospects look good. However, for Munster to remain in the mix by the time Howlett arrives, the famed Munster forward pack needs to rediscover its ruthlessness and hard edge.
The majority of this unit played for Ireland in France and were outplayed.
The old adage that “forwards win games and backs dictate by how much” has never been more accurate than when applied to Munster over the last ten years. With Wasps, Clermont and Llanelli lying in wait that theory will be put to the test once more.
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