Irish long way off top four, claims Kirwan
Kirwan believes established forces New Zealand, England, Australia and France still have an edge in terms of experience and talent.
South Africa, he believes, have ground to make up, opening the door for Eddie O'Sullivan's men to be the dark horses Down Under.
"Just a few months ago they were playing for the Six Nations Championship and they have to be respected for that," Kirwan. "They're a very good, complete and disciplined side with a few players who would be rated as world class stars."
But Kirwan, in Limerick to prepare his Italian side for today's World Cup warm-up match at Thomond Park (3pm) is convinced the trophy will ultimately be fought out and won by one of the big rugby playing nations.
"I think experience and recent form points to one of those four teams with England and the All Blacks probably better positioned than anyone."
Kirwan's Italians face a major challenge in the forthcoming tournament, their task made more difficult by having to play four matches in 14 days, against New Zealand, Tonga, Canada and Wales.
"It's a pretty tough ask having to play Tonga three days after the All Blacks and, with a six-day break before Canada, the fourth match against Wales another three days after."
No wonder, then, he is envious of Ireland, whose shortest break between matches is six days. "I think we got a pretty rough deal but we're stuck with it and have to prepare as best we can. I think our World Cup quarter-final will be against Tonga and the semi-final against Canada. Realistically, despite natural ambition, we won't beat the All Blacks so we will have to concentrate on the other three."
For the moment both Ireland and Italy are content to focus on today's game, described from both camps as an important stepping stone to the World Cup. Ireland, through coach Eddie O'Sullivan and captain Brian O'Driscoll, have this week continuously emphasised how physical the Italians are in combat, but today Kirwan wants more mental toughness than physical from his charges.
Captain Allesandro Troncon admitted it is the nature of the Italians to experience highs and lows during any one particular game. "We have got to get to the point where we can keep our composure from the start to the finish of the game. Some players do but some players do not, and that is a problem for Italian rugby."
Kirwan declined to make excuses for last week's heavy defeat by Scotland in Murrayfield, even though the Scots scored 17 of their 47 points when the Italians were reduced to 14 men.
"It's not about making excuses, it's about redressing the problems we had in that game and about putting in a proud performance at Thomond Park," he said. "I think, and I take some of the blame for this, we didn't prepare ourselves mentally for a Test game. Because it was not a Six Nations match perhaps we didn't quite put all the attention to detail that you should do for an international game. I hope we have all learned from this.
"OK, it's early and our focus is on the World Cup but I think Italian players have to believe in themselves, believe in the team's ability to throw down a challenge. We have got to recognise that we are capable of achieving much more.
"Sure, Scotland scored a lot of points in a condensed period of the game but my worry is that we conceded 19 penalties and that hadn't happened since I took charge of the team.
"We just need to be more sure of ourselves. It wasn't much fun last week. To have fun and enjoy ourselves we need more commitment and focus which, I hope, we'll find in Limerick.
"Since we last met Ireland in the Six Nations we have taken a different approach. I'm generally pretty pleased with the progress of the players. As far as technique is concerned, we can be very good when we put it together. I think what we need to do now is to realise that we are an established Six Nations side; that we are a Six Nations side every time we take the training paddock and when we take the field and that we start acting and performing like one.
"When we play well we are a very committed side and are very competitive but we can't afford to relax for any length of time. It's all about concentration and self-belief. Which are the hardest things to work on.
"With self-belief you need sacrifice, need to make sure you do all the right things to perform and you certainly need mental strength to ensure you get to enjoy yourself on the pitch. Enjoyment is a very high priority with Italian players in particular."
Irish counterpart O'Sullivan has succeeded in introducing a more focused approach from a side that has racked up unprecedented success in the last 18 months.
"Of course we want to win," he said. "We have planned to and will do our best to utilise all of the players in the squad before we pick our 30 for the World Cup. There is a bit of experimentation but I'm happy we have a team capable of stretching our winning sequence. Italy will be tough and very physical. We'll treat them with respect but really, at this stage, all we can do is focus in on what we want to achieve in terms of development."
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