Warbler to sing the tune in Ladbroke
There’s nothing excessively strange about very soft ground at this time of year but a number of the more prominent horses in the market have doubts about their suitability to testing conditions.
Novice Prospect Wells tops the market at around 4-1 but all his winning form is on ground no worse than good to soft. His experience from the flat will be an asset but he’s not sure to enjoy a slog on his first foray into handicapping company over hurdles, and it takes a little faith to side with him at his such short odds.
Gibb River is similar insofar as he looks the type to appreciate some better ground. Nicky Henderson’s horse has gone up five pounds for a very promising seasonal debut where he finished a close third behind Ubi Ace in a similar contest. However, he’s by Mr Greeley, whose progeny rarely encounter this sort of going, and he should be seen to better effect later in the season.
Alan King’s Raya Star caught my eye when first looking into the race but, again, my enthusiasm has been tempered by the conditions.
One horse who will be suited by every drop of rain that soaks into the turf is the Brian Ellison-trained Marsh Warbler and, at odds of 14-1, he makes plenty of each-way appeal.
He was a winner of a heavy ground seller on his final flat start on the turf and, after a promising introduction to hurdling at Market Rasen in November of last year, he rattled off a quick hat-trick, which culminated in a convincing victory in the Grade 1 Future Champions’ Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow in January.
After that he was handed a Supreme Novices ticket rather than one for the Triumph Hurdle, but he failed to get competitive on the good ground at Cheltenham that day.
He made his 2011 return on the all-weather at Southwell in October, when he won a handicap off a mark of 70, and his return to hurdling resulted in a perfectly acceptable second behind subsequent International Hurdle winner Grandouet at Haydock on good to soft going.
His trainer insists the horse needed that run and, with conditions sure to be more to his likely here, he is set to run a huge race.
Claimer James Best takes a valuable seven pounds off and, while I don’t know an awful lot about him, it’s encouraging to know that he has ridden a couple of winners already this month.
If there was money for the Nicky Henderson-trained Rajdhani Express, it would be very significant. He made his British debut in a similar race at Sandown earlier this month and he travelled well for a long way before weakening in the closing stages to finish fifth behind Ubi Ace.
He has a bit to find with Via Galilei (second) and Gibb River (third), but the ground and the benefit of the experience should see him in a better light. He could be a lot better than that and may be worth a risk at odds around 20-1.
Sole Irish raider Sailors Warn looks set to play a prominent role also. He was beaten just a length and a half when trying to give nine pounds to Steps To Freedom at Punchestown in October, form which, if taken literally, entitles him to finish in front of favourite Prospect Wells.
Eddie O’Grady’s horse also lost nothing in defeat when second, trying to concede 7lbs to Unaccompanied last month at Naas. He boasts plenty of hurdling experience for one so young and is also hardened from an early flat career. While he’s not the easiest to win with, the ground isn’t an issue for him, he has the assistance of Tony McCoy and it’s hard to see him out of the frame.
At a ridiculous price, Ciceron could tempt. His recent form is pretty poor but it has all been on good ground and you don’t have to dig too deep to find his last winning line, which, of course, came on soft ground. It takes a bit of imagination to figure out how he could go from finishing last over course and distance a month ago to winning a race of this nature, but he had some good form last year and has won off a higher mark.
The race is as competitive as one would expect for one of its nature, but Marsh Warbler’s case is compelling and he rates a fine each-way bet at 14-1. Sailors Warn and Rajdhani Express also have possibilities and make the shortlist.
