Euro Leader faces stiff test off new mark of 142
Willie Mullins' progressive charge has been very good to us so far, but the question is can he keep defying the handicapper?
The answer - of course he can't. At some stage that man is guaranteed to get you, it is just a case of how much hay is saved before he finally cries stop.
The first mark Euro Leader was given over fences was 120. That's what he was rated when beating Khairambar (111) by two and a half lengths at level weights at Punchestown towards the end of May. He was, arguably, entitled to win by nine lengths and, armed with that knowledge, the handicapper decided there was no need to raise Euro Leader.
Armed with that knowledge, I quickly decided he was the most likely winner of the Galway Plate, but he missed the race because of the quick ground. So, it was nearing the end of August before Euro Leader was seen again. He duly took advantage of the handicapper's 'generosity' and, despite a near-disastrous blunder three out, strolled away with a valuable contest at Tralee.
Most handicappers, one suspects, live by the maxim, 'catch me once shame on you, catch me twice shame on me'. Our lad is no different!
Up went Euro Leader from 120 to 133, a whopping 13lbs. But it wasn't enough to stop him winning the Kerry National.
We all know that the seven-year-old, under an inspired Ruby Walsh drive, carried 12-0 to a neck success over Monterey Bay.
It was time for the handicapper to have a long think and his reaction was to raise Euro Leader by another 9lbs to a mark of 142.
You can argue that such a reaction was somewhat draconian, but he had to very much take into account that here is a young horse improving at a rate of knots, who has only ever run six times over fences and won four of them.
It is no surprise Mullins has decided Euro Leader should take his chance. The National is a limited handicap with a top weight of 11-10, Beef Or Salmon carried 12-0 a year ago, and this type of contest is a great incentive for the better horses to compete.
Add in the fact that it looks as if he won't have to hump top weight, should, as seems likely, English challenger Lord Sam make the journey.
I doubt Lord Sam would travel if he had to carry 12-0, but 11-10 is far more manageable. What it means is that Euro Leader will get into the contest with 11-6.
Lord Sam is a high-class chaser and you have got to ask yourself if Euro Leader is really within 4lbs of him?
There will be a couple of others who will rate chances as well. Mariah Rollins, who has an alternative entry on the card and given a spin on the level at Thurles last week, for instance, as well as Kerry National third, Pearly Jack, who goes up 2lbs in future handicaps.
Personally, I will travel to Limerick hoping to get a real handle on just how good Euro Leader really is. Great game this.
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THERE will a real sense of anticipation tomorrow morning when the HRI sheets hit the desks round about 10.30, with the emphasis on the runners for the following day's Grade Two National Lottery Agent Champion Chase at Gowran Park.
Looking at the entries this week it was a bit like meeting old friends, if one had any, such as Beef Or Salmon, War Of Attrition, Central House and Watson Lake, as well as old reliables, Ansar and Strong Project.
The horse I am most looking forward to seeing, hopefully the rain will come in time, is Mouse Morris' War Of Attrition. Morris has long believed this is the best he has trained and that's coming from a man who has put Buck House, Trapper John and Cahervillahow through his hands.
The six-year-old had his share of problems last season and cost us enough with a poor effort, following an interrupted preparation, in the Arkle at Cheltenham.
He then finished a moderate second to Ashley Brook at Aintree, two miles round there proving far too sharp, before finishing his campaign with a gutsy defeat of Watson Lake, again it was two miles, at the Punchestown Festival.
Regular partner, Conor O'Dwyer, is also a big believer and his comment after that race is well worth repeating. “Wait until he gets a trip”, said O'Dwyer. Saturday's contest is two and a half miles.
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WAS a trifle surprised at the comments of one or two people regarding Harchibald's lucky victory at Tipperary on Sunday.
One good judge, and fair old punter, said he would never back Harchibald again as long as he (the punter) lived. Can't really understand that. Harchibald is what he is, a multi-talented bridle horse, who is a pound or two short of Champion Hurdle class. I think there will the odd occasion this season when we will have to take a few euro out from under the bed and shovel it on him.
