If you’re one of those people who loves to get up early each morning of Cheltenham, grab the newspaper, spend a few hours poring over the form, get the lunch out of the way, and then settle down to enjoy the Festival from the comfort of your own couch, this week won’t be that different. And that is the best way to approach the meeting: As though it were no different whatsoever to previous years.
As always, the racing will begin with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle tomorrow afternoon, will take you on a rollercoaster of graded and handicap action for four days, and then, on Friday evening, come to a juddering halt with a devilishly difficult Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle which will likely leave you wishing the Festival had finished up just a couple of races earlier.
After all we have been through in the past 12 months — and Cheltenham bore the brunt of the criticism for the virus’ spread in these islands — we owe it to ourselves to do everything we can to make it as normal as possible in the hope that this this is the one and only occasion it will be held behind closed doors.
For all the change swirling around, this season has been little different for Willie Mullins, and he — the greatest constant of the Festival for the last decade — has a stronger looking team than ever he travelled with.
The leading trainer in the history of the event shares, with Gordon Elliott, the record for the most wins at a single Festival. That bar is set at an incredible eight winners, which he achieved in 2015 and which Elliott emulated in 2018, and it is not inconceivable that ceiling will be breached this week. But perhaps that is expecting too much, even of the Closutton maestro.
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As has always held true for all the four-day Festivals, Tuesday and Wednesday are the moving days for punters, the ones on which getting ahead of the bookmakers is vital. And if Mullins is to raise his own standard even higher, these are his most important days.
There are so many opportunities for both: Think the Supreme, the Arkle, the Champion Hurdle, the Mares’ Hurdle, the Ballymore, the Brown Advisory Novice Chase, the Champion Chase, and the bumper. Even the most pessimistic punter could find some optimism among those races. Mullins certainly will.
From Wednesday, we move to take-a-break Thursday. If, as expected, bookmakers are losing at this point, this is most likely the stage at which they will begin to claw their way back into contention. If he’s going to struggle, this is the day it will happen for Mullins. And punters too.
Think the Marsh, the Pertemps, the Stayers’, the Plate, the Kim Muir and even the Mares’ Novice Hurdle and the Ryanair. No gimmes for Mullins, nor for punters.
Friday looks a little better for players than layers, though only marginally. Mullins, who has the favourite for all bar one of the races, will have his mind focused on making history with Al Boum Photo, a horse who has never quite fired the imagination of punters, but yet is sure to garner the lion’s share of the interest as the race approaches. If, by this stage, Mullins has half the success we expect, then the bookmakers will be praying this Photo does not develop.
For all the uncertainty of the time, the safest assumption of all is that if it is a bad week for Willie Mullins, it will be a terrible one for punters, and a joyous one for bookmakers.
Regardless, it is likely to be a difficult week for Gordon Elliott, whose punishment for the infamous indiscretion will be felt hardest as he watches former charges Envoi Allen, Quilixios, Ballyadam, Sir Gerhard and Galvin bidding to justify their prominent market positions in top races.
In a short time, Elliott has built his stable to compete at the highest level, doing so with such success that he has been leading trainer at the meeting on two occasions. This season, he built yet another team to compete with Mullins and Henderson, only to have it decimated just weeks before the Festival.
But there is a formidable resilience to Elliott’s character, that which earned him his place at the top table and will, no doubt, ensure he returns.
And all is not lost for his Cullentra House stable, now under the licence of Denise Foster. Zanahiyr remains close to the head of the market for the Triumph Hurdle, Sire Du Berlais is in single figures for the Stayers’ Hurdle, as are Fakiera and Torygraph for the Albert Bartlett, and there are a whole host of Gigginstown House Stud horse lurking dangerously in the handicaps.
They won’t technically be Elliott’s winners, should they oblige, but they will keep everyone involved ticking over nicely though a most difficult time. Isn’t that the theme of this week, of this extraordinary season?
Tommy’s take on...
CUP COMPETITION
When the Prestbury Cup — that notional competition between Britain and Ireland, defined by which country’s trainers win most races at the Cheltenham Festival — was first conceived, I felt it was a farcical idea.
How could the travelling brigade expect to compete with the home team? To my mind, there could only ever be one winner.
The idea for the “competition,” one suspects, was based upon the fact that the years running up to the inaugural cup showed the Irish challenge was growing and built upon the idea that, one day, it might just go Ireland’s way, and that would be cause for great celebration.
But oh, how quickly the scene has changed, and since its inception in 2014, Ireland has come out top four times, Britain twice, with one draw thrown in for good measure.
In 2017, a new landmark was reached when Irish-based runners won 19 of the 28 races, and last year’s tally of 17 was seven more than the home-based runners could manage, with France pitching in to complete the list.
For someone whose interest in the Festival goes back to a time when we were lucky to have one winner, and anything more was celebrated as a huge success, this remains difficult to comprehend.
Clearly, the bookmakers are expecting much of the same this year. Some bookmaker promotional email which arrived this week highlighted the fact they were giving Britain a six-winner head start on the handicap to make it a level playing field. Ten years ago, how utterly inconceivable would that have been?
THE BEST OF BRITISH
Shishkin (Arkle Chase, Tuesday): Shishkin’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, has 68 Cheltenham Festival winners to his name and, while his team is not comparable to that of Willie Mullins, he is equally adept at having his charges primed for the occasion.
Shishkin overcame plenty of adversity before winning the 2020 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and has looked even better in his short career to date as a chaser. It is terrific for the Arkle Chase that Allmankind lines up in opposition, but Shishkin looks a superstar in the making and can give Henderson a seventh win in the race.
Royal Pagaille (National Hunt Chase, Tuesday): It has taken quite some time for Royal Pagaille to get the hang of chasing, but he has been a revelation this season and if connections choose to take the option of tomorrow’s three-mile-six race, he will take a world of beating.
Formerly trained in France but now with the Grand National-winning Ventia Williams, best known for her exploits with staying chasers, he is bordering on single-figure prices for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but this looks a more realistic target and one he should take to maximise his chance of becoming a Festival winner.
Epatante (Champion Hurdle, Tuesday): There have been some blips in Epatante’s career, including last time out at Kempton, where she was turned over at odds of 1-5, but at her best the reigning Champion Hurdler is as good as there is over two miles.
Her trainer, Nicky Henderson, has had plenty of time to get her back to her peak and if she turns up in the same form as when winning this race in 2020, a repeat should be on the cards. It looks sure to be run at a furious pace and that will suit as she can sit behind the speed and use her turn of pace to reel in the leaders late on.
GOING FOR GOLD
Third Time Lucki (County Hurdle, Friday)
Like so many other horses at this meeting, this fellow has options, but I hope connections let him take his chance in the County Hurdle on Friday. It is a tremendously competitive handicap and yet his trainer, Dan Skelton, has clearly found the key to it, as he has won three of the last five runnings.
This horse finished fourth in last season’s Champion Bumper when not entirely suited by the way the race was run or by the testing conditions. He has since won three of his five outings over hurdles, and there were mitigating circumstances for both defeats.
The more the ground dries as the week goes on, the better his chance, and he will love having a strong pace to sit off. He could take the option to run in tomorrow’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a place is not beyond him, but waiting for the handicap looks the right option.
Champagne Gold (Martin Pipe Handicap, Friday)
Henry de Bromhead’s six-year-old has just one maiden hurdle success to his name thus far but in all outings to date he has looked capable of going on to much better things.
Two runs’ ago he finished third behind Fakiera, who is a leading fancy for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, and in that Navan race he finished in front of subsequent Grade Two winner Farouk D’alene.
He was beaten by Drop The Anchor on his latest outing, but that Leopardstown handicap can prove to be a key role in his development. The competitive nature of the race seemed to suit the son of Presenting and, only outdone by a battle-hardened rival, he is sure to have learnt plenty from the race.
This is tougher and he has been given a significant hike in the ratings, but the nature of this race can bring out the best in him and he makes plenty of each-way appeal at double- figure odds.
Race-by-race schedule
(Last year's corresponding winners in brackets)
TUESDAY
1.20: Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m. (Shishkin, 6-1).
1.55: Sporting Life Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f (Put The Kettle On, 16-1).
2.30: Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 1f (The Conditional, 15-2).
3.05: Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m (Epatante 2-1 fav).
3.40: Close Brothers David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 3f (Honeysuckle, 9-4).
4.15: Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) 2m (Imperial Aura 4-1 jt-fav).
4.50: National Hunt Chase (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) 3m 5f (Ravenhill, 12-1.)
WEDNESDAY
1.20: Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f (Envoi Allen, 4-7).
1.55: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m (Champ, 4-1).
2.30: Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f (Dame De Compagnie, 5-1 fav).
3.05: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f (Politologue, 6-1).
3.40: Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f (Easysland, 3-1).
4.15: Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m (Aramax, 15-2).
4.50: Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m (Ferny Hollow, 11-1).
THURSDAY
1.20: Marsh Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m 3f (Samcro, 4-1).
1.55: Pertemps Network Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 2m 7f (Sire Du Berlais, 10-1).
2.30: Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) 2m 4f (Min, 2-1).
3.05: Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f (Lisnagar Oscar, 50-1).
3.40: Paddy Power Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) 2m 4f (Simply The Betts, 100-30 fav).
4.15: Daylesford Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m (Concertista, 9-2).
4.50: Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase 3m 2f (Milan Native, 9-1).
FRIDAY
1.20: JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m (Burning Victory, 12-1).
1.55: McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m (Saint Roi 11-2 fav).
2.30: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 7f (Monkfish (5-1).
3.05: WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) 3m 2f (Al Boum Photo 100-30 fav).
3.40: St James’s Place Foxhunter Chase 3m 2f (It Came To Pass, 66-1).
4.15: Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase 2m 4f (Chosen Mate, 7-2 fav).
4.50: Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (0-145) 2m 4f (Indefatigable, 25-1).
