Weekend Wagers: Tommy Lyons
The 32Red handicap chase at Sandown looks a nice opportunity for Martin Keighley’s All For Free to complete a quick hat-trick.
The six-year-old, who won a bumper for Shark Hanlon back in June of 2010, lost his form towards the end of last term and did little to indicate a revival when well beaten on his seasonal debut back in November.
However, things have become distinctly brighter since then and he made the breakthrough over fences with an impressive success in a novices’ chase at Ascot last month.
Raised 7lbs for that win, he followed up with an equally authoritative display at Ludlow a couple of weeks later.
That ensured another 7lbs were added to his rating but it’s seems unlikely that it’ll be enough to stop the progressive young chaser.
Sneaking in at the bottom of the handicap here, he should get a lovely tow around before launching his challenge late.
The ground is officially good to soft but it could be more testing than that come race time and, while that would be of concern to many of his rivals, it’s shouldn’t be a problem for him as he won a novice hurdle on heavy ground.
At around 9-2, he looks good value to continue his winning run.
As racing weekends go, this is a pretty modest one, with the 32Red Hurdle (Tolworth Hurdle) a feature in little more than name.
With only five runners going to post, it’s not going to be the most informative of races but it could still be quite an interesting betting race.
Paul Nicholls, who has won four of the last seven runnings of the race, is represented by Prospect Wells, who ran Supreme Novices’ Hurdle favourite Steps To Freedom to a neck at Cheltenham back in November before winning a novices’ hurdle and then finishing fourth behind Raya Star in the Ladbroke.
It’s good form and has earned him a mark of 145, which sets a high standard here, but it’s not necessarily a race that will be run to suit him.
Philip Hobbs’ Colour Squadron made all to win his maiden at Newbury last month but he didn’t set a very strong gallop and was able to give generously to repel the challenge of the highly regarded Montbazon. He’s likely to have to force the issue again and could prove tough to pass but I have reservations.
At Newbury last time, he showed a slight tendency to run to his left on the approach to some of his hurdles, thus moving markedly left on landing. That may prove to be a non-issue but racing around a right-handed track for the first time is, at the very least, an unknown.
That said, Hobbs’ horses rarely lack for spirit in a battle and he may be given an easy time of it up front, so he looks sure to attract support at around the 9-4 mark.
Nicky Henderson made a remark about Captain Conan, which seems to have got quite a bit of press. Regarding the French import, who is making his British debut this afternoon, he said: “You won't have heard of him nor seen him but you most probably will on Saturday.”
It’s a dangerous line, insofar as punters could take it as a huge positive, but it’s also one which can easily be backed out of.
In that sense it’s probably not worth taking too much heed of, but the horse would not have to be a superstar to make a winning start despite this being a Grade 1 race.
He was an easy winner on his last start over hurdles in France but the departure of the favourite made his task easier and not one of the horses behind him that day has done anything to give the form a lift. The cliché that he could only beat what was put in front of him certainly applies, and market moves would be very significant.
The all-conquering Nicky Henderson stable looks to have real prospects of taking the opening Mares’ Listed Hurdle at Sandown with the improving Kells Belle.
The now six-year-old was a winner of her only bumper and took just two goes to win a maiden hurdle. However, she’s run five times without success since that victory at Ludlow back in February and has been beaten favourite on two occasions, including at odds-on in a race at Leicester last month.
That doesn’t make the most compelling reading for punters wishing to make the plunge, but the daughter of Alflora ran well when fourth in a decent handicap at Kempton last time and had also run a really eye-catching race when third behind the gambled-on Decoy at Cheltenham on her seasonal debut in November.
She should find the task of taking on her own sex today that bit more manageable and, as she looks the type to get further than two and a half miles in time, I would expect her to be ridden positively in this small field.
On official figures she has seven pounds to find with the Kim Bailey-trained Kaffie but that’s far from insurmountable and her greater experience could prove the difference.
The aforementioned Kaffie is on a hat-trick after smart victories at Exeter and Warwick. She’s gone up 7lbs for her latest win and, while she didn’t have a very hard race, it was only a week ago. She’s taking a step up in grade here but is the obvious danger to the selection.
On better ground, The Strawberry One would have been a major player but it’s hard to get past the fact that all of her victories have come on good or faster going. The hurdle course is reportedly slower than the chase course today and she may struggle to produce her best in the mud.
The ten-year-old Love Of Tara made a surprise return to the winner’s enclosure last time but will need to improve again to figure.
