'You have 10 to 12 guys who have a legitimate opportunity' - How open is this Masters?

A Lowry spends Monday practice getting the bad ones out of his system, inside and outside the ropes there is a truth:  few players have a realistic chance of donning a green jacket. Usually. 

WATER SPORT: Cameron Young, Scottie Scheffler and Sam Burns of The United States play a skip shot off the front of the tee on the par 3, 16th hole during their practice round prior to the 2026 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 06, 2026 in Augusta, Georgia. Pic: David Cannon/Getty Images

Everyone is on the lookout. Monday at Augusta National is a magnificent guessing game, a frenzied search for players, form and elusive tickets as the countdown to the first Major reaches the final stage.

It wouldn’t be exclusive, high-demand sport without those desperate signs littering the verges around the entrance, and it wouldn’t be the Masters if it wasn’t exclusive. Washington Road is littered with hopeful punters. A billboard looms over the Liquor Locker honouring the worldwide BOS-men catchphrase: Buying or Selling.

The strict ticket policy makes it clear that Augusta National is the only authorised tournament ticket seller, but not even the rarified air of Augusta can escape the clutches of the black market. Everything, from tickets to the highly sought-after Masters Gnomes sold inside Augusta’s merchandise outlets, is in demand.

The patrons who entered for the 8.00am Monday start were greeted by the sight of an eager Shane Lowry and New Zealander Ryan Fox starting their practice round on the back nine. Part of the ticket policy is the expected conduct and customs. That means that everyone is requested to display the requisite etiquette and decorum, cheering and positive responses are encouraged; unsolicited or persistent calls from the gallery are not.

As a result, the sound that greeted several Lowry shots hitting the water as he took the turn at Amen Corner was gentle, bar the odd whisper. What does that mean for the 39-year-old Offaly man’s prospects?

It is just a month since he suffered a significant collapse at the 2026 Cognizant Classic, throwing away a three-shot lead with three holes to play. He arrives for his 11th Masters start having endured a disastrous final round here last year, carding a 9-over-par 81.

Still, settle. It is Monday. He was hitting different shots to various possible pins in what is, after all, practice. Lowry has good form on these hallowed grounds too, having finished tied third in 2022. Despite some recent trouble with the putter, his approach play remains a notable strength and that is a big plus.

Typically, the Masters’ small field and demand for course knowledge mean the number of legitimate prospects is a small cohort. This is not a tournament for longshots and mid-iron prowess is key. A sport that has overwhelmingly embraced the data analytics wave has the numbers to prove it. Eleven of the last 13 Masters winners were at 1.7+ shots gained tee to green in the three months leading in. The last 46 winners played in at least one previous Masters. 24 of the last 26 were ranked in the top 30 in the World Rankings. Even accounting for the occasional outlier, the truth is that few players have a realistic chance of donning a green jacket. Usually.

Is that still the case? The problem comes with the ease with which we can currently pick holes in the top players. We are overly sensitive to the noise of practice rounds or early-week chatter because the current landscape is so shaky.

Not that the pros will admit that.

“I just feel like with how deep golf has been, especially this past year to two years, that the fields are obviously getting a lot stronger,” said Patrick Reed at his press conference.

“I feel like the field this week is really strong like always. I feel like it used to be five or six, maybe seven guys. No, I definitely feel like this year you have 10 to 12 guys who have a really legitimate opportunity to win the green jacket.” 

There are plenty of hard facts. We can tell you that current predictions suggest that the weather will be glorious come Thursday. The granular level of detail provided here informs us that rain has been experienced during 49 of the 89 tournaments. The greens have been cut to a precise 1/8”. What does any of this mean? How will the best players in the world deal with these sublime conditions, given ongoing concerns?

Rory McIlroy has undeniably worn his green jacket well. He has been at the club all weekend. On Sunday, he marked the first time that he could partake in a long-standing tradition, as former winners are permitted to invite a guest. He duly played with his father, Gerry.

But the 2025 champion is dealing with a back injury that forced him to withdraw from the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Is the fact that he is now unburdened by past pain set to propel him to play freely or dull his competitive edge? It could be amazing. It could be awful. The history of the RoryCoaster means he is more likely to veer towards one of these two extremes on Thursday.

Two-time champion Scottie Scheffler withdrew from the Houston Open two weeks ago because of the impending birth of his second child. He revealed on Sunday that his wife, Meredith, gave birth on March 27. Their son Remy was in a stroller beneath The Big Oak. What of LIV? Jon Rahm looks a smart pick yet he would admit himself that this stretch of top LIV finishes isn’t the same as a commensurate run on the PGA Tour. Bryson DeChambeau has the ability to score on the crucial par 5s.

Having been beaten in last year’s play-off, Justin Rose arrives with three agonising near-misses now seared in his memory. That is the peril of the place. You need to be familiar with it. Familiarity brings its own fears.

On Monday, Rose was able to park that. He, like several others, has reason to believe.

“I hope it only boosts my belief that I can go ahead and do it,” he said. “I feel like I've pretty much done what it takes to win. I just haven't kind of walked over the line. I feel like I've executed well enough to have done the job.

“From that point of view, I don't feel like I have to find something in myself to do something different. I truly believe that. No, I don't feel like it owes me anything. I come here with a good sort of attitude. I come here, it's a place that I enjoy being.

“There are certain places you get to and you take a deep breath and go, Right, it's nice to be here.”