Ruby Walsh: Fact To File is unstoppable, El Fabiolo is too short in the Queen Mother
GOOD VALUE: Jonbon, who Nicky Henderson is optimistic can give familiar foe El Fabiolo a run for his money when they clash for a third time in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham on Wednesday. Photo credit: David Davies/PA Wire.
The opening day of the Cheltenham Festival was a wonderful one for Irish horses, winning six of the seven races.
The big ones delivered but I'm guilty of looking at it through Willie Mullins-tinted glasses and when I look at Paul Townend, I just loved what I saw on Tuesday.
On Gaelic Warrior he made the right decision, and on State Man he changed tactics, changed plans, just did what he thought was right, and then rode the mare like she couldn’t get beaten. I love watching that.
Wednesday's action begins with the middle-distance novice hurdle and the banker for many: Ballyburn. He has been very impressive in his last two starts at Leopardstown, and his Dublin Racing Festival performance was spectacular.
He jumps, has the pace to travel at a good speed, and can quicken when needed, so I can see why many believe he is a banker.
Race two is the Brown Advisory Novice chase and with it comes the potential of seeing some live future Gold Cup contenders.
Stay Away Fay drops back into novice company after chasing home Capodanno in the Cotswolds Chase, and last year's Albert Bartlett winner sets a high standard, but I don't think it will be high enough to repel Fact To File.
Willie Mullins’ ace novice chaser skipped a hurdling campaign and dived straight into a chasing career, which saw him put up a massive performance, even if it was a match at the Dublin Racing Festival.
He is a slick jumper who travels strongly, and while he has yet to prove himself at this distance, everything about him suggests he could be even better at this trip. In my mind, he is unopposable.
The Coral Cup was never a race close to my heart, and while many will believe Sa Majeste is a handicap good thing - maybe he is - tipping a horse with any great faith is beyond me in this contest.
Twenty-six runners hurtling from the middle chute in Cheltenham before the long bend brings them onto the racecourse proper, which induces a massive reduction in pace.
This race is notorious for runners needing luck. I prefer races where you need to avoid bad luck to win rather than needing luck to win.
The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase looks a cracker on paper, but El Fabiolo is too short at 1/2 for my money.
The change of tactics rejuvenated Edwardstone at Newbury, and with Gentleman De Mee likely to challenge him on the front end, this is a race where the margin for error will be minimal.
If El Fabiolo has a chink in his armour, it is easy to suggest his jumping, and to advise anyone to steam at 1-2, the last thing you want is a horse who can take chances with fences.
He has the talent to win and is flying, but weighing risk versus reward here, Jonbon is a safer bet each-way.
The strong gallop will ensure stamina is required to win, and with Nico De Boinville back on board, I can't see Jonbon out of the first two. (UPDATE: Jonbon is now a non-runner). Granted, if he doesn't win, you will lose a small portion of your stake, but if El Fabiolo doesn't hit every note correctly, you could collect a nice profit.
UPDATE: The Cross-Country has now been abandoned due to the condition of the course
The Cross-Country Chase follows the Champion Chase, and contrary to the calls for mass change at the meeting, this race is one of two I would tinker with.
It should be a limited handicap, but it is what it is, so concentrating on the event unfolding Wednesday, Minella Indo sets the standard, but that's possibly on past glories rather than current form.
Some can't have the fact that a Gold Cup winner is running here rather than on Friday, but he offers little to the Gold Cup and plenty to this event.
My worry for him and Galvin is that the Cross-Country Course has been softer than the main track for some time – and this renewal is subject to a morning inspection – and those conditions could hinder both.
The one that appeals and stands out on recent form is Coko Beach. He is also the youngest of the top five in the betting and will love the ground.
The Grand Annual is the penultimate race and has changed considerably since being moved from its traditional slot on Friday.
It now requires a horse that can race close to the pace, which will mean Saint Roi has to alter his usual tactics. If he can cope with that, he will be a big player.
An Irish horse will win the last, but which one? Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott dominate the market but don't be sucked into following the yard choices because when big yards run multiple horses, they are usually guessing which one is the best.
My choice is Argento Boy, who, like his relative Briar Hill, shows very little at home but plenty on the racecourse. When most of these have cried enough, he will only be getting going.
