Could Croker be old guard’s Waterloo?

Another September.

Another meeting of those two counties who in the eyes of their supporters can’t bate the other crowd often enough or by enough.

If Tipperary play really well tomorrow they’ll win. Let us take this as our starting point.

Play really well and they’ll win because it’s 2014, not 2009, and a really good performance will be enough to account for the current Kilkenny team.

Granted, it’s not 2010 either and this Tipp team isn’t that Tipp team. But like it was back then they’ve worked up a head of steam since a first-fence fall in Munster, and like it was back then, too, the plan of engagement will surely be the same. Try and blitz Kilkenny early, make every post a winning post and force Napoleon’s old guard to do the chasing.

Who’ll throw a curveball, as the underdogs did in 2009 when recasting Lar Corbett as a centre-forward to the tune of four points from play? Hardly Brian Cody, who doesn’t do curveballs; subjecting James Barry to an aerial bombardment is a probable Kilkenny gambit, with three men across midfield to shield Brian Hogan who in turn will shield JJ Delaney.

It has become an article of faith that Hogan was a bigger loss than Henry Shefflin in 2010 because he’d have stood his ground and refused to allow the defence be pulled apart.

The accuracy of this assertion will be tested tomorrow. But Hogan is four years older now.

It may be too easy to suggest Tipp will do what they did against Cork, clearing the forwards out and isolating Seamus Callanan on Delaney, with Bonner Maher not too far away to pick up the crumbs. There is little point in having the latter in the half-forward line looking up at the ball flying over his head.

Maher is in the form of his life; he can be expected to play to that standard here. Callanan is in the form of his life; if he plays to that standard then Tipperary win. John O’Dwyer may well do little enough in open play yet end up with three or four points to his name, although if Noel McGrath is as tepid as he was in the semi-final he won’t be there to see the closing quarter.

The more fluid forward line is the one wearing blue and gold. Will Kilkenny compile a match-winning total? With two of their most accurate riflemen, Eoin Larkin and Richie Hogan, not operating up front at all? And the possibility that by paying Padraic Maher the honour of giving him his own minder they’ll undermine their own scoring power a bit more? Colin Fennelly isn’t the most precise striker, his brother is a midfielder and Walter Walsh, whether he starts or is brought on or neither, is hit and miss.

Even allowing for the conditions, Kilkenny’s 2-13 in the semi-final was distinctly underwhelming. When was the last time they scored 2-13 and won? The obvious touchstone is the 2004 All-Ireland semi-final where they scraped together 3-12 to edge out a Mullane-less Waterford — and come the final ran out of legs and scores.

Chances are, then, that Brian Cody will find himself required to deploy all his resources and must do so with care. There’s much of a muchness between some of his starting forwards and some of those who didn’t make the cut: hence his portfolio of options on the line, patently superior to Tipp’s options. But unlike against Limerick he’ll almost certainly have to use them all and — the critical part — use them in time. Therein lies an element of randomness that will chafe his structured soul: keeping throwing mud at the wall until enough of it sticks. Yet good subs cannot be good subs if they spend the 70 minutes sitting on the bench.

If the reader has become bored with the sight of black and amber entwined with blue and gold it’s understandable. If the reader has become bored with the fare they serve up it’s inexplicable, and he or she really ought to take up a more exciting pursuit such as lounge bowls or crocheting. Kilkenny and Tipperary are familiar but have yet to become boring.

The league final was sufficient proof of that. Just when we assumed the days of thunder had been left far behind in 2009-10 they went and served up another absorbing struggle. That’s 16 halves of hurling, plus four halves of extra-time, they’ve done in league finals and the championship since 2009. The accompanying table indicates how closely contested those periods have been.

It’s hard to see Tipperary winning midfield — Shane McGrath’s resurgence notwithstanding. Against Cork the resistance was so negligible he and James Woodlock might have been facing the Italian army circa 1943. Still, McGrath had 11 clean first-half possessions and Woodlock seven. Then again, Conor Fogarty and Richie Hogan had 10 apiece during the first half against Limerick. And Hogan’s record versus Tipp is almost obscenely good, dating back to minor level. And McGrath and Woodlock had Padraic Maher teeing them up with bucket upon bucket of spring water.

Some other observations.

This is one All-Ireland final that could be decided by a goalkeeping mishap. ’Tis a consummation devoutly to be unwished for.

The game is unlikely to be decided by one side’s flagrantly bad shooting. Kilkenny have been averaging eight wides per game this summer and Tipperary 10.

Tipp, who have been good and gracious losers — not an easy chore — these last few defeats, will, if they win, undoubtedly cite the burning sense of hurt that propelled them to victory. Apposite as it may prove to be, it will not be the deciding factor. Kilkenny have not been outhungered since the 2001 semi-final. Appetite will not decide this. A cunning plan, well executed, will.

Tipp number five September debutants. If they lose, the silver lining will be that they’ve done so with the pillars of the county’s next All-Ireland-winning team rather than the pillars of the last one.

Bonner Maher will unquestionably return in the next life reincarnated as a fairground bumper car.

The eternal danger of the pair’s familiarity breeding contempt cannot be dismissed, but by far the nastiest of the big meetings in the past five years was the first one: the 2009 league final. Since then most of the flashpoints have been silly rather than toxic.

On second thoughts.

That Tipp forward to play off Callanan in the full-forward line: what about Noel McGrath? It would prevent him getting lost in traffic out the field. And he used to have a good goalscoring record.

Tipperary waited until nearly half-time to bring in Brendan Maher in 2011. They won’t make the same mistake with Mickey Cahill if there’s a hole to plug.

Cody doesn’t make a habit of rolling the dice during games, but the issue could come down to how quickly he thinks on his feet.

If he has to, will he push Richie Hogan up front in the closing stages? Though moving Tommy Walsh from wing-back to wing-forward wouldn’t have saved Kilkenny against Cork in 2004, Cody’s unwillingness to do so was as striking as it was puzzling, given that the ship was sinking and there was nothing to lose by gambling.

Similarly, with the attack labouring against Galway in the drawn game two years ago Hogan was made to stay put in midfield until the replay.

From this vantage point the verdict looks too close to call, even if that doesn’t automatically mean there’ll only be a point or two in it at the end. But if the fare isn’t memorable Kilkenny will probably win. Napoleon’s veterans may have one last hour in them.