Final round Allianz FL permutations: Rarely has there been so much at stake

Of the four in the Division 2 promotion bottleneck, Monaghan are best poised.

AFL PERMUTATIONS: The Division 1 final pairing is still unknown. Five of the six promotion berths have yet to be decided. Three of the relegation spots have still to be filled. Pic: Piaras Ó Mídheach/Sportsfile

Not in so long has so much been at stake heading into the final round of Allianz Football League fare. The Division 1 final pairing is still unknown. Five of the six promotion berths have yet to be decided. Three of the relegation spots have still to be filled.

Capturing the mass congestion is the unique situation in Division 2 where Cork could end next Sunday either relegated to Division 3 or promoted to Division 1, albeit the latter would require a colossal score difference swing. But you get the point, nonetheless.

Here, John Fogarty and Eoghan Cormican pore through the four divisions and the many, many permutations.

Division 1 

Promotion: With Galway, Dublin and Donegal tied at the top on eight points, score difference may be a factor in determining the finalists, although Donegal’s indifference about reaching the decider has to be considered.

They travel to Castlebar on Sunday where Mayo (7 points) could yet squeeze into the showdown after an unbeaten run from Round 3. Wins for Galway over Kerry in Salthill and Dublin against Tyrone in Omagh should see them through to the final.

Should either of them lose, however, Mayo can qualify with a win. The score difference tallies at the moment read Galway +17, Dublin +8, Donegal +4 and Mayo -3. Galway have the head-to-head advantage over Donegal and Mayo while Dublin have the edge over Galway and Mayo. Donegal beat Dublin in Round 2.

Relegation: Derry’s relegation was confirmed by their defeat to Mayo on Sunday. They will be joined in Division 2 next year by one of Tyrone (5 points), Armagh (5) and Kerry (6). All-Ireland champion Armagh’s home record is strong and they will be fancied to topple doomed Derry to move to seven points.

Kerry must match either Tyrone or Armagh’s home results to stay up, although in the event Jack O’Connor’s side finish on the same number of points as the Ulster sides, they will finish ahead based on their wins in Pomeroy and Tralee. Wins for Armagh and Tyrone coupled with a draw for the Kingdom and score difference will separate them. Kerry are currently +11, Armagh are -8 and Tyrone are 0.

There is also the possibility of Mayo going down but it is a remote one. A defeat to Donegal combined with wins for Armagh, Kerry and Tyrone would see Armagh, Mayo and Tyrone split on score difference.

Division 2 

Promotion: How long have you got? No seriously, this will take a minute.

Of the four in the promotion bottleneck, Monaghan are best poised. Gabriel Bannigan’s men only require a draw at home to Down. And even if they were to lose, their current +33 score difference is so superior to that of Roscommon (+19), Meath (+10), and Cavan (-4), they’ll likely still go up should two of the latter three win this weekend and pull up alongside them on 10 points.

If Monaghan move on from their current 10-point total, head-to-head will decide second should two of Roscommon, Meath, and Cavan finish tied on either nine or 10 points. Roscommon would be in trouble in that instance as they lost to both Meath and Cavan, while the clash of the latter two ended in a win for the Royals.

Given their +19 score difference and the fact they're playing already relegated Westmeath, Roscommon will be the county, more than the other two, looking for a three-way tie.

Considering Cavan’s inferior score difference, they must overcome Cork and hope Roscommon and Meath slip up to jump from fourth to second. Or, win at home to Cork, Roscommon do likewise, Meath fall away to Louth, and Monaghan get some sort of a result against Down. All of that has Raymond Galligan’s men edging Roscommon for promotion on the head-to-head.

Relegation: Westmeath, as noted, are already gone. One from Down, Louth, and Cork will join them. A draw gets Cork to safety. They could still survive even if they lose away to Cavan, provided both Down and Louth don’t pick up maximum points in their respective games against Monaghan and Meath.

If Cork lose, and both Down and Louth win, then score difference will decide which one of the three goes down. Cork are currently -9, Louth -19, and Down -11. Given Louth have the head-to-head on Down, if they both lost or both drew, Louth stay afloat and Down drop.

Division 3 

Promotion: All down to the final round. Kildare, despite losing their last two games, still look good to go up despite falling to third place (8 points) behind the teams they lost to, Offaly (10) and Clare (8).

The Lilywhites face Antrim in Newbridge this weekend knowing their superior score difference can be a telling factor – their return is +48, Offaly’s is +37 and Clare’s reads +16. Clare’s home record is impressive, but it will probably take a 11-point win to gain promotion if, as expected, Kildare defeat Antrim.

Fermanagh (7 points) could come into the promotion equation if both The Banner and Kildare fail to win at home. It’s unlikely but should Fermanagh defeat Laois and conclude their campaign on the same number of points as two of them a mini-league (a table based on the results of the tied teams against each other) will decide who finishes ahead of him due to the walkover The Erne County received from Leitrim this past weekend.

Relegation: Leitrim’s decision to concede to Fermanagh confirmed their demotion from Division 3. Although there is no guarantee they will field a team, they now face Sligo (5 points) whose rearguard action in the latter half of the league has been impressive and they look all but certain of staying up following their latest win over Antrim (4) at the weekend.

Andy McEntee was resigned to Antrim’s relegation after that reverse as even if they beat Kildare and reach six points and Laois (6) lose the northern side would fall because of the head-to-head differential. Laois travel to Enniskillen.

Division 4 

Promotion: All very straightforward in the basement tier. Wexford, unbeaten to date, are long promoted. They’ll play in the third tier next spring for the first time since 2018. Who can join them is a short list. Striving for second are Limerick (8 points) and Wicklow (7).

The former hold all the aces. Victory at home to Waterford sends the Treaty up irrespective of how Wicklow fare away to Tipp. A draw would also take care of business for Limerick, so long as any Wicklow victory over Tipp didn’t stretch to 15 points or more.

In sum, the only realistic means of Wicklow leapfrogging Limerick at the death is for Waterford to win at Rathkeale and Wicklow to do likewise in Clonmel.