Breaking down football’s league-championship link 

LEAGUE IMPORTANCE: John Cleary would be able to have a right cut at Munster with Sam Maguire Cup qualification all but secured through the league. Pic: Eóin Noonan/Sportsfile

Remind me again, how are the Allianz Football League and Sam Maguire Cup linked?

Seven of the 16 slots in the Sam Maguire Cup come by way of league standings. The best four are seeded third and the remaining three fourth but their identities really don’t emerge until the confirmation of the eight provincial winners and runners-up, who are first and second seeds. Meath claim a fourth seed berth by virtue of their Tailteann Cup victory last year.

So who qualified last year via the league?

Mayo (third seed – first in Division 1), Roscommon (third seed – third in Division 1), Tyrone (third seed – fourth in Division 1), Monaghan (third seed – sixth in Division 1), Donegal (fourth seed – eighth in Division 1), Cork (fourth seed – fourth in Division 2) and Kildare (fourth seed – fifth in Division 2). Westmeath secured a fourth seed as 2022 Tailteann Cup winners.

How close did Cork and Kildare come to missing out on the Sam Maguire Cup?

Meath, who finished in sixth behind them, were consigned to the Tailteann Cup when they lost their Leinster quarter-final to Offaly. Kildare’s disappointment in provincial semi-final defeat to Dublin was softened by Offaly and Down also losing their corresponding games that weekend. 

Had either team won, they would have sacrificed their Sam Maguire spot. In the event two or more of Down, Kildare and Offaly landed provincial final spots, Cork would have surrendered their “Super 16” place.

Is the league more important to Cork and Kildare this year?

For Cork, yes. They are on Kerry’s side of the Munster SFC draw this season and will have a provincial semi-final in Killarney, a place they haven’t win in championship since 1995, if they beat Limerick. 

John Cleary would be able to have a right cut at Munster with Sam Maguire Cup qualification all but secured through the league. For Kildare, the matter isn’t as pressing as 2023 as they are not on the same side of the Leinster draw as Dublin on this occasion.

So what is league SFC qualification for them likely to look like?

Top four in Division 2, to be sure. Clare, Tipperary or Waterford are going to reach a Munster final so that lessens the chance of a leading team who double qualifies by making a provincial decider and their league standing freeing up the latter spot. 

Some of Armagh’s fellow Division 2 teams will be wishing them well on the weaker side of Ulster, although the Connacht SFC is a more balanced split this time around meaning it’s probable two current Division 1 teams will progress to the final unlike last season when Sligo beat Leitrim to qualify.

Can all eight Division 1 teams at the conclusion of this season’s campaign be first and second seeds?

No. For one, even if Cork are promoted to the top flight, they can’t face Kerry in a Munster final. Also to factor in is the fact all three Ulster teams currently in Division 1 are on the same side of their provincial draw.

What will those Division 2 counties on the cut mark at the end of March be hoping for in the provincial finals?

Aside from qualifying for them and thus becoming first or second seeds, that as many teams as possible above them are provincial finalists. There is a possibility the Division 3 champions could sneak the last spot.

Is there much difference between third and fourth seeds?

There is if you consider all four 2023 third seeds did enough to make the All-Ireland preliminary quarter-finals, and three of them reached the quarter-finals proper. Just one of the fourth seeds, Westmeath, did not get out of the groups but they were all gone before the last eight. 

Three second seeds – Clare, Louth and Sligo – also struggled but that provincial runners-up should have a better return this year.

And what’s this new regulation for final standings in the event the league is weather-affected?

Yes, a pertinent point given we’re experiencing the second storm in a matter of days. Should a full games programme including the final in a division not be completed by the end of March, positions at the end of the last full round will determine their ranking for the Sam Maguire and Tailteann Cups.

Let’s pray it doesn’t come to that.

So, cards on the table, predict the finishing positions in Division 1 and 2?

Division 1: Dublin, Kerry, Derry, Galway, Mayo, Monaghan, Tyrone, Roscommon.

Division 2: Donegal, Cork, Armagh, Kildare, Cavan, Meath, Louth, Fermanagh.