Will real Ireland stand up?
It was evident in Adelaide last Sunday that the consequences of defeat to Argentina weighed heavily on the minds of the players and certainly inhibited their performances. Watching the team disembark from the bus at the Adelaide Oval, it struck me how ashen-faced the players looked. Regardless of the talk, they were feeling the pressure.
Despite the fact Australia and Ireland have now qualified for the next phase, there is a huge incentive for success in tomorrow's final pool A game. Victory will almost certainly guarantee a place in the World Cup semi-final given that the pool winners should meet Scotland next. However, don't discount the possibility that Fiji could beat the Scots tomorrow.
As a consequence, talk this week that Ireland was going to select a weakened side was rubbish. It was never going to happen. I am certain both sides are playing to avoid France who are improving with every game.
The key issue in the build-up to this game was once again who would wear the number 10 jersey. The fact it has passed to Ronan O'Gara reflects a U-turn in selection that Eddie O'Sullivan did not really want to make. David Humphreys has consistently been his first choice when both have been available. To change at this stage of the competition is a reflection of what happened last Sunday.
While O'Gara made a number of uncharacteristic errors after his introduction, the pace of Ireland's attack certainly picked up. To win tomorrow Ireland must score tries. O'Gara's inclusion may increase that likelihood. This clash will provide a total contrast in style to what we saw in Adelaide last weekend. Where Argentina play a forward-orientated driving pattern, devoid of backline movement, Australia have developed an all-action style played at a ferocious pace, encompassing the full width of the pitch. That they continue to select two openside wing forwards in Phil Waugh and George Smith is further evidence they intend to continue with this pattern. As a result, the reintroduction of Keith Gleeson to the Irish side was very predictable.
It is very clear the Aussies are smarting that Ireland was placed ahead of them in the recent IRB rankings. They fully intend to rectify that and have used it internally as a motivational factor.
The competitive nature one always associates with Australian teams is currently creating an air of discontent within their squad.
Certainly Chris Latham, the man who turned his back on Munster earlier this year, is less than impressed with his omission from the side to face Ireland. Despite scoring five tries in last Saturday's demolition of Namibia, Eddie Jones has decided to stick with rugby league convert Mat Rogers at full back. It is the right call.
With a number of key players restored to full fitness since the Tri Nations series, Australia have hit the ground running in this competition. The back three of Sailor, Roff and Rogers are devastating in attack and will test Ireland's defensive qualities to the full. The inclusion of Matt Burke to partner Elton Flatley in the centre is a surprise. As a result, Ireland's midfield combination of Maggs and O'Driscoll is stronger. Despite the three wins in the competition to date, I can't escape the feeling Ireland has not played to their true potential. What is certain is that in order to win either of their next two games, they will have to be at their very best.
Given that this encounter takes place under the closed roof of the Telstra Dome, ground conditions will be ideal for the type of game Australia favour. For Ireland to survive they will quickly have to adjust to the pace at which the Wallabies attempt to play. The best way of achieving this is to control the quality of possession the Aussies receive at the set piece.
Against Argentina in the opening game, David Lyons was inspirational at the base of the scrum. It is imperative the Ireland back row refuse to give him the same latitude. If he breaks the first line of defence, alarm bells will start ringing.
The other key element will be the battle around the ruck and maul. In Perth last June when the two sides last met, Australia were very successful in adapting their pick and drive game. I am sure Jones will use similar tactics in an attempt to suck in as many Irish defenders as possible.
A decisive factor in Ireland's victory over the Pumas was their organisation in defence, which was crucial in the last 10 minutes of the game. While it is likely the point of the Australian attack will be more varied, Ireland's discipline in defence will have to be even greater.
The most disappointing aspect of Ireland's World Cup campaign to date has been the lack of penetration behind the scrum. It is clear Denis Hickie is in the form of his life. The time has now come for the likes of Horgan, O'Driscoll and Maggs to take on their Australian counterparts in similar fashion.
Ireland has prepared assiduously for this World Cup. On this occasion, the quality of their performance will be more important than the result.
It is imperative, given the quarter-final next weekend, that Ireland play to their true form. If they do, then Australia can be put under serious pressure. If they perform like they did in the opening half against Argentina, then they will be in serious trouble. The result depends on which Ireland turns up on the day.
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