Waiting for a roar
With the opening seven games of this tour consigned to history, the slate is now wiped clean. Test games are totally different to provincial tour matches. Success or failure tomorrow for the Lions will shape the outcome of this entire expedition.
Final confirmation of the Lions team on Wednesday ended all the speculation - well, almost. The stated reversal of roles for Jason Robinson and Josh Lewsey appears to be Clive Woodward’s final attempt to muddy the waters. Selection for the first Test has been based almost exclusively on experience. Form has not been the sole arbiter. This is based on the dangerous assumption that players will perform simply because they have done so in the past.
The selection policy throughout the tour has been difficult to understand. Tom Shanklin and Andrew Sheridan are cases in point. Throughout Wales’ successful campaign, Shanklin excelled in the centre. Yet the first time he appeared in his more favoured position on tour was for the last 30 minutes against Southland last Tuesday.
Likewise, Sheridan was earmarked for a Test spot at loose head when he lined out against the Maoris. Having been withdrawn at half time, he has failed to start a game since. Against Southland, Matt Stevens, despite playing tight head against Otago three days earlier, was preferred at loose head. When both Sheridan and Shanklin were introduced in the second half, they made notable contributions.
The biggest talking point over the past few days has been the selection of Jonny Wilkinson at centre, where he hasn’t started at international level since 1999. The theory behind this is that he offers an alternative kicking option to Stephen Jones at out-half. On the evidence of the one game he has played on tour so far, his kicking game has looked hugely suspect. Given that Henson has played much of his rugby in the No 10 jersey, he could have fulfilled this function with relative ease. He is a prodigious kicker out of hand and it would also have satisfied the criteria of familiarity with the inside backs as Dwayne Peel, Jones and Henson have appeared regularly for Wales. At worst, Henson would be a better option on the bench than Will Greenwood.
By way of comparison, Graham Henry has resisted the attraction of selecting Byron Kelleher at scrum-half in order to place the three Crusaders’ inside backs, Justin Marshall, Dan Carter and Aaron Mauger together, despite concerns about Mauger’s defensive capabilities.
Up front, Shane Byrne has deservedly held off the challenge of Steve Thompson to secure his Test place. He now has a huge responsibility given the line-out is the one area where the Lions will seek to dominate. In that respect, Ben Kay has been selected ahead of Danny Grewcock, yet Kay struggled to secure a starting place with Leicester throughout the season ahead of Martin Johnson and Louis Deacon. Despite the need for physicality, Grewcock’s suspect temperament has relegated him to the reserves.
Tomorrow’s game has another knock-on effect - win and the Lions are competitive right up to the last minute of the third Test. Lose and the cracks start to appear.
To date, Gareth Thomas, Robinson, Wilkinson and Richard Hill have managed just one full game on tour. While they may enter the Test series fresher than any previous Lions team, they also do so with less game time together than any other. There is a distinct lack of familiarity with all the combinations that have been selected.
The advantage therefore of being together for over five weeks is negated somewhat. On tour, the Lions generally hold the advantage in the first Test given that their opponents are ring rusty. This was certainly a factor in the comprehensive victory in the opening test against Australia in 2001. Nobody will know this better than Graham Henry, hence his inclusion of four Crusaders backs on home territory.
The selection also confirms that the Lions will play a kicking game based primarily on territory. The opening tour games have been characterised by a lack of variation in the lineout and an absence of the driving maul. Expect that to change tomorrow.
If New Zealand are vulnerable, then it is up front. The decision not to include Jonno Gibbes deprives the All Blacks of an option at the tail of the line-out, and the Lions will seek to exploit this. They will also seek to engage the New Zealand front five in a war of attrition. In this respect, Anton Oliver is a massive loss to Henry. The other key factor in the game’s outcome is the weather. Wind and rain are regular visitors to Christchurch, and indeed heavy rain is forecast for tomorrow. Given the pressure game the Lions are likely to unveil, poor conditions would suit them better. It would certainly negate the advantage the All Blacks have behind the scrum.
The tactical approach of the Lions has seen Henry recall Leon McDonald at full back. He is more solid in the basics than Mils Muliaina, who excels in broken play. Henry’s conservative selection would suggest they aim to nullify any perceived advantage by the Lions up front in the opening period. Should the game loosen up in the final quarter, Henry will introduce the pace and power of Byron Kelleher, Rico Gear and Muliaina off the bench.
By way of comparison, I am surprised to see Shane Horgan and Greenwood on the Lions bench. Greenwood has won favour as back-up in case Wilkinson is exposed in the centre. Surely Horgan, given his familiarity with Brian O’Driscoll, could have fulfilled this function, allowing Shane Williams to be introduced should the Lions be in need of tries. While I can understand why Williams hasn’t been included from the start, the ability to introduce him would have provided greater attacking options for Woodward.
So far, there has been no inspirational moment - no John Bentley try against Transvaal or Scott Gibbs flattening the massive Oz Du Randt in South Africa in 1997. Recall O’Driscoll’s outstanding solo effort in the first Test in Brisbane or the demolition of the Queensland Reds, Super 12 semi-finalists, by 48-8 in 2001.
On the front foot, the Lions have been disappointing. O’Driscoll has performed miracles when his team needed it most and tomorrow the Lions need something special from their captain. It is a massive game for him.
With the top coaching personnel working behind the scenes, one hopes the Lions will unleash something special. If New Zealand are vulnerable, it is at this stage of the Test series, and it is vital that the Lions take advantage.
I believe the outcome will be tight, perhaps a margin of six points. With question marks hanging over the selection of Robinson, Wilkinson, Hill and Kay, New Zealand hold the advantages. It is highly unlikely they will fail to maximise them.
Yet they said the same in Brisbane at this stage four years ago...
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