Star can shine if rain stays away
He is an absolutely amazing horse and to be able to come back here three times in a row, in Grade 1 company, and win like that shows he is ultra-consistent and just brilliant.
He has so much class and could be best described as a horse in a million. I just love him to bits.
I feel the Gold Cup today is a wide-open contest and there is no way anyone can be confident of finding the winner.
Kauto Star has often been a short-priced favourite in the past and now is an each-way price, so I’m hoping we will at least be in the first three. My first wish is the rain stays away, that’s critical. The better the ground, the better Kauto Star’s prospects. If the ground was to turn soft then that would, essentially, be our chances flying straight out of the window.
We have to accept that Kauto has not been at his best for a while and was beaten even before making that mistake two out behind Long Run in the King George.
If he hadn’t blundered then he would have been a good second and, obviously, I’m hoping he can step up on that.
Denman will relish any rain that arrives. He ran a cracker when third in the Hennessy behind Diamond Harry, but I still think he needs to improve on that.
Imperial Commander was good here a year ago, but to my mind has had far from an ideal preparation.
He has had no outing in 118 days and, if you are fan of his, then backing him will require a leap of faith.
Kempes will love the ground, if it stays as it was at the time of writing. He has an outside shot but does have to find a lot of improvement at the same time.
Lots of people seem to think Long Run won’t handle the track but I’m not in that particular corner. My theory is that he is more ground dependent than track dependent. He hits the ground hard and no rain will be a minus for him. The rain will have to come for Pandorama to win.
I believe this is a puzzling Gold Cup. I’m praying we will see the real Kauto Star, so let’s see what the day brings.
I start on Paul Nicholls’ Sam Winner in the Triumph Hurdle. He was very good round Cheltenham twice, before disappointing at Chepstow. Paul has excuses for the last day and is expecting a big performance now. This is a real stamina test for juveniles and Sam Winner will get every yard of the trip.
He is a horse I have always liked and, no matter what he does today, has a big future over fences.
I’ve chosen to ride Willie Mullins’ Final Approach in the County Hurdle. He’s a hardy, tough little horse who comes here having won the MCR Hurdle at Leopardstown.
This is a typical impossible-to-solve Cheltenham handicap and good luck to you if you want to try and find the answer.
I’ve gone with Paul’s Join Together, in preference to Willie’s Gagewell Flyer, in the Albert Bartlett. Gagewell Flyer is certainly one of the major form horses but this three miles takes huge getting and I cannot be sure it will suit him.
I have no such worries with Join Together. Paul is very keen on him and he will love the trip, which is a big advantage.
I end my festival on Pepe Simo in the Grand Annual. He stays two miles well and has loads of speed but let’s just say I don’t want to be waiting for my first success of the day going out to ride him.
I’m going to nap Sir Des Champs in the conditional jockeys’ hurdle, on the basis he’s better than a handicapper.
