Ground the key to 2000 Guineas rematch
To get the first two from Newmarket, Henrythenavigator and New Approach, to cross-swords again was the dream and, barring an unexpected change of plan somewhere along the way, it seems likely to happen.
I have been mildly surprised at the number of people who are adamant New Approach will beat his rival on this occasion.
I think their line of thinking is that Jim Bolger’s colt will be far better suited by the stiffer test the Curragh offers. Fair enough, but here’s one who harbours doubts that one can be in any way positive regarding the likely outcome.
New Approach is a grinder and tried to do it the hard way - from the front - at Newmarket. To my eyes he was a trifle free in the early part of the contest and, you could argue, lost the race then rather than in the dying strides.
There’s no doubt New Approach is a very good horse, but does not seem to possess the speed of a brilliant miler and, over this trip, it can be bloody hard work. Henrythenavigator mugged him close home at Newmarket, under a superb Johnny Murtagh drive. The word on Henry, going into that race, was that he wouldn’t be at his best for a couple of more weeks.
Well, those weeks have now passed, so what sort of machine may arrive at headquarters in two days time?
David Elsworth has to be admired for supplementing Stubbs Art, but the Newmarket third has a short head and four lengths to find on his rivals and that’s asking a lot.
The dark horse of the contest has to be Famous Name, trained by Dermot Weld, who seems to have the best three-year-olds around right now.
He won a Group 2 at Leopardstown by four lengths on his reappearance and, for a while there, the form had a very solid look to it.
Runner-up, Moiqen, went on to score at Leopardstown and the third, Hebridean, won easily at Gowran Park.
But then Moiqen was beaten seven and lengths into third behind another Weld inmate, Casual Conquest, at Leopardstown and the first seeds of doubt were sewn.
In the end, logic tells us that this should develop into another battle between the big two. Given cut in the ground, New Approach would have be one for the maximum.
On the expected fast surface, there is sufficient doubt to keep the hands in the pockets, at least for the moment. We really do need to think a bit more about this!
WHO ever invented the concept of morning-prices should get the freedom of the country!
You know, you often hear waffle that all they do is alert the bookmakers to what’s fancied and is an early warning system for them.
Of course there’s an element of truth in that, but it’s every man for himself in this game and the outstanding value which can be on offer in the morning is more than ample compensation for what might be lost later in the day.
Take Edward O’Grady’s Negus at Kilbeggan last Saturday night. He contested a dreadful maiden hurdle and had to be an odds-on shot.
After all, he had finished second in a Listed race on the flat at Dusseldorf and had run a cracker on his debut over flights, in a winners’ race mind you, at the Punchestown Festival.
Yet the morning-price lads thought it would be fine to go 5-4. He won in a canter at 4-6.
Then there was Dermot Weld’s Daasij in a maiden on the level at Roscommon on Monday night. Now Stevie Wonder would have spotted him on his debut behind stable companion, Winchester, at Leopardstown.
This looked a weak enough heat on paper, but, astonishingly, you could have 2-1, 15-8, and 7-4 in the morning.
Like Negus, he too strolled to victory, also at 4-6. Despite such blunders, these major off-course firms will continue to make massive profits.
We know it, and they know it, that there continues to be huge mug money about the place. But the discerning punter has a real chance.
There appears to be no independent thinking among the big boys, they all now sing from the one hymn sheet.
The beauty of that is when a horse is clearly over-priced, it’s usually wrong with them all. Oh, such joy.
