Warrior can prevail in Drinmore battle
On what the horse has achieved in his few forays to the track, he’s an awful long way behind his owner’s First Lieutenant, who won the Neptune Investments Management Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.
However, Bog Warrior made a successful and very eye-catching debut over fences recently and that left the impression that he could be a proper horse in this discipline.
Jumping very well under a positive ride, he cantered clear of the well-backed Flemenstar to score with plenty in hand and, when that rival bolted up in a novices’ chase last week at Navan, it gave the form a real boost.
Ruby Walsh, who rode him to victory in a maiden hurdle at Cork last season, takes the mount again and he’s unlikely to ask the gelding to make the running this time - that could be left to Paul Nolan’s two runners, Alpha Ridge and Shinrock Paddy.
First Lieutenant is the choice of Gigginstown’s retained jockey, Davy Russell, but Mouse Morris’ horse is not entirely suited to heavy conditions. He has won on similar ground in the past and it could be that his class will get him through, but his trainer is sure to have one eye, if not both eyes, on a return to Cheltenham. He’s a deserving favourite but I wouldn’t be keen to side with him at short odds and there may be better value in getting behind the thoroughly unexposed Bog Warrior.
With the way the ground was at Sandown yesterday afternoon, it’s very tempting to try and find an alternative to Sizing Europe in this afternoon’s Tingle Creek, but viable options are thin on the ground.
Tataniano has had to pull out because of an injury picked up yesterday morning and that means that trainer Paul Nicholls, who has won the last six runnings of the race, relies on Kauto Stone to make it a magnificent seven-in-a-row for Ditcheat.
The ex-French, half-brother to Kauto Star was very impressive on his debut for Nicholls, when he ran away with the Ladbrokes.com Grade 2 Chase at Down Royal last month and he won’t have to improve much to establish himself amongst the best chasers in these isles.
In terms of this race, however, there are questions to be answered. Firstly, how will he adapt to this shorter trip, where he will face a new task trying to travel and jump at pace in the top grade? Secondly, the ground was reported to have ridden on the soft side yesterday, but will it be soft enough for this five-year-old?
I suspect his class will put him amongst the places but there is a danger that, if no further rain arrives before the race, he may be tapped for toe at a crucial stage.
In his favour could be the presence of Wishfull Thinking, who likes to bowl along in front. Whether he was just too free or given an ill-judged ride in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham is up for debate but, either way, he would have had to have been a Gold Cup horse to carry 11-6 to victory in the circumstances. If he’s to emerge as the winner this afternoon, I suspect he’ll have to adopt similarly daring tactics. I suppose I’m in a minority who still have reservations about his jumping but, if my concerns are to prove well-founded, then today could be the day when they are exposed. The shorter trip, quicker pace and the sequence of fences at Sandown make for a new experience for Wishfull Thinking and I’m just not ready to back him at around 3-1.
