Today's big question

How much should we expect from Frankel this afternoon?
Today's big question

Whereas the National Hunt season builds towards Cheltenham and its crowning as champion one or more of its many perennial performers, each flat season depends upon the early establishment of a new star.

The quicker the coronation, the sooner the racing public engages its interest in a discipline that so often struggles to fire the imagination.

When he lines up for today's Greenham Stakes at Newbury, the hopes of an entire term will be carried on Frankel's broad shoulders.

In 2010 he carried all before him and ended the season as the joint top-rated two-year-old despite being un-extended in any of his four races, but can he continue his progress through 2011?

St Nicholas Abbey is the most recent example of a champion two-year-old who has struggled to live up to the promise of his first season but there have been many more. Even Frankel's connections, trainer Henry Cecil and owner Khalid Abdulla, have felt that disappointment.

Armiger, with the world at his hooves after a six-length victory in the Racing Post Trophy, and Tenby, whose unbeaten two-year-old career included victory in the Grand Criterium, failed to make the grade in Classic company.

For Frankel, the betting suggests today's contest is a two-horse race - at most. He has 13lbs and more in hand on his rivals but almost certainly that gap will be bridged somewhat.

Strong Suit, second best on official figures, represents the Richard Hannon stable, which has started this season in predictably electric fashion. Hannon has a proven record at turning useful two-year-olds into top class three-year-olds and Strong Suit, who failed to live up to expectations in 2010, may now be ready to justify his standing at East Everleigh stables.

Though that may not be enough today, he will be ready for this and should not be underestimated.

For those enthusiasts expecting fireworks from Frankel, I urge caution. A victory, however it comes, should be received as ample evidence of a superstar in the making. Anything more should be hailed a bonus.

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