Tight battle will suit Ernesiders but Armagh can end fairytale

AS famous French poet once put it, history teaches us everything, including the future, and a quick recap of this pair’s recent head-to-heads is as good an indicator as any about what awaits in Clones.

Fermanagh and Armagh have met five times in the championship, front door and back, in the last six years and the bottom line is that, when it is tight, Fermanagh have a shot, when it opens up, they don’t.

Armagh hit 0-16 in 2002 and again in the 2006 replay, 2-12 in the meeting three years ago. All three games were won at a canter. The flip side was in 2004, and again a year later when they scored only 11 points. Fermanagh won one of those ties and drew the other.

All the signs are that this will be more like 2004 and 2005. The only time either side has looked like running riot on the scoreboard was in Armagh’s opener against a decidedly ordinary Cavan.

The pair have spread their scores among 11 different players, neither are overburdened by injuries and both are hoping for an increased input from returning heroes in the shapes of Barry Owens and Oisin McConville.

If Armagh have a clear advantage in any area, aside from their greater experience at this level, it is in their physicality. Down couldn’t handle that in the semi-final but Fermanagh might.

A light side by Ulster’s beefy standards, Fermanagh make up for it with an astonishing work rate, particularly around the middle third, where scavengers like Mart McGrath and Mark Little can shine off scraps.

Armagh operate under a similar philosophy but have evolved under Peter McDonnell, with a more direct, attacking focus. Witness Stephen Kernan, a midfield labourer under his father Joe, scoring 1-2 against Down.

The favourites have benefited from new blood, with Charlie Vernon, Finian Moriarty and Kieran Toner all winning starting spots, while McDonnell has been sharp enough to bring most of Joe Kernan’s squad with him. The result is a team backboned by years of grit, know-how and success and sprinkled with just enough freshness to keep the engine from stalling. They know how to win Ulster finals, too.

Fermanagh, as we know, don’t and it remains to be seen how they cope with the pressure of being 70 minutes away from breaking the county’s infamous provincial title drought. They will be hard to shake but the difference between these sides may well prove to be in the forward ranks, where the underdogs are simply unable to match talents like Steven McDonnell and the resurgent Ronan Clarke.

Apologies to all the romantics out there, but Armagh to win. Just.

Verdict: Armagh