Ready to explode

DESPITE the fact that the semi-final pairings had been predicted with virtual certainty prior to the outset of the World Cup competition, the interest in this weekend’s two clashes is phenomenal.

While the All Blacks look set to confirm their pre-tournament billing to reach the final, England’s advance is less certain.

This morning’s head-to-head sees southern hemisphere giants New Zealand and Australia battle for supremacy. The Wallabies have struggled throughout this campaign, and have been subjected to severe criticism in their own country. Hosting a tournament of this nature can have two effects on a side. Home support will either drive a team to unprecedented heights or the pressure to succeed can weigh too heavily on their shoulders. The latter certainly seems to be the case with Australia.

Having witnessed New Zealand in the flesh in their quarter-final clash with South Africa last weekend, they are even more powerful than I thought. The back three of Rokocoko, Muliaina and Howlett are electric. Moreover, their front five, which have been suspect all year, performed admirably against a massive Springbok pack. In the back row, Jerry Collins and Richie McCaw are outstanding athletes, with a phenomenal work rate. Their captain Ruben Throne is considered by many to be lucky to have a place in the side. Having watched him closely last weekend, I must concur with that view. The inclusion of Marty Holah, with McCaw switching to the blind side, would improve the All Blacks even further. Having said that, they should still be too strong for Australia despite the Wallabies having the considerable advantage of playing in front of a partisan home crowd.

The key for the All Blacks lies in the performance of out-half Carlos Spencer. He is an outstanding talent. His pace off the mark and his angles of running are superb. The only question mark surrounding his game is his ability to control a tight match. Whether or not the Australians are in a position to exploit this remains to be seen. Overall the All Blacks would seem to possess too much power up front and pace in the backs to falter at this stage. By the time you read this, they should have reached their third World Cup final.

The outcome of tomorrow’s semi-final is far less straight-forward than people would have predicted at the outset of this competition. When France and England clashed in two warm up games in September, England looked by far in the better side. While their second team lost narrowly to the full French side in Marseilles, they overwhelmed the French in the return fixture at Twickenham. However, much has changed over the last eight weeks. When it comes to the World Cup, you underestimate the French at your peril.

They have been the most exciting team in the competition to date. The balance they have achieved between their forward power and elusive running of the backline is outstanding to watch. For 50 minutes against Ireland they gave an exhibition on how to play the game. Worryingly for England, their discipline and organisation in defence was even more impressive than their traditional strong points.

By way of contrast, England seem to be suffocating under the weight of expectation that has enveloped their squad since they arrived in Perth five weeks ago. While three of the semi-finalists have named an unchanged side, England has been forced into four changes, albeit two due to players returning from injury. That is not a good sign at this stage of the competition. For the past few years the English ship has sailed triumphantly securing 19 wins in their last 20 internationals. However, when it matters most, they seem to be faltering. Just like Captain Smith, on his maiden voyage with the Titanic, the journey from Southampton to Cobh (or Queenstown as it was then) was seamless. In the more competitive waters off Newfoundland, his challenge faltered. All week I can see England’s defence coach Phil Larder shouting “iceberg ahead.” Whether or not the English can alter course in time remains to be seen.

The inclusion of Mike Catt at inside centre is a desperate measure at this stage. Catt has played precious little rugby, due to injury, over the past 18 months. Two years ago his presence beside Jonny Wilkinson was a decisive factor in England’s outstanding performances. While his introduction as a half time replacement had the desired effect against Wales last weekend, he may find it more difficult to influence the game from a starting position. His selection is an admission by Clive Woodward that Wilkinson is feeling the pressure. Despite Woodwards protestations to the contrary, this selection is a gamble.

The return to the back row of Richard Hill is a major boost to the English pack. The French back row has been the outstanding combination of the tournament so far. The challenge for England is to match them in this area. For that to happen, Lawrence Dallaglio must perform for the full 80 minutes. To date, he has only performed in fits and starts.

For some time now there has been a question mark as to whether England’s ageing pack could survive an entire World Cup campaign. On recent evidence their front five are struggling. Certainly Martin Johnson, great player that he is, has not been as influential as heretofore. Tomorrow is a massive game for him. The French line out has been outstanding in the competition to date, and competed more successfully against Ireland than any other team. Ben Kay, their dominant lineout personality, must recapture his Six Nations form in order for England to compete in this vital sector. Their scrum is also a formidable unit.

The French, very much at home in their Bondi beach surroundings, have been relaxed in their build-up. The English by contrast are feeling the pressure. That frame of mind could make all the difference tomorrow.