Does the GAA really need a successful Dublin football team?

John Small and brother Paddy Small of Dublin lift the Sam Maguire after the All-Ireland win over Mayo at Croke Park in 2020. The Dubs lost their crown this year but remain a powerful force. Picture: Ray McManus/Sportsfile

Forget the big sporting question going into last weekend’s All-Ireland football final and whether Mayo could finally rid itself of the serial runners-up tag.

As they once again performed to type, the interesting commercial question for the sponsors, brand owners, and partners was: ‘What would an All-Ireland without a dominant Dublin look like commercially?’

In other words, does the lack of the biggest and most supported team in GAA affect the visibility, revenues, branding, and marketing of the biggest sporting competition in the land?

Judging by television numbers alone, as Mayo-Tyrone hovered just under the 1m viewer figure, the answer is very definitely ‘Yes’.

Despite being one of the most eagerly anticipated finals in years, last weekend’s decider failed to do what only Dublin managed (on three occasions since their the start of their period of dominance) and reach the ‘magic million’.

Saturday’s match in which Tyrone heaped more misery on Mayo was the sixth most-watched All-Ireland final since the year before Dublin’s period of dominance began in 2011, with 944,390 viewers tuning in.

Some sponsorship executives believe that a more open All-Ireland competition will lead to longer-term audience growth, but for now, no Dubs means a small reduced interest, compared to recent finals.

IT’S OBVIOUS, RIGHT — BIGGER TEAM, BIGGER VIEWERSHIP?

The greatest indicator of the popularity of any live sports event is broadcast. Live television figures from 2010 to last Saturday tell an interesting story of market and public interest in the All-Ireland Football final.

Love or loathe Dublin dominance, the general public cannot get enough of it as demonstrated by the viewership figures over the past 12 finals.

As the Nielsen Techedge numbers show, there’s clearly no fatigue factor with Dublin among TV audiences. The capital’s audience is too large to effect a drop-off, even if parts of the country may be bored with serial winners and same old outcomes, year after year. Out of the top five most viewed finals since 2010, Dublin featured in the first four.

While down at the bottom of the last 12 finals chart, the two which were least viewed did not feature Dublin — Kerry v Donegal in 11th, and Cork’s one-point victory over Down in 2010 with just 782k tuning in. Cork is clearly bigger than every other county, population wise — except for Dublin — so it’s perhaps an anomaly explained by the county’s hurling partiality. That number for Cork is almost 350k less than watched Dublin’s dramatic 2017 win over Mayo, when 1.1+m saw Dean Rock’s late free kick seal a third title in a row.

LATE DRAMA–LATE SURGE

A potent mix of Dublin winning an All-Ireland final with high drama thrown in, is demonstrated again by their position in second place when the Dubs fightback in 2011 against Kerry — again a one-point victory margin — pushed television figures over the ‘magic million’.

While the only other final to get more than a million viewers was in 2013 when Dublin beat a highly fancied Mayo by 2-12 to 1-14, another tight decider.

When further interrogated, the numbers show that finals that featured the Dubs averaged at 966k, while finals featuring any two other teams came in at more than 84k less - 882k.

Big teams bring big numbers, big numbers bring stronger advertising revenues and overall investment. There is a good reason why Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Juventus haven’t been thrown out of the Champions League, despite all three continuing to pledge their undying support for a European Super League — namely audience.

While the numbers are still strong for non-Dublin finals, there is nothing that makes a GAA, broadcast or commercial executive more excited, and that’s one million-plus television audiences.

EVEN WHEN THEY’RE LOSING, DUBS ARE BOX OFFICE

While not featuring a Dubs star in the lead role, the image of Diarmuid O’Connor’s last-ditch lunge to keep alive an otherwise dead ball for Mayo, late in the semi-final, received a staggering 2.5m views across online and print media. The photograph was taken by Sportsfile’s Stephen McCarthy, from an unorthodox camera position high in the stand.

Core Sponsorship & Rue Point Media, using media monitoring technology, have approximated that the potential media reach of the shot to be 2.46m people.

The drama and energy from McCarthy’s image was equally fascinating to brand watchers, who noticed a triplicate of SuperValu logos laying out an extraordinary backdrop to a superhuman effort.

The financial value of such branding — on the live broadcast and in highlights packages later on television, and through McCarthy’s picture on social media and sports pages — has been established at €43k for SuperValu, from one single play, lasting a couple of seconds.

While sponsors clearly enjoy brand visibility, SuperValu explained that such branding wins have no real long-term value for it as a GAA Football Championship commercial partner, which does not consider itself a “logo sponsorship”.

“Short-term, the brand exposure is great and sometimes you get lucky with the level of signage around the field,” explained Ray Kelly, marketing director with Musgrave (owner of SuperValu). “But really we’re not a logo sponsorship, it’s not the purpose of our sponsorship.

“Our view, since 2010, is a longer-term view with long-term relationships, where partnerships and support at a local level around the country through our retailers is something we’re more involved in.

“A clear example of this is our announcement this year, working with the GAA, to increase participation among people from diverse backgrounds by 30% by 2025 in GAA sports.”

SO DOES THE SPONSOR NEED A DOMINANT DUBS?

Not always. Dublin being knocked out is not quite the commercial disaster that it might appear from a ready-made mass audience perspective, that a team from the largest population centre brings.

Ray Kelly believes that a final this year without a serial winner may lead to a more open and competitive competition in the long-term, even if this year’s final ended up a little one-sided at the end.

“When Dublin play you certainly get bigger media interest, that’s for sure, and with greater levels of coverage you get higher audience and a lot more eyeballs,” he explained. “However, it is more important in the longer term to have a more exciting Championship.”

WHAT WOULD A DUBLIN RECESSION LOOK LIKE FOR THE GAA?

Don’t ask, the GAA aren’t going there — whether through commercial nervousness or simply from a realistic standpoint.

GAA commercial director Peter McKenna was asked in a recent Irish Examiner interview if an end to Dublin’s dominance would pose a financial effect for the association.

McKenna, who is also Croke Park stadium director, was either in diplomatic or commercial mode when he responded: “It would be way too early to write them off, Dublin are way too strong. They’re still a fantastic team, in fact they’ve lifted everyone else’s standards. I think they will be back strong in 2022.”

For the GAA, a dominant Dublin certainly guarantees larger gate receipts at Croke Park right through from provincial to All Ireland semi-final (the final itself is always a sell-out). But where the GAA’s sponsorship and corporate deals are concerned, along with their television rights partnerships, as well as All-Ireland final stadium revenues, there is little or no effect of having a ‘Dublin’ or ‘non-Dublin’ decider.

So are the Dubs good for the game, commercially? Most certainly. But a more competitive All-Ireland with greater competition possibilities is key for the long-term development of the championship. Just don’t hold your breath.