Munster v Leinster in London

FIRST things first. The decision by ERC to again schedule a Munster away game on a Sunday shows scant regard to the loyalty and commitment of their support base.

Sometimes you think they are taken for granted despite what the have contributed to the competition over the years.

Bourgoin, seizing the opportunity to swell their coffers by moving the game to Geneva, are gambling on the reputation of the Munster faithful to travel. I met a number of people yesterday who, working on the principal that the French don’t favour televised Sunday games, booked flights assuming a Saturday fixture. Alas, as happened with the quarter-final against Biarritz in 2005, amongst other games involving Munster, the fans have been greatly inconvenienced. They deserve more.

By the completion of next weekend’s back to back fixtures as many as thirteen clubs could be out of contention for honours in this year’s Heineken Cup. While the competitiveness of the Celtic countries has grown significantly in recent seasons it is sad to see the complete demise of the Italian sides in this year’s competition. By virtue of Overmach Parma’s shock victory over the Newport Gwent Dragons in last season’s playoff game, Italy now boasts as many sides in this tournament as Ireland and Wales and one more than Scotland.

Benetton Treviso gave the competition fresh impetus in 2004 when they succeeded in beating Bourgoin home and away and also recorded the historic victory over previous winners Bath. Since then it has been all downhill for the Italians particularly since the majority of their international stars have fled to France and England in search of more regular competition.

In the six games to date this season Calvisano, Benetton Treviso and Overmach Parma have conceded 436 points, an average of 48 per game. With try scoring such an integral part of the qualification process, teams with an Italian side in there pool are handed a significant advantage.

It is also more noticeable this year that there is a large discrepancy in the quality of some pools compared to others. It is no surprise for example that Biarritz currently occupy the number one seeding on the basis of maximum victories and bonus points from Pool Six. In fact, victory next weekend against the Borders is certain to secure qualification in the knock out stages with two games to go. Northampton look odds-on to qualify as a best second place team by virtue of the presence of Borders and Parma in this pool.

Meanwhile Stade Francais, the Ospreys and Sale, three potential winners at the outset of the competition, continue to knock lumps out of each other in Pool Three.

Guessing the quarter-final pairings based on the seeding at this juncture of the tournament yields some interesting observations. French sides occupy seeds one and two and as a result, Biarritz and Stade Francais respectively would enjoy home ties against Northampton and Castres.

With Munster and Llanelli each on 13 points, Munster would be classified as the third seed by virtue of scoring nine tries in the tournament to date against eight for the Scarlets. The realisation that Munster’s potential home quarter-final will not be played in Ireland is now only beginning to dawn on many people. Present seeding would see Munster play Wasps, a situation which may force chief executive Garrett Fitzgerald to contemplate a venue in either Wales or France. One presumes the Millennium Stadium or the Parc de Princes in Paris (which housed 45,000 for Stade Francais’ game with Sale last weekend) would be the preferred options. If Munster end up facing French or Welsh opposition, then London Irish’s Madejski Stadium may well come into the reckoning.

More interestingly, if Munster’s try scoring record was inferior to Llanelli, they would then face the prospect of playing Leinster in a quarter-final outside this country. How bizarre would that be? While it is certain that these seedings will change over the coming weeks it nevertheless poses some serious questions for the decision makers in Irish rugby as Brian O’Driscoll’s men will also be denied a home venue due to the closure of both Lansdowne Road and the RDS should they secure a top four seeding.

If it came to pass, they’d probably opt for a London venue, though the Madejski is too small at 24,000 and Twickenham too big at 80,000.

After showing tremendous character in adversity last weekend, Leinster face a major challenge in France on Saturday. Agen have now witnessed first hand the difficulties that Leinster are experiencing due to injury in the front row and will seek to capitalise on this to a far greater degree next weekend.

At present, due in the main to the absence of Felipe Contepomi, Leinster are being forced to improvise many aspects of their game. Denis Hickie is being utilised as an auxiliary kicker out of hand to compensate for Christian Warner’s shortcomings with the boot. Likewise place kicking has become a hit and miss affair with Girvan Dempsey and Gordon D’Arcy having mixed fortunes recently. The importance of an 80%-plus place kicker was demonstrated once again on Sunday with Ronan O Gara’s accuracy keeping Munster in the game when under severe pressure from Cardiff. Saturday’s game is pivotal for Leinster. Another away defeat would place them in a very precarious position.

Munster, having weathered storm in Cardiff, will take much from that game. It is always an advantage with only a six day turnaround to have the second game at home. With Heineken Cup days in Thomond Park as we know it about to change forever this penultimate game in the old stadium offers Munster the unprecedented opportunity of winning twelve Heineken Cup games in succession. That is sure to inspire the crowd even more.

While a Munster victory looks odds on, the acquisition of a bonus point could also be vital given that Leicester look like arriving in Limerick next January unbeaten since the loss against Paul O’Connell’s men at Welford Road. It would be a major plus for Munster to arrive at that stage more than five points ahead of Martin Corry’s side.

Should that be the case, the desire to complete eleven years of Heineken Cup rugby at this venue before its redevelopment would provide ample motivation for victory.