Koup great each-way value
It’s a really competitive race in which very few runners can be ruled out with great confidence but the selection ran a super race in defeat in what looked a pretty smart race at Cheltenham last time and he hasn’t been raised for that effort.
In finishing fifth behind the thoroughly unexposed Module, he was less than a length behind Triumph Hurdle hopeful Hinterland, giving the form a pretty solid look.
He has only been with the Grand National winning trainer since late October and while he has run five times in the interim, he looks as though there’s further improvement in him. This is only his second run in a handicap and as he ran so well off the same mark last time, he doesn’t have to improve to get involved.
There’s an argument to say that he went for home too early at Cheltenham but it could also be a case that the stiff uphill finish was against him. Musselburgh’s flat course should play to his strengths and at odds of 7 or 8-1, he looks terrific each-way value.
There might also be a little value in 11-1 chance Palawi, who is still just a five-year-old and probably capable of better than he’s shown so far.
He was in the process of running a huge race when falling at the second last in a Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree last season and, after two modest efforts in good company at Cheltenham, he returned to winning ways at this track last time. He’s set to carry 11-11 today but he’s still somewhat unexposed over hurdles and should also go well.
Former Triumph Hurdle runner-up Walkon was a real disappointment when finishing a poor third behind Cue Card on his most recent start over fences but he looks set to bounce back in the Grolsch Novices’ Chase at Exeter (4.10) tomorrow afternoon.
Alan King’s horse was an impressive winner on his chasing debut in early December and looked like he might be set to go far over fences. However, he didn’t jump with the same fluency or zest when beaten next time and he has a little to prove now.
There’s also the fact that he ran very well on his seasonal debut in 2010 but failed to live up to the promise of that effort in subsequent outings that season.
The mitigating circumstance there is that he was coming back from almost two years on the sidelines and it’d be wrong to assume that it’ll be a similar case this season.
It’s seems reasonable to whittle this race down to four, but Qaspal, who would be one of the quartet, has to improve on what he achieved over hurdles and is making his debut over fences. On balance, he can be ruled out.
Mic’s Delight is lightly enough raced to make a significant step forward and he probably won’t be too inconvenienced by the drop back in trip, but he has quite a bit to find with Walkon and may have to settle for a minor role today.
That said, there are plenty more races in him.
Cedre Bleu looks the obvious danger, being an unexposed five-year-old from a top yard but I wasn’t entirely convinced by him last time.
He found more than Bellvano when push came to shove at Newbury but, then again, what horse wouldn’t? He was in receipt of 10lbs that day but only receives three from the significantly higher rated Walkon in this race.
The return to Exeter is a help for Walkon, and he should resume his progress over fences with victory here.
SELECTIONS:
Koup De Kanon
3.45 Musselburgh
Walkon
4.10 Exeter, Tomorrow
