Capitalising on Scotland’s weak set-pieces could be the key

RECENT events ensure Scotland’s visit to Lansdowne Road Saturday will be greeted by caution and respect from all in the Irish squad.

The fact that our Celtic cousins will provide the last opposition for a championship game (Wanderers permitting) in rugby headquarters also offers a sense of nostalgia for anyone associated with the code in this country.

The penultimate round of this year’s Six Nations championship can best be described as “movement day.” With the four teams locked together on four points in direct opposition, this weekend provides the opportunity for two of those to emerge from the pack. The Dublin game and the France-England clash in Paris are pivotal.

When Scotland beat France in their opening game, the tournament was immediately turned on its head. As a consequence, Murrayfield was full for the first time in years when Frank Hadden’s men hosted England last Saturday week.

But can Scotland perform with the same level of intensity away from home? On this occasion there will be no flaming swords from the “Braveheart” extras to lift their spirits as they take the field. That said, they travel under no pressure given the excellence of their performances. While they lost on the road already in Cardiff, the dismissal of the experienced Scott Murray after 20 minutes was central to their demise.

The turnaround in Scottish fortunes since the appointment of Hadden to replace former Leinster coach Matt Williams has been incredible. In a short space of time, he has instilled a level of composure and confidence blatantly lacking last season.

When interviewed in the aftermath of the England victory he was asked, “at what stage did you think, yes we could win this one?”

His answer - “sometime last week actually” - said it all.

Scotland provide a formidable challenge to Ireland’s aspirations of winning a Triple Crown and championship. To date they have executed a limited game plan to perfection. However, they are far from the finished article and have a number of weaknesses Ireland must exploit.

Chief amongst those is the vulnerability of the set-piece. Their scrum is the weakest in the tournament and is an area that Ireland must attack.

Surprisingly, the other area of potential vulnerability is the lineout. I say that in the context that for years this was an area of strength. In the championship to date, the Scots have rotated their hookers principally because they have no standout performer. Dougie Hall started against both France and England but on both occasions his throwing was suspect. In the England game alone Scotland lost five lineouts. Against Wales, Scott Lawson was handed the number two jersey with Ross Ford enjoying game time off the bench. All three are suspect with the darts.

To address this issue, Hadden has recalled Murray and Nathan Hines, who only came out of a self-imposed international retirement for the England game. They are a formidable duo. Yet their effectiveness will be dictated by the accuracy of the throwing.

It is imperative therefore, that Ireland apply pressure in the air on the early Scottish lineouts to undermine the frail confidence of Hall. The fact that Ireland’s second row combination will not be finalised until tomorrow is an unwelcome distraction.

Scotland’s lack of attacking options behind the scrum has seen them develop their kicking game in an effort to dominate territory and force the opposition into conceding penalties. In Mike Blair, Dan Parks, Hugo Southwell and Chris Patterson they possess numerous quality kicking options.

In terms of scoring potential, Ireland are infinitely better served and possess far more game breakers. Scotland’s meagre return of four tries in the tournament underlines this weakness. Because of the vulnerability of their set piece, Scotland have relied heavily on controlling the breakdown. Over the years, all the successful Scottish sides were blessed with quality back row forwards. Finlay Calder, John Jeffrey, Derek White, Ian Paxton, John Beattie and Rob Wainwright spring readily to mind.

The current back row of Jason White, Simon Taylor and Ally Hogg has been outstanding in the opening games and created havoc against England. Ireland’s back row of David Wallace, Denis Leamy and Simon Easterby face a huge challenge in negating Scotland’s strength at the breakdown.

In their games to date, Scotland have succeeded in slowing down opposition ball at the ruck. Ireland will have to be far more ruthless in clearing out this area. At times they are too passive. In the second half against Wales, when the forwards produced quick ruck ball, the quality of the three-quarters showed through.

Despite their two victories, Scotland travel to Dublin as underdogs in most people’s eyes. With confidence at an unprecedented level for this particular squad, they will attack Ireland from the off. All season I have bemoaned that fact that Eddie O Sullivan’s men have been so ineffective in the opening quarter. While it ultimately cost Ireland the opportunity for an unlikely victory in Paris, it may also have proved fatal against Wales had Stephen Jones not been forced to withdraw.

Ireland must boss proceedings from the kick-off Saturday and ensure that the Scots are pinned deep in their own territory for as long as possible. Scotland have relied on their excellent defence to carry them through too many games this season. That can’t continue forever.

The onus, therefore, is on the Irish front five to produce the type of quality ball to maximise Ireland’s competitive advantage behind the scrum. If they allow this game to develop into a dogfight, Scotland are capable of making life miserable for any team. Ultimately, Ireland have the stronger team and victory is entirely in their hands.