Why England, Netherlands, France and Spain won’t win Euro 2024… but why they might

Spain are the only semi-finalist who can argue with confidence or evidence that they got here by playing well at all.
Why England, Netherlands, France and Spain won’t win Euro 2024… but why they might

England's Trent Alexander-Arnold celebrates after a quarterfinal match between England and Switzerland. Pic: AP

Und dann waren es fier. The only pity is that the nations who could interpret that literally, as well as figuratively, are no longer with us.

And then there were four. But Germany are not one of them. Nor are Turkey, the cars and vans honking and chants ringing though Dusseldorf’s leafy downtown canal district late into Saturday and early into Sunday one final raucous act from a Turkish-German expat fanbase which captured ears as much as hearts these past three weeks. The Swiss could’ve comprehended it but they too were done, Bukayo Saka’s brilliance defying English ineptitude as much as Swiss daring or destiny.

All of which, ultimately, left us with four continental blue bloods, teams of distinct tongues but three of them having extreme difficulties translating much successfully here in Germany. It’s quite a thing that Spain are the only semi-finalist who can argue with confidence or evidence that they got here by playing well at all.

With rubber rapidly meeting road in Munich and Dortmund in the coming days, there are compelling reasons why England, Netherlands, France, and even the Spanish won’t make it to Berlin with a chance to win it all… and a few why they might.

England

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His cream knitted-zipped t-shirt thing billowing all the way, Gareth Southgate danced into Saturday night in Dusseldorf. It was a weirdly enjoyable thing to watch, like seeing a man freed from something terrible just as the Jackson 5 comes on at his niece’s wedding.

“If you can’t enjoy that moment, the whole thing is a waste of time,” he explained afterwards. Too right. But a little rich too, given that he has wasted a whole pile of our time out here.

His clock ticking down, Southgate has resolutely remained merely a reactionary, needing someone else, usually an opposition striker, to wake his team up for him. Once rustled they can do briefly amazing things, the rest of the time it’s down to the individuals. Against Switzerland, Saka was the one to save them, twice over given his nerveless penalty.

But the much-trumpeted switch to a back three was hardly a change at all and altered little. Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden trampled over one another again and Declan Rice looked leggy early. Kieran Trippier was a passenger. John Stones, partners changing around him, looks the weak link in defence and Kyle Walker is a mistake not waiting to happen but happening often. As for Harry Kane’s fitness for office…

But why they might: The soloists rising above collective calamity. England have the best collection of players who remain. Bellingham has played hero, Saka too. Foden’s turn could arrive in Dortmund. They’re remarkably close to trip-falling into something historic.

Netherlands

The international game’s greatest rescue act Wout Weghorst may well be. Alas you cannot rescue yourself to a first major title in a lifetime. Saturday night in Berlin, amid the swirling mayhem that is a Turkish atmosphere, another original Ronald Koeman game plan got lost. Time for WW6.6.

Weghorst, remarkably not the Dutch word for war horse, saved the game before helping win it, a brilliant defensive floor stretch denying Turkey a 2-0 lead. He did for Ireland in qualifying but Koeman appears unwilling to deploy Weghorst from the start and/or unable to make it work on the rare occasions he does, Wednesday perhaps next.

Midfield remains a total morass where the injury absences of Frenkie de Jong and two other leading options haven’t proven possible to overcome and where there is precious little protection offered to Virgil van Dijk’s ropey defence. The Dutch have conceded five goals in five games while our other three semi-finalists conceded just six combined.

The left-right dance the Dutch fans do on their marches to the stadium has been parodied too often with last-ditch blocks, like Micky van de Ven’s at the death in Berlin, saving the day. Ditto Bart Verbruggen heroics in goals.

“For the whole nation it is something special,” Koeman said as he considered a first Euros semi-final since 2004 and first tournament meeting with England since 1996. This Dutch vintage is not close to either of those. If we were to gauge our confidence in the four remaining teams meeting the moment, Koeman’s side would be last, maybe by a distance.

But why they might: They’re in the soft half of the semi-finals, English frailties sure to surface at some point in Dortmund. In Cody Gakpo they have a player who doesn’t rise but rockets to occasions. Memphis Depay and his headband have one major act in them too.

France

A question: If France meet the Netherlands in Berlin next Sunday does Stephen Kenny get parachuted from Pat’s back into the Ireland job? In the process it would solve everyone’s problems…by solving exactly none of them.

Ireland’s dance partners from Group B in qualification are just 180 minutes (more likely 240) from making it all the way to the final night of this thing and sure, if you’d watched them in qualification, that would have made sense.

There they combined for 46 goals in 16 games with Didier Deschamps’ side shouldering the load with 29. Inexplicably, they’ve forgotten to pack any for their month in Germany. It remains arguably Euro 2024’s most staggering statistic: just three games remain and France have yet to score from open play, a Kylian Mbappé penalty and the prolific own goal helping them to the final four.

“We need to score more goals,” Deschamps said after Friday night’s stultifying penalty win over Portugal. “[Otherwise] we are at the mercy of our opponent.”

Being at the mercy of even a weakened Spain is a different prospect to what’s come before. In Munich, Deschamps has multiple issues to sort: five midfield combinations in five games haven’t yielded the right one; Antoine Griezmann’s influence is still lacking; it’s not just Mbappé’s nose that’s out of joint; with finishing so utterly wretched the tournament’s best defence is too heavily relied-upon. Deschamps’ brutalist pragmatism has to catch up with him.

But why they might: Muscle memory. When the calendar ticks over into day 20-something at these summer gatherings, the walls close in, pressure and fear ratcheting up. Instincts have to be relied upon. This France squad still retains a core quintet of World Cup winners from six years ago and many more who made it within a penalty of retaining that trophy in Qatar.

Spain

Mister Taylor of England wreaked far more damage than any German Herr on Friday evening as Luis de la Fuente’s men consigned the hosts to the shortest journey home. Determined to make himself the main character of the knockout stages’ outstanding contest, Anthony Taylor flashed yellows with abandon and now Spain are deprived of captain Alvaro Morata, Robin Le Normand and Dani Carvajal for Tuesday night, midfielder Pedri also now out of the tournament through injury.

Absences always pile up at this stage of proceedings but losing almost half a team is different. Carvajal and Le Normand represent the entire right half of Spain’s defence, with 38-year-old Jesus Navas now the only option to stare down Mbappé. Can Rodri, with Dani Olmo and Fabian Ruiz, control enough to protect such a fragile backline particularly against a rejuvenated N’Golo Kanté? Joselu is also likely to be a serious downgrade at the head of proceedings. This all feels too stretched.

But why they might: Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams have been the most consistent game-breakers this month. Their momentum out wide is at times irresistible.

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