This one’s going down to the wire

By Donal Lenihan

The minimum expectation is a place in the quarter-finals, with many predicting advancement to the semi-finals for the first time. The preparation, which over the past four months alone has seen the squad undertake training in such diverse locations as Poland and Bilbao, will now be put to the ultimate test.

The Pool A game against Argentina tomorrow has huge implications for Irish rugby. After the humiliating exit to the Pumas in the 1999 quarter-final play-off, the IRFU invested heavily in the national side to ensure that such an event would not reoccur. At a time when the union is encountering huge financial constraints, the investment in the national side demands a quarter-final slot as a minimum.

Argentina’s impressive sequence of results over the summer lifted the expectation level on them coming into this competition. It is clear that level of expectancy weighed heavily on their shoulders against Australia in the opening match. In a nutshell, they failed to perform under pressure. There lineout was totally non-functional, mainly due to the inadequate throwing of hooker Mario Ledesma.

Since then they have regrouped, albeit against minnows Namibia and Romania. The draw, however, has been unkind to them and having to play Romania last Wednesday will have certainly effected their preparation for tomorrow’s test. Despite all those factors, this game will go to the wire.

Much has been made of the power of the Argentinean forwards.

Their scrum is certainly one of the most powerful in world rugby and if they are allowed impose themselves, it will severely restrict the effectiveness of Ireland’s back row. However, on the four occasions the sides have met over the past four years, the scrum has never been the decisive factor. Whether or not it will be tomorrow depends on how quickly John Hayes has been fast-tracked to match fitness.

For me, one of the key battles will happen out of touch. If Ireland can deprive Argentina of the ball from the lineout, then a huge step will be taken on the road to victory. In the modern game, there are twice as many line-outs as scrums. Against Namibia, in atrocious conditions, Ireland’s lineout put huge pressure on the Namibian throw. Fredrico Mendez, who has replaced Ledesmo at hooker for this game, is a converted prop. His throwing is every bit as suspect as the player he replaces.

It is imperative therefore that Ireland’s principal jumpers are hoisted with regularity on the opposition throw in order to put even further pressure on Mendez. By depriving Argentina of primary possession at the lineout, Ireland will minimise the opportunity for the Puma forwards to develop their powerful rolling maul.

Eddie O’Sullivan’s backrow selection for this game is revealing.

By selecting three big men in Costelloe, Quinlan and Easterby, he is trying to stop the Argentine driving game from developing momentum around the fringes. The extra height will also offer more options at the lineout.

However, to win this game, Ireland must do more than just stop the opposition. They must not be afraid to create out wide through a superior back-line. The decision to go into the game without a true open-side flanker in Keith Gleeson is a gamble for that reason. While it is vital that the Irish pack takes on their Argentinean counterparts, they do not want to get involved in a war of attrition. The likes of O’Driscoll and Hickie must receive the ball early and in space. Australia showed that by using the width of the pitch, they had the Argentinian defence under all sorts of pressure. While their execution left them down at times, the idea was right.

It is incredible to think that Ireland has scored 15 tries in this competition to date and yet the name of Brian O’Driscoll has failed to appear on the score sheet. History has shown that in the biggest games O’Driscoll has always performed. He is a man for the big occasion. To date, Denis Hickie has been our most impressive back.

Argentina’s decision to play ace goal-kicker Gonzala Quesada at out-half was highly predictable after Felipe Contepomi’s return of 25% from placed balls against Australia. If further proof was needed, we saw again last Saturday when South Africa played England that failure to convert your penalties is suicidal at this level. Had Jonny Wilkinson swapped places with Louis Koen, then South Africa would have won the game. Quesada was the highest points scorer in the 1999 World Cup. It is imperative therefore that Ireland are at their most disciplined with regard to the concession of penalties.

Given the moderate opposition that Ireland has faced in this competition to date, it is difficult to assess the level at which the team is currently performing. While Argentina under-performed against Australia, the pace and intensity of that game will stand to them.

The difficulty from Ireland’s point of view is that they were never put under any pressure by either of their opening two opponents. This can create bad habits and one hopes that it hasn’t left Ireland short.

In times past, Ireland lacked the experience and street wisdom to come through tight games of this nature. This side is the most experienced that Ireland has ever put on a rugby field. Seven of the players have in excess of 40 caps each. Two years of preparation has now come down to 80 minutes.

It could well be the 80th minute before the outcome is resolved.