Irish keep reputations intact

WITH phase two of the Heineken Cup pool stages now completed, the Irish sides can look forward to the Christmas break with reputations intact.

In theory, with two rounds of pool games to go, 18 of the 24 sides that set out in the competition have a mathematical chance of progressing to the knockout stages. In terms of outright winners, only a handful have a realistic hope.

Last weekend, Ulster regained some lost pride with an outstanding victory over Stade Francais in Ravenhill. Given they were drawn in a very difficult group along with the Parisiens, Gloucester and the Cardiff Blues, it was always going to be difficult. Victory last Saturday has presented them with a lifeline.

For Munster and Leinster, their passage to the quarter-finals is far more clear-cut. Leinster and Newcastle are the only two unbeaten teams to date. With Newcastle facing a difficult journey to Perpignan, Leinster have a strong chance of remaining undefeated, thus securing top seeding. That could prove vital.

Friday night’s narrow victory over Bourgoin was a huge psychological victory for Declan Kidney’s men. Given the outcry that followed Bourgoin’s performance and team selection in Dublin, they were always going to come out fighting at home.

Prior to Friday, Leinster had only tasted one victory in ten seasons of the European competition on French soil. One could sense the level of anxiety in the Leinster camp in the build up to the return fixture. When it comes to addressing the important issues, nobody does it better than Kidney. He has challenged this talented group of players to rid the element of self-doubt that has hung over them for the past few seasons. When Bourgoin took the lead with a dubious try in the final ten minutes, the character of the side was called into question.

Ironically, in the facile victory at Lansdowne Road, Brian O’Driscoll failed to score. It is the sign of true genius that when the need is greatest, the talented perform. On Friday, O’Driscoll scored two tries.

His second in the dying minutes was a magnificent solo effort that rescued the game for his team. Last season, they would not have recovered. One senses Kidney is working his magic once again.

Despite the fact that so many teams remain in contention for qualification, the winners will emerge from a familiar, select grouping. Leicester are now the bookies’ favourites on the strength of highly impressive back-to-back victories over holders Wasps. Warren Gatland’s side are barely holding on.

The intensity and pace of those two games was up with test level. With Johnson and Back focused solely on their club, the hunger lacking over the past two seasons has been rekindled.

Despite Newcastle’s unbeaten run, Leicester offers England’s best opportunity of retaining the trophy. Unfortunately, with Treviso’s heavy defeat in Bath last weekend it looks highly unlikely that Scotland or Italy will be represented beyond the pool stage.

While the Gwent Dragons and the Ospreys still harbour high hopes of qualification, there is a serious danger that Wales may also lack representation in the quarter-final stages for the first time.

Of the French, Toulouse offer the most serious challenge, even if they are not playing with the fluidity that one expects from such a gifted squad. However, with the quarter-finals being played in favourable conditions in April, one can never write off this talented outfit. Stade Francais, despite last weekend’s performance will also offer a serious challenge.

The other French side that have impressed me is Biarritz. Their presence in pool one along with Wasps and Leicester means at least one title contender will exit after the preliminary stages.

That leaves both Leinster and Munster as the only other two sides with realistic title ambitions. Two seasons ago, with a clear home path to the final mapped out for them, Leinster blew it in the semi final against Perpignan. With potentially the best back line in the competition, their ultimate quest for success will rely on the ability of their forwards to deliver in the bigger challenges that inevitably lie ahead.

For Munster, the problem is all too familiar. When the heat is on to deliver and backs are against the wall, there is no better forward unit in the competition than the Munster eight. They proved that in Welford Road a few seasons ago. Given the quality of

Leicester’s forward play at present, a repeat clash would be mouth watering.

Let’s hope it doesn’t arise until the final.

To get that far, it is imperative that Munster recaptures their scoring edge out wide. Of eight tries scored in the competition to date, five have come via the forwards. By way of contrast, Leinster’s backs have scored seventeen. With the likelihood of a home quarter final, even at Lansdowne Road, I fancy Munster to reach the last four once again.

It is vital therefore that the Munster forwards produce quicker ball and the team as a whole plays at a higher tempo than has been the case. Arriving at the right balance in the back row will be a key element in ensuring that this happens. If Munster can play this high tempo game and increase the quality of penetration and delivery from their mid field, then they have a chance. Without it, they will come up short once again. That is the challenge that this squad faces between now and the penultimate stages of the competition.