Weld plays waiting game with Refuse To Bend
This one centres on Refuse To Bend and where Dermot Weld decides he should run next.
The trainer has two choices, the English 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday week, May 3, or the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown eight days later.
Speaking yesterday, Weld said: "The horse is fit and well, but no decision will be made until the middle of next week.
"I want to see how things pan out, what the composition of the field at Newmarket looks like being and what way the ground will ride. He’s a Sadler’s Wells and will always enjoy some cut.”
Refuse To Bend is an admirable colt, who is unbeaten in three races. Weld constantly uses the term "laid-back” to describe his attitude and the evidence thus far tells us that is totally accurate.
Refuse To Bend made his debut at Gowran Park last August. The Kilkenny venue, with all due respect to it, would not be regarded as the most fashionable of tracks for flat racing.
He contested a maiden, which we now know was an ordinary race, and was allowed go off at 11-4. Refuse To Bend won by four lengths and the fact he started such a generous price would indicate he hadn’t been showing a great deal at home.
When Weld decided to step his charge up to Group One, and the National Stakes at the Curragh, it looked a decidedly ambitious move.
But Refuse To Bend answered the call and produced a gutsy performance to beat Van Nistelrooy by three parts of a length.
You could finds holes in the form, but it is far better to concentrate on the fact a bad horse rarely wins that particular event.
Refuse To Bend then made his seasonal debut at Leopardstown earlier in the month, in the 2000 Guineas Trial, and beat the maiden winner, Good Day Too, by half a length.
He didn’t impress everyone, and indeed his success was almost completely overshadowed by the subsequent display of Alamshar later in the day, but I must confess to really liking this horse.
He gave a minimum of 7lbs to all his rivals and that should not be underestimated. Indeed, his rider, Pat Smullen, said as much in conversation at Tipperary last Thursday.
Smullen wasn’t making any extravagent claims on Refuse To Bend’s part, merely pointing out that conceding 7lbs at this time of year is “difficult.”
Need any proof? Well a glance back at mighty Sinndar is quite interesting. The dual Derby and Prix de L’Arc hero only tasted defeat once and it came on his first outing as a three-year-old.
He started in the Ballysax at Leopardstown and failed by a head to concede Grand Finale, a useful, but by no means top class, horse 7lbs. Weld, in a magnificent career, has never saddled the winner of the Epsom Derby. You would have to think it a bit of a travesty if he doesn’t manage to do so, at some stage. His dilemma now is to chose the best route to go down in the short term, before launching Refuse To Bend at Epsom.
The temptation to head to Newmarket must be strong. The Craven meeting at Newmarket last week threw up absolutely nothing and the only question to be asked is whether he wants to take on Hold That Tiger?
Aidan O’Brien’s colt may well be exceptional and he certainly looked it last season, in both the Breeders’ Cup at Arlington and at Longchamp on ’Arc afternoon.
But there is no way Weld will swerve taking him on, if he believes it is the best way to go with Refuse To Bend. The alternative is conceding 5lbs to Alamshar in the Derrinstown.
Refuse To Bend would have to carry a penalty, because the National Stakes is a Group One. Alamshar beat Brian Boru last season in the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh, but will be unpenalised in the Derrinstown because that was only a Group Three.
We started the season thinking it would a third Epsom Derby in-a-row for Ballydoyle. But the pendulum has swung somewhat in other directions. Ballydoyle’s Alberto Giacometti was so disappointing in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown that is it hard to be enthusiastic about him any more. Their Brian Boru was not impressive in that work-out against The Great Gatsby at Leopardstown, but, perhaps, we should’t read too much into that on the basis we simply don’t know what Aidan has left to work on.
How many will Aidan toss in against Alamshar in the Derrinstown? And if Refuse To Bend goes there as well, though if I was to have a bet I’d wager he’ll turn up at Newmarket, then we really will have the definitive Epsom Derby trial!
Alamshar has been all the rage, since just failing to reel in Balestrini in the Ballysax. But the fact the time-experts believe it was an optical illusion, that he was finishing fast, is a sobering thought.
They say he was actually slowing down, but going less slow than the others. Anyway, here’s a Refuse To Bend fan, at least until I know better, and that 10-1 on offer about him for Epsom is fast becoming mighty tempting!
