How would the 2021 Cheltenham Festival look without Irish raiders?
FESTIVAL CONTENDER: Harry Cobden steers Next Destination to victory at Newbury in November. The Paul Nicholls-trained nine-year-old can book his Cheltenham ticket by making it two from two over fences at Warwick today.Â
Two months to the day from the start of the Cheltenham Festival, a host of questions remain unanswered.
It was ever thus but the questions for 2021 are very different to previous years.
Yes, there’s considerable intrigue about whether Al Boum Photo can become the first horse since Best Mate to win the Gold Cup three times or if Altior can defy his advancing years to win a fifth Festival race to name just two big talking points.
However, with the Covid-19 pandemic more out of control in Ireland and England now than at any previous point the questions that first have to be answered are far more basic. Will Irish horses be let travel? Will spectators be allowed in? Will there even be a Festival?
The last of those three questions looks the easiest to answer. Since last June, racing has shown it can keep the show on the road safely and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t still be the case come the middle of March.
As for the question of spectators, it’s almost impossible to imagine the Covid-19 situation improving sufficiently over the next two months to allow Cheltenham open their gates to a significant number of racegoers.
On the horses front, it was encouraging to see a Betfair market yesterday that priced it at 1-7 that Irish raiders will make the journey to Cheltenham. However, in these uncertain times there’ll be plenty tempted by odds of 16-5 that Irish horses will be unable to attend racing’s marquee event.
In these muddied waters, what is crystal clear is that the Cheltenham 2021 picture would look very different without Irish equine participation, a reality evidenced by the ante-post market.
Of the 28 races down over decision over the four days, Irish-trained horses head the market in no less than 18 contests.
At Grade One level, Irish raiders head 10 of the 14 markets including the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Appreciate It), the Champion Chase (Chacun Pour Soi), the Marsh Novices’ Chase (Envoi Allen) and the Gold Cup (Al Boum Photo).
In the greater scheme of things, one Cheltenham without Irish horses obviously wouldn’t qualify as a disaster but a Gold Cup won by Santini without beating key Irish protagonists Al Boum Photo, A Plus Tard, and Minella Indo would be an achievement with an asterisk.
Ditto Politologue retaining his Champion Chase crown in a race without Chacun Pour Soi.
Or Next Destination winning the Festival Novices’ Chase where Monkfish and Latest Exhibition weren’t in opposition.
On the subject of Next Destination, the nine-year-old can conclude his Festival preparations by winning the Grade Two McCoy Contractors Civils And Infrastructure Hampton Novices’ Chase at Warwick today.
A dual Grade One winner over hurdles for Willie Mullins in 2018, Next Destination made an encouraging start to life with Paul Nicholls when second to Roksana in a Grade Two hurdle in October, his first start in 920 days.
A month later, he made a winning chasing debut in a Newbury Grade Two, a victory that confirmed he retains much of the ability he showed during his time at Closutton.
He does have to concede weight to his two rivals today but that shouldn’t be beyond him.
The Ballymore Leamington Novices’ Hurdle, the other Grade Two on the Warwick card, looks a good deal more competitive but Make Me A Believer showed a willing attitude when winning at Cheltenham last month and, with the David Pipe team in decent form of late, can go in again today.
Pipe can also provide the answer in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle where Keppage makes each-way appeal in a wide-open contest.
In the big betting heat of the day, Notachance can prove himself badly named by winning the McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase.
The seven-year-old produced a career-best effort when winning over three miles at Bangor in November and this Grade Three has been the aim since. He can give Alan King a third success in this marathon contest.
Providing Market Rasen survives an 8am inspection, Grangee will become the first Irish-trained horse to race in Britain post-Brexit when she contests the Alan Swinbank Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race.
Eileendover looks the biggest danger to Willie Mullins’ charge but the expectation is Grangee will get the job done and book her Champion Bumper ticket.
Elsewhere at Market Rasen, On The Blind Side can get the better of Lil Rockerfeller in the MansionBet’s Bet 10 Get 20 Hurdle while Edwardstone should take all the beating in the MansionBet Handicap Hurdle.
