Why Hayes is Ireland’s key player

WITH the hurling and football championships now reaching their conclusive stage and the rugby season upon us, thoughts of the forthcoming World Cup are exercising the minds of the sporting public.

From the player’s perspective, particularly those on the edge of selection, the announcement of the panel, on Sunday, will have dominated their thinking for the past three months.

The World Cup is now only five weeks away. This competition has grown from a reluctant beginning in 1987 to where it is now, the third biggest global sporting event behind its soccer equivalent and the Olympic games. For players on this side of the world, their careers will be judged on their participation in Lions tours and World Cups. As both only occur at four-year intervals, the desire to make the plane is huge.

Next Sunday morning at 11am, Ireland coach Eddie O’Sullivan will announce his 30-man squad for the forthcoming event. Competition for places has never been so intense.

The majority of the squad can be predicted with certainty; the selection of the final few positions could mean the difference between success and failure.

It is uncertain whether Ireland will go with the traditional split of 16 forwards and 14 backs, or whether competition will dictate otherwise. Persistent injuries to the likes of Shane Horgan, John Hayes and Emmett Byrne, along with Frankie Sheahan’s appeal, cloud the issues further.

Thankfully, yesterday’s ERC reversal affords Frankie the opportunity of fulfilling his dream of playing in a World Cup. How ironic that his nightmare should end back in Australia where it all began last May.

The reported decision to bring three scrum-halves and hookers will impact on the management’s selection options hugely. When New Zealand toured South Africa in 1996, they were the first touring party to bring three players in specialist positions. Their reasoning was simple. On long tours, having your test scrum half and hooker involved in preparing and participating in the mid-week game meant that two key players never had a break during the entire tour. Just think what it was like for Ciaran Fitzgerald as captain of the 1983 Lions, being involved in 18 consecutive games as either a player or sub?

With no restrictions on the numbers touring with national sides, tour parties expanded to 37 or more players incorporating all specialist positions. However, the participation agreement for the World Cup restricts each country to a maximum of 30 players.

Ireland have a week between all their games, so a case could be made for travelling with just two in the specialist positions as replacements can be flown-in within 24 hours. In fact, there are strong indications that England will place reserve players in Australia, ready to be called into the squad at a moment’s notice.

AT HALF-BACK, Peter Stringer and Guy Easterby, along with David Humphries and Ronan O’Gara, are certain to travel. The third scrum-half is a clear race between Neil Doak and Brian O’Meara. While Geordan Murphy and Girvan Dempsey are unrivalled for the two full-back slots, injury considerations and the number of forwards selected will dictate the composition of the three-quarters chosen.

At this stage Kevin Maggs, Brian O’Driscoll, Denis Hickie and John Kelly (subject to recovery from last Saturday’s injury) can be sure of a sojourn Down Under. The injury to Shane Horgan has clouded the issue in with regard to the remaining places. A fit Horgan is a certainty to be selected given his try-scoring rate on the wing for Ireland and his consistent form for Leinster in the centre. Anthony Horgan’s selection may be dictated by his namesake’s match fitness. Should Ireland decide to travel with only 13 backs then the remaining place is a straight shoot-out between Johnny Bell and Rob Henderson.

While Hendo had a hugely successful Lions tour, and is also a player for the big occasion, recent injuries and Bell’s outstanding form against Tonga and Samoa could see the decision go in favour of the Ulster man.

Up front, competition for places is intense, particularly in the back five of the scrum. Props Reggie Corrigan, Marcus Horan and John Hayes are certain to travel. Hayes’ recent calf muscle injury will be of huge concern to the Ireland management. The cupboard is distinctly bare for cover at tight head, with the recent retirement of Paul Wallace and the injury to Emmet Byrne creating further problems in this area. The inclusion of Simon Best in the squad for the Scotland game on Saturday offers him another opportunity. However one feels that this World Cup has come too soon for him. The experiment of playing Corrigan at tight head on the summer tour and again last Saturday has not been a success. He is far more effective on the loose-head side. Hayes is now Ireland’s most valuable player.

At hooker, Keith Wood is a shoo-in and will also captain the squad. Shane Byrne and Frankie Sheahan will now renew their intense rivalry, as both will make the trip. Sheehan’s inclusion will also give a major lift to the whole squad.

The back five of the scrum poses a real selection headache. Form dictates that Paul O’Connell, Malcolm O’Kelly and Donnacha O’Callaghan must be selected. The omission of O’Callaghan from the squad for Murrayfield is surprising, as he has been given no starting opportunity in the warm up games. I hope it is because he is already pencilled in.

The remaining second row berth is between Leo Cullen and Gary Longwell. While Cullen was the more impressive of the two against Italy last Saturday, it is likely that Longwell will just about sneak it. In the current squad, Ireland possess eight back row forwards, all of whom are capable of performing at international level. O’Sullivan’s first choice back row of Victor Costello, Anthony Foley and Keith Gleeson have already been selected. Add to them Alan Quinlan, who has been in excellent form over the last two seasons. Of the remaining four Eric Miller seems to be ahead of his rivals. He, along with David Wallace, Simon Easterby, and Kieran Dawson have also been included in the squad for next Saturday, implying that the difficult decisions have yet to be made.

On the hard grounds in Australia, O’Sullivan will want at least two players of proven quality to compete at open-side. If he decides to bring only five back row forwards, then Miller seems to be the one in favour. In my view, a fit David Wallace is a must for Ireland. His proven ball carrying ability and genuine pace would add hugely to any of the back row positions and increase Irelands bench options. At his best, Wallace can be devastating. For that reason, Ireland must bring six back row forwards. While the likes of Easterby and Dawson will be extremely unlucky to lose out, history shows that the attrition level in the back row is normally very high, and as a result it is likely that replacements will be necessary in this sector.

Whatever squad O’Sullivan announces next Sunday, the only thing we can say with certainty is that it will be strongest group of players ever to represent Ireland in the rugby World Cup. For the players, the waiting is almost over; the end of the beginning is nigh.