Joe Schmidt doesn’t like journeys into the unknown
If there is one thing Joe Schmidt detests, it is not knowing what his opposition is capable of delivering. Give him the All Blacks any time. He would dissect them with such forensic zeal, as he did in advance of that famous win in Chicago, that not only did he convince his players that they could win, he also provided them with the methodology to do so.
By presenting a level of detail that highlights the vulnerability of the opposition, he fills the team with serious belief in advance of every contest. It then comes down to the ability of the players to execute under pressure. That level of detail will be absent when Ireland go into battle today. Apart from providing individual profiles and characteristics on players that might not be that familiar to the Irish players, Schmidt has no real idea how France will approach this game.
What will they do in defence? Will they blitz, drift, employ shooters? That will only become apparent as the game progresses and Ireland will have to adapt as they go along. When the likes of Louis Picamoles were on board, brilliant player and all as he is, you knew exactly what to expect. You simply had to double team him on the hit and look to deny him the ability to off-load.
Any information provided on 19-year-old Matthieu Jalibert will have been garnered by Ireland’s superb video analyst Mervyn Murphy, trailing through hours of footage of the out-half in action for Bordeaux Begles. As for impact off the bench, Murphy will have his work cut out, given that the five forward substitutes alone have just two caps between them — is it unprecedented in this tournament that the entire reserve front row are all uncapped?— while the three backs on the bench boast just 16.
That boring old cliche about not knowing which French team will turn up is a bit more apt today, even if it has nothing to do with their mental capacity to deliver. This completely revamped French unit under a new management team is an unknown quantity and that will make Schmidt nervous. That is understandable, even if the structures and systems, both in attack and especially in defence, that Ireland carry into this opening contest place them in a far superior starting position. The emphasis in the build-up to this contest is on making that competitive advantage count right from the off.
After what happened in Murrayfield in Ireland’s corresponding fixture last season, it is no surprise to hear the Irish players and management interviewed this week all focus on the importance of the opening 20 minutes. With so many new and unfamiliar combinations in the French side, Ireland must sow the seeds of uncertainty and doubt in French minds right from the off. So many of their players must be harbouring doubts and concerns, given their lack of collective time together, that if Ireland can force them into error early on, then their lack of international experience in the key positions can be exposed.
As always with any French combination, we can expect that their set piece will be strong. Their scrum and lineout is capable of delivering quality ball and there will be sustained periods of possession in favour of the home side. That presents Ireland with the opportunity to strike, even without the ball.
Jalibert is about to find out that you have far less time to make decisions on the international stage than he has become accustomed to in the Top 14. No side that he has come up against in domestic rugby will have imposed anything like the intensity in their defensive line speed that defence coach Andy Farrell will have Ireland deliver today. We saw how the Lions, under Farrell’s tutelage, managed to stifle a back line with the quality New Zealand had on offer last summer, due primarily to the collective pressure imposed by the tourists in defence.
The French back line that takes the field today has never played together before. Between them, they boast 73 caps, 54 less than the Irish half-back combination alone. Jacques Brunel has picked this unit with the future, specifically the 2019 World Cup in Japan, in mind. There is no doubting that many of the new faces have the ability to become fixtures in the French side over the next few years. As with all new combinations, however, there is a learning curve to be negotiated. Ireland’s capacity to close down space and harry the opposition into error when in possession will be crucial. That is where Farrell will have earned his crust in the build-up to this one.
When attempting to analyse and predict the outcome of any contest, two things dominate my thought process: The quality of the set piece and the ability of the half-backs to control and direct operations. As outlined above, I expect this French forward combination will be competent at scrum and lineout, even if their newly appointed lineout coach Julien Bonnaire, a superb player, has never coached before. Only the French would do something like that.
Therefore, the key indicator shifts to the players with numbers nine and 10 on their respective shirts. Brunel has entrusted the uncapped Jalibert and Racing 92’s Maxime Machenaud with the responsibility of keeping their side on the front foot. Machenaud is also likely to take the place-kicking responsibility off his young half-back partner. It is debatable whether Machenaud would have even started this game if the recalled Morgan Parra — deemed surplus to requirements during the entire reign of Guy Noves — had not injured his knee in Clermont’s last Champions Cup outing. At least Machenaud has been in excellent form for Racing 92 of late and emerged with a lot of credit from his two recent head-to-heads with Conor Murray against Munster.
The Irish half-backs, with 127 caps between them, carry a clear air of superiority about them. What’s more, having had more time to work closely with Bundee Aki since his elevation to the squad last November, Sexton is likely to be in a better position to extract a lot more from the powerful New Zealander than in his first two caps.
Ireland’s kicking game has created all kinds of problems for even the best and most organised of teams over the last two years, so Brunel will have been forced to concentrate much of his limited time in training this week to cater for this. In the knowledge that the opposition is left with no option but to prepare for that probability, Sexton and Murray have the option to go for the double bluff. That is exactly what they did in the opening phases of the game against Argentina last time out when the visitors were exposed early on with the width Ireland were able to put on their game, due to the fact the Argentine wingers were lying so deep in readiness for the anticipated aerial assault.
This Irish back-line has a range of attacking options open to them, both up the middle and especially out wide, where Keith Earls and Jacob Stockdale can cause serious damage. This is the day when Ireland may become less reliant on the boot and, weather permitting, put more emphasis on their ability with ball in hand. Whatever route Sexton decides to go, it is difficult to escape the feeling that Ireland carry too many competitive advantages into this contest to leave Paris without a rare win.
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