Eddie punts on ‘one-score game’

I THOUGHT I understood something about betting. Clearly that is not the case as I try to get my head around the fact that Ireland are rated 4/9 favourites to beat England at Croke Park tomorrow whereas our visitors are available at 7/4.

What bemuses me is that after two matches each in the Six Nations Championship, Ireland, having scraped a narrow victory over Wales in Cardiff and lost to France in Dublin, are rated that far ahead of England, convincing winners over Scotland and somewhat less so in their defeat of Italy.

The only reassurance to be taken is that the bookies usually get it right.

Coaches like to play down their side’s prospects, but a clear sign of how far forward Ireland have come is provided by coach Eddie O’Sullivan when he boasts: “Had England beaten us three times on the bounce, then they’d feel entitled to favouritism.

“But I keep pointing out those wins were all by one score and you’ve also got to put that in the pot. There’s no extra pressure on us as favourites. We are capable of beating England but we know that in a one-score game, the other team are capable of winning as well. There won’t be many people putting their house on Ireland and I think it will be a one-score game again this time.”

Obviously, Jonny Wilkinson will have a huge bearing on the outcome. He is said to be hampered by a tight hamstring and although O’Sullivan and his captain Brian O’Driscoll are convinced he’ll be in the starting line-up, Brian Ashton claims he won’t decide until around lunchtime today.

England are already shorn of Jason Robinson, who opted out yesterday because of a neck injury to be replaced, not by his Sale Sharks teammate Mark Cueto, but by Harlequins speedster and new cap, Dave Strettle.

O’Sullivan believes that signal, Ashton plans to attack Ireland out wide. If so, that would make for a pleasant change from the Andy Robinson era.

“England have had a change of coach and with that comes a certain surge of enthusiasm from the players and I can see Ashton’s stamp on this team,” maintained O’Sullivan. “He’s got a philosophy, a head set for the game and has the personnel to do it. He has two first receivers in Jonny and Farrell to get width on the game so it’s a different England team from the autumn. It’s worked for them so far, they’ve come off two wins in the Six Nations and are quietly confident.”

Getting off to a much better start than against Wales and France and maintaining a strict discipline are two of the key issues that have dominated Ireland’s preparation for the game. From the first kick, the likes of Paul O’Connell, Donncha O’Callaghan, Denis Leamy and Simon Easterby will have to influence proceedings.

Individually and collectively, I don’t believe the Irish forwards have anything to fear from the opposition. It’s more a case of settling down quickly, winning possession and using it wisely. Even Eddie O’Sullivan agrees that hasn’t happened so far and also acknowledges the importance of restricting Wilkinson’s goalkicking opportunities.

“That will be a key factor,” he said. “I thought our discipline the last day was extraordinarily good. We gave up four penalties in the whole match and that’s got to be a record for us at Test level. If we give them fewer kicks at goal, they’ll find it very hard to score. They’ll have to score tries then. Jonny Wilkinson is lethal off the ground, his strike rate is phenomenal everywhere on the pitch and he’s got great range.”

There’s a widespread view across the channel that because Leicester outgunned Munster up front in their recent Heineken Cup game, that England will do the same to Ireland.

It’s hardly a surprise that O’Sullivan doesn’t concur: “If you think that because the Leicester pack put Munster under pressure and that four of the Leicester pack are going to beat up Ireland with six Munster players, well, I don’t buy into that logic,” he asserted.

“Don’t get me wrong, it’s a good England pack, they always have a good pack. They’re very abrasive, very aggressive. It’s where the battle lines will be drawn.”

But should that battle end up more or less even, it could well be that Ireland possess an ace in Brian O’Driscoll. He was hugely missed against France and his return, coupled with that of Shane Horgan (a two-try hero at Twickenham this time last year) to the wing, means that Ireland are fielding their number one back division.

“I enjoy playing against England and the best players and the best teams because you have a chance to pitch yourself and see how good you are as an individual and a team,” said O’Driscoll.

“Croke Park is going to hype it more and will make it more of a special game. There might be a few extra butterflies. It’s unusual, I woke up this morning and didn’t feel as wonderful as I usually do the day before a game. But that’s good, I think. That amount of nervousness so early is going to sharpen your mind for the next day.”

Ireland have the quality of player and the team spirit to beat England, especially in front of a fired-up Croke Park crowd.

Provided they play for the full 80 minutes instead of the last 60, they should make it four-in-a-row over the “auld enemy”.

And let’s hope that if it happens, Jonny Wilkinson is there in the white jersey from start to finish. It wouldn’t be the same otherwise.