Weekend Wagers
Perhaps the horse I’m most looking forward to seeing this weekend is Four Commanders in the Grade 2 Novices’ Chase at Naas this afternoon. Do I think he’ll win it? Possibly, but probably not. But bigger and better things could be around the corner.
He has beaten one of today’s rivals, Medical Card, over fences and ran two perfectly adequate races in defeat since then.
Mouse Morris’ horse is likely to improve for better ground and I really wouldn’t be surprised if his most astute trainer already had one eye on the Centenary Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. His current mark of 135 is an absolutely beautiful weight for the race at The Festival and, given that he jumps so well and should get more favourable conditions there, I’ll be very keen to note his entries over the coming weeks.
Today’s race will be his fifth over fences this season and it means that, should a Cheltenham handicap be on the agenda, he will go there with plenty of experience.
I expect him to run well today, perhaps chasing home the currently higher rated Allee Garde at a respectable distance.
Another one worth keeping an eye on is It’s A Gimme in the closing race at Wincanton. He beat Colour Squadron in a novice hurdle at Newbury on his last outing and, quite clearly, that form has been given a huge boost since then as the runner-up went on to win his maiden before running out a very unlucky loser in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle.
A rating of 142 in a “National Hunt” novices hurdle of this nature sets him apart from his rivals and, while Colour Squadron doesn’t need the boost, it’d be nice to see an authoritative display from the five-year-old for Mono Man. The latter, who finished third at Newbury, looks a horse of real potential and was arguably unlucky not to win that day.
In today’s race, the Paul Nicholls-trained Unpartou, who makes his British debut this afternoon, is a conceivable danger, as is bumper winner Josh’s Dreamway, who receives a stone from the selection. Despite being off since November, it’ll be disappointing if It’s A Gimme does not return with a victory.
The Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot (3.10) elevates the weekend’s racing to an acceptable level and one of the eight runners in today’s race will claim his first success at Grade 1 level in Open Company.
While Al Ferof took highest-grade honours in novice company over hurdles (2011 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) and fences (2011 Henry VIII Chase) and both Finian’s Rainbow (2011 Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree) and Forpadydeplaster (2009 Arkle Chase at Cheltenham) have also done so over fences, none of them have done it in Open Company and perhaps that is what makes this race so difficult to solve.
If you’re looking for experience at the top level then Henrietta Knight’s Somersby fits the bill but he comes with a note of extreme caution. While it’s reasonable to assess that his performance in this race last year when second to Master Minded and even his decent showing in the King George on St Stephen’s Day pinpoint him as the one to beat, the most pertinent point about his form is the fact that he’s won only one race in the last 25 months and that came in a three-runner graduation chase in which the conditions of the race weighed heavily in his favour.
I can clearly see the argument behind backing him at odds of 6-1, but those who have supported him consistently through his career are so far behind that a victory today will not make him profitable. There’s no guaranteed pacemaker in the race and that would also be a major issue for him.
Wishfull Thinking, after two bitter disappointments, certainly showed more in his most recent outing, when he was just touched off by Finian’s Rainbow.
His jockey, Richard Johnson, is adamant that he’s settling better in his work and if he could transfer that to the track, we might finally see what he’s capable of. However, he’s not certain to produce it and is no more than an each-way option in an open race.
Al Ferof is unbeaten in two runs over fences but he’s still a novice and the form of his most recent victory, in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown, took a dent when runner-up For Non Stop was well beaten by Cue Card despite receiving 7lbs.
I’m not certain that this track will bring out the best in him and he must improve significantly.
Tom Cooper’s Forpadydeplaster has shown some signs of a revival recently but he’s rapidly approaching three years without a victory.
With Wishfull Thinking now requiring restraint and no obvious pacemaker in the race, it could be left to Finian’s Rainbow to make his own pace.
If Barry Geraghty’s mount is allowed that luxury, he should be able to control matters from the outset and now that he has drifted to 5-2, he’s beginning to look like a value option.
In the Bathwick Tyres Handicap Hurdle (2.45) at Wincanton, David Arbuthnot’s Shuil Royale looks a solid each-way bet.
The gelding was a well-beaten third behind Our Father in a really competitive race at Ascot last time but he made a bad mistake early and it’s possible that it told in the closing stages.
The seven-year-old was a winner of two bumpers and novice hurdle `last season and, at some stage, he ought to be able to make the most of a modest mark of 115.
Tom Cannon claims 5lbs, which allows Shuil Royale carry under 11 stone and today could be the day he makes his handicap breakthrough.
The Paul Nicholls-trained Billy Merriott will likely be the subject of plenty of interest making his handicap debut off a low mark but how many of the trainer’s horses take more than six runs to shed their maiden status? He’s no superstar in the context of Ditcheat’s finest, but must be respected at this level.
