Waterford possess the greater goal threat

WHATEVER that other fellow wants to do, don’t let him do it.

Boxing has always been a treasure-house of pithy strategies, but the above, from the great black heavyweight Sam Langford, is particularly relevant to both Limerick and Waterford tomorrow.

Whoever arranges the atmosphere will shape the storyline. The Shannonsiders will be hoping for edgy claustrophobia, while Waterford want a technicolour shoot-out.

To that end, consider the teams selected. Limerick have had to make one enforced change. Damien Reale is a loss because while Limerick at least have another man-marking specialist to hand in Seamus Hickey, it unbalances their defence somewhat. Reale’s withdrawal means that you now have three ball-playing defenders rather than sticky destroyers in O’Riordan, Lawlor and Foley. They’ll have to rein in their tendency to swashbuckle – the latter duo particularly – because they’ll be opposed by scoring forwards in Kelly, Mullane and Flynn, not willing workhorses trying to open the space for other players.

Advantage Waterford.

Up front the Limerick selection also seems to favour the Déise. Brian Begley’s size makes him an ideal target man but Waterford’s Declan Prendergast will be happier picking him up than, say, Andrew O’Shaughnessy.

It’s not surprising that Limerick have decided not to re-launch their big switch from two weeks ago. While they only saw Tipperary off when they brought an extra body, Kevin Tobin, out to midfield in their third game, there’s a law of diminishing returns involved in such ploys.

It took Tipp 20 minutes to counteract the Tobin move, and by then Limerick were six points up; Waterford, forewarned, would hardly have waited as long and are inclined in any event to bring Stephen Molumphy out to help populate the prairie. Reiterating the prospects of a clogged middle third is the selection of Kevin Moran at full-back; the big youngster is far more likely to dig in alongside Michael Brick Walsh in midfield.

One Limerick player in particular will miss Tobin sweeping in front of him, centre-back Brian Geary. He comes in on a good run of form, having done well on various Tipperary players in the last few weeks, including Darragh Egan and Ryan O’Dwyer, but Seamus Prendergast is an entirely different proposition.

Prendergast combines the strength of Egan with the energy of O’Dwyer and can’t be overestimated in Waterford’s battle plan. It’s a simple enough plan – Prendergast wins the ball in the air and turns to take on his man, relying on size for the former and mobility for the latter. Exhibit A: Dan Shanahan’s first goal against Cork in the semi-final.

Waterford have another half-forward trump card, of course: Dan Shanahan can also be drafted into the centre for Clinton Hennessy’s puck-outs, and Prendergast can be moved to wing- or full-forward. When he’s near the square his ground strokes aren’t as sweet as Paul Flynn, but then again, they have Flynn himself near goal. They don’t need a tribute band.

Other Limerick players also face a fair step up in quality. Ollie Moran now faces Ken McGrath, a hardened centre-back with years of experience in the position rather than Benny Dunne, his marker for Limerick-Tipp Part One. The Waterford man is used to a driving, physical opponent – witness his clashes with Cork’s Niall McCarthy — and Moran won’t enjoy the physical advantage he held over Dunne.

Other variables also tilt slightly in Waterford’s favour. They’re more experienced generally and have seasoned men on the bench – Feeney, Bennett – while Limerick have enthusiasm in the likes of Tobin and O’Connor. Both sides have been doing well from frees: Andrew O’Shaughnessy’s nerve held up well to equalise in extra time after the first game while in McGrath and Kelly Waterford have two good long-range options.

In Flynn, however, Waterford have an unforgiving operator from close-in frees.

And that may be the crucial difference. Waterford can score goals, while Limerick have been struggling to raise the green flag. Caveats are being issued because Waterford’s five in the semi-final came against a weakened Cork defence, but the chances were still made and taken. In three games plus two bouts of extra time Limerick carved out two goals. They’ll need to do better than that tomorrow if they want to win.

Limerick have gone to the final bell of the last round in their three championship games so far, and that’ll get you the verdict often enough, in boxing or hurling. But we go for Waterford on the basis that they won’t have to rearrange themselves tactically tomorrow, and they can score goals. Stopping that other fellow from doing what he wants may be a step too far for Limerick.