Kilkenny backs can contain Tipp hotshots

SINCE the beginning of this year I’ve had Tipperary as my All-Ireland favourites with Kilkenny a close second. Throughout the season I had seen nothing to make me change that opinion.

That was until the All-Ireland semi-finals and Tipperary’s clash with Dublin.

In their run through Munster, Tipperary were imperious. They brushed Cork aside in a bigsecond half (3-22 to 0-23), and while Clare gave them an examination in the Munster semi-final the Premier county recovered and again finished strongly (4-19 to1-19). The Munster final was one of those freak days when nothing goes right for one team, everything in tune for the other with Tipp crushing Waterford by seven goals (7-19 to 0-19).

At that stage of the season then, Tipperary were red-hot favourites to retain their All-Ireland title, and while I’d have agreed with the sentiment, I would havequestioned the temperature. Red hot? Don’t think so.

Kilkenny, you see, were having an impressive campaign also. A fully fit Henry Shefflin was back in the frame, conducting the orchestra up front. While at the heart of thedefence a new captain, the immense Brian Hogan had also returned frominjury to control affairs from his centre-backposition. They had anew keeper, the veryimpressive David Herity, and two new guys out the field, a flyer at corner-back (Paul Murphy) and another at corner-forward (Colin Fennelly).

They began with a tricky outing to Wexford Park but finished comfortable winners (1-26 to 1-15) and continued that form with an emphatic win over Dublin in the Leinster final (4-17 to 1-15), reversing a12-point Allianz Hurling League final loss to the same opposition. The universal feeling among hurling fans after that game was the Cats were back, looking as powerful and as hungry as ever.

Then came that Munster final.

Take a look through the scoring above – notice anything? Right, the huge scores put up by Tipp in Munster; 3-22, 4-19, 7-19, goals and points galore, an aggregate of14-60, an average of 4-22. And yet, against a Dublin team that was without full-back Tomás Brady, corner-back Óisín Gough, wing-back Stephen Hiney Tipperary were confined to just 1-19 in the All-Ireland semi-final. In the wide open spaces of Croke Park, on a perfect day.

So they are not uncontainable.

Look at Kilkenny; in their two games in Leinster their aggregate was 5-43, their average 2-23 – not so shabby. Against a far more defensive-minded Waterford in the semi-final they even managed 2-19 – another potent attack then. But, maybe we’re looking at the wrong end of the field altogether.

Unlike the finals of 2009 (Kilkenny won 2-22 to 0-23) and 2010 (Tipp won 4-17 to 0-18), I believe this will be a defensive battle, a game more in the mould of the semi-final featuring Dublin. The two teams know each other inside-out now and in those circumstances the advantage swings towards thedefence; it’s far easier to plan for all the various threats, far more difficult for an attack to break down that defence. Kilkenny will know to expect the huge early ball out of the Tipperary defence, both will know to expect the ghosting of Henry Shefflin and Lar Corbett.

In such a scenario then, things will be very different. This could well be the year when the All-Ireland ends in a draw which hasn’t happened since 1959, Waterford and Kilkenny (Waterford won the replay). Given that I’ve never been a fence-sitter, however, I have to make a call.

Verdict: Kilkenny

Picture: IMMENSE: Brian Hogan controls affairs from centre-back position.