This is going to be a war... and a draw

AS is my usual habit I visited both All-Ireland hurling final counties in the last week, to see what they’re getting up to in training and to gauge for myself the feeling in both camps — and among both sets of supporters.

The dominant impression I came away with, from both Tipperary and Kilkenny, was how calm everyone was, how cagey, but also, how low-key.

Is it a case of the calm before the storm? Because that’s what it seems like to me. In America they’ve just had Hurricane Irene – we could be in for our own hurricane here tomorrow, and I just think all I saw was that eerie calm you get just before the full force hits. Croke Park tomorrow, the senior game, I believe, is going to be a war, it’s going to make the Battle of Clontarf seem like a pillow-fight. The reasons I’m saying this, there’s a hurt in both camps. In Kilkenny it’s last year, the big loss to Tipperary; in Tipperary it’s because they feel they have never been given their proper due for that win, all the talk about Kilkenny missing Brian Hogan, about Henry Shefflin getting injured after only a few minutes. There’s even a double hurt for Kilkenny because a lot of people — Tipperary people especially — are also saying that Tipperary would have won the final of 2009 but for a few poor refereeing decisions. Between the two of them, that’s a lot of pain to be carrying in to one game.

I’ll start with Kilkenny. There’s a massive change in Kilkenny this year, over a third of the team is new – David Herity, Paul Murphy, Brian Hogan, Michael Rice, Richie Hogan and Colin Fennelly didn’t play last year, and Henry only lasted ten minutes. That’s a huge turnaround of players in one year. The most crucial man of those, I believe, is Brian Hogan. He’s centre-back, he’s the captain, he’s a massive protection for the inside line, for Noel Hickey especially, at full-back. He’s a huge man, 6’4”, outstanding ability in the air which is very important in this position.

His two wing-backs, Tommy Walsh and JJ Delaney, are also pivotal figures. Tommy wasn’t at full throttle last year, nor was JJ; they’re back, Tommy definitely. That’s a crucial line in this game; for Kilkenny, to stop the ball getting through, for Tipperary, because this is where they need to win ball, this is where Seamus Callanan, Noel McGrath and Patrick Maher need to set the platform for Tipp. I believe Kilkenny are better equipped this year than last to deal with that threat from Tipp.

Equally, at the other side of the field the Tipp half-back line of Conor O’Mahony in the centre, Padraic Maher on his left, and young John O’Keeffe on his left (his first All-Ireland senior final, and I’m surprised Brendan Maher didn’t start here) is a crucial line. Not alone are these good defenders, but O’Mahony and Maher are also capable of scoring a few points. Additionally, many of the Tipp goals have come from long balls launched from this area, where midfielder Gearoid Ryan can also pop up.

A big question: will Michael Rice actually start on Padraic Maher? I think he will, and he should. Michael is a former midfielder, so he can defend as well as he can attack; Kilkenny won’t want Maher to be driving forward and if Michael can break even with Padraic here, it’s job done. It’s possible Eoin Larkin could be put on John O’Keeffe, for Eoin’s strength in the air. I believe we could see Richie Hogan at full-forward, and sooner rather than later – I’m thinking of a few years ago when Richie gave Paul Curran a torrid time due of his size.

Finally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Henry at corner-forward on Paddy Stapleton. That’s a lot of speculation (at the time of writing I don’t have the Kilkenny team), but regardless, that’s what I think could happen , and that’s definitely what I think should happen.

The big battle will be in midfield. Michael Fennelly is in running for hurler-of-the-year, Shane McGrath is going to hit top form for Tipperary at some stage, and this would be some stage. If TJ Reid starts there for Kilkenny he will be on Gearoid Ryan and those are two loose players, two good guys to pick off the points – if it’s very loose I’d nearly see TJ coming out on top here.

All over the field, though, fantastic battles in prospect. LarCorbett and Eoin Kelly in the Tipp full-forward line – how much freedom are they going to get, how much space can John O’Brien create for them? Personally, I can’t see them getting any. Kilkenny were caught last year – you know the old expression, ‘fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me’. Noel Hickey and Jackie Tyrrell won’t be fooled again.

I’ve been pondering on a winner here, and it’s just so hard. I’ve pitched and tossed on it, I’ve gone through the players man for man, and I can see nothing between the two teams, nothing. Even within the counties I didn’t get anyfeeling from the fans, everyone very cagey.

For the first time since I started writing for the Examiner, I’m going for a draw. So much skill on both sides, so much strength, so much character, so much to play for, so much hurt – I honestly can’t pick one over the other.

I just hope, however, that when it’s all over that it won’t be the referee we’ll all be talking about. I saw during the week that Padraic Maher was calling on Brian Gavin to let it flow, let it go — I echo that call.

Picture: TO THE VICTORS THE SPOILS: The Liam MacCarthy Cup awaits the champions on Sunday.Picture: Ray McManus/Sportsfile