Five stats that will worry John Kiely and Limerick

Some unsettling facts for the Limerick hurlers as they seek a first Munster SHC win in four games

Shane O'Brien of Limerick is tackled by Damien Cahalane of Cork during the Munster SHC clash at SuperValu Páirc Uí Chaoimh in Cork. Photo by Ray McManus/Sportsfile

Lies, damn lies and statistics. Or in the case of Limerick, are statistics damning them?

It would sure be a lie to say Limerick didn’t perform last Sunday but for John Kiely’s side there are some unsettling facts as they seek a first Munster SHC win in four games (yes, four).

Here are five:

Two wins in eight championship games (four straight defeats) 

When this statistic was mentioned to us earlier this week, it seemed too wrong to be true. But it bears out – going back to the 2024 All-Ireland semi-final defeat to Cork, Limerick have won two championship matches (Cork, Waterford), drawn one (Tipperary) and lost five (Cork thrice, Clare once, Dublin once). 

Most of this Limerick group went 17 games unbeaten in SHC between 2020 and the opening round of the provincial competition in ’23, a run which comprised 16 victories and one draw. After Clare brought that to a halt, Limerick picked up where they left off and went seven SHC matches unbeaten. 

The last time Limerick lost four championship ties in a row? Between 2003 and ’05, starting with a qualifier defeat to Offaly followed by defeats to Cork and Tipperary in ’04 and then another loss to Tipperary in a Munster quarter-final replay. This period and that should be poles apart and yet… 

One third quarter won in four SHC games 

It’s the “championship” third quarter on which Limerick has built much of its empire. On the resumption, they pulverised teams and by the time the 52nd or 53rd minute arrived the contest was over or as good as. Last Sunday, Cork beat them by five points in the third quarter and were winning it by four prior to Cian Lynch’s sending off. Limerick lost the same period by two points to Dublin last June, their opponents’ brace of goals at the end of the third quarter key to their surprise victory. 

John Hetherton of Dublin celebrates after scoring his side's first goal during the 2025 All-Ireland Senior Hurling Championship quarter-final against Limerick. Pic: Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile

The sense of dominance around Limerick after half-time was obliterated when Cork outscored them 0-13 to 0-4 over those 17 and a half minutes in Croke Park 22 months ago. They remain on a voyage to rediscover what made them great.

Hit the 30-point mark in normal time once in nine SHC games 

The qualifier here is in that timespan they have hit 29 points or an aggregate of it three times, as well as 28 twice. And yet 29 wasn’t enough against Cork in Croke Park in 2024 nor did 28 points suffice facing Dublin there last season. If 30 is the target in football now, it has been in hurling for quite some time. Going back as far as seven seasons ago, it was the number. “I’m sure we’re not going to get everything our own way in certain games and we may not hit 30 points on any given day, but that’s our target every day,” said then Tipperary selector Darragh Egan during the All-Ireland winning season. On their way to winning last year’s All-Ireland final, Tipperary went on a run of five games in which they scored 30 points or more. In contrast, the one time Limerick hit the same heights in normal time in last year’s SHC was their mauling of Cork in the Munster round fixture.

Two goals from play in four SHC games 

In the Kiely era, Limerick’s currency has obviously not been goals, but points. Including five goals against Carlow in 2018, the figure is 69 SHC goals in 51 games. In comparison, Clare under Brian Lohan have 57 SHC goals in 35 matches. In 2020, Limerick almost pulled a similar trick to Galway three years earlier when their three goals against Tipperary in a Munster semi-final were the only green flags they raised on their way to winning the championship. Diarmaid Byrnes’ goal from a 20-metre free in Cork last Sunday was the first three-pointer in nearly 200 minutes of hurling. Those O’Connor and Shane O’Brien goals in last year’s Munster final are their only ones from play in their last four championship outings. Limerick have so often negated their goal shyness but when Clare are so open in Ennis (23 goals conceded in their last seven SHC fixtures there), mining majors will be crucial.

Converting 55% or less of shots from play v Cork in three games 

It is the mantra in the Limerick camp to shoot and then shoot some more. The work done by analyst Seánie O’Donnell has illustrated the more you strike, the likelier you are to win. According to the fine statistical work done by Matthew Hurley ( @gaelicstatsman on X), in their three games against Cork this year, Limerick have had 19 more attempts from play but their conversion rate has never risen above 55%. For two of the three matches, O’Donnell’s theory worked and Limerick won. Perhaps they would have again had Cian Lynch not been dismissed but hitting eight more score chances than Cork and losing by four last Sunday was unLimerick-like.