Pass on the patriotism this year
The three main contests over fences at the meeting are the Gold Cup, Queen Mother Champion Chase and the Arkle Trophy. Sadly, it will be a major surprise should we manage to land even one of them.
We are not in danger of returning to the late 80s, when struggling to win any race at the Festival, but it is a disconcerting situation all the same.
The Gold Cup on Friday, of course, is the traditional highlight. This year’s renewal is set to bring together the two superstars of the game, Kauto Star and Denman.
They have huge reputations and the clash is made even more interesting because they are both in the care of Paul Nicholls.
Kauto Star is the defending champion and will go off a worthy favourite. The big doubt about him 12 months ago was an alarming tendency to make at least one major blunder in his races.
Typically, he went right through the final fence in the Gold Cup, but it didn’t break his momentum and he eventually beat Exotic Dancer with plenty in hand.
Kauto Star has looked an even more potent machine this campaign. His jumping has been superb and he hardly came out of second gear when taking the King George at Kempton at Christmas.
There is a wonderful style and swagger about him and Ruby Walsh had no hesitation picking Kauto Star in preference to Denman.
Sam Thomas will now partner Denman and has openly stated he will be attempting to make all the running.
Walsh is certain to sit on his tail and it is going to be fascinating to see how the race develops through the final mile. The Irish challenge is woefully weak.
Likewise, we have little or no chance of winning Wednesday’s two mile Champion Chase. Arthur Moore’s Mansony is exposed as being well short of this class, while John Murphy’s Newmill, winner of the race two years ago, has simply not shown enough this season to be taken seriously.
Paul Nicholls again has a powerful hand, with Ruby Walsh preferring Master Minded to Twist Magic.
The winner looks sure to come from the Nicholls pair or Voy Por Ustedes, who is a better horse at Cheltenham than anywhere else.
Today’s Arkle also looks destined for the Nicholls-Walsh combination, with the progressive Noland, unbeaten in his two races over fences to date.
If our prospects over fences are grim, then the same cannot be said of the Champion Hurdle. We hold a powerful hand, headed by the Leopardstown AIG hero, Henry de Bromhead’s Sizing Europe. He is backed up by compatriots Sublimity, who won last year for John Carr, as well as Harchibald, successful on the all-weather at Dundalk, and the live outsider, Catch Me.
Tralee trainer, Tom Cooper, has two live possibilities for the week in River Liane and Forpadydeplasterer.
River Liane, formerly trained in France and a smooth winner on his Irish debut at Leopardstown, has a lot going for him in today’s Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle.
The imposing Forpadydeplasterer contests tomorrow’s Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle. Hopefully, he will produce a decent performance, before embarking on his true vocation next season, jumping fences.
We nearly always win Wednesday’s Champion Bumper and this year should be no exception. But with so many challengers, including no less than four from Willie Mullins, this is a minefield for punters.
Ruby Walsh believes Tony McCoy is the value bet to end the meeting as leading rider.
He may well be right, but there is little doubt it is Walsh himself who has the strongest book of rides and he is easily the most logical choice.
Heading into the meeting there is no great cause of optimism and blind patriotism seems unlikely to reap a dividend.
If we manage five winners, then that will be a satisfactory festival.
