Experienced Waterford have edge over Limerick

THE striking feature of the first of the Guinness Munster hurling semi-finals in Semple Stadium tomorrow is the widespread uncertainty about the outcome.

With respect to the Kerry challenge in the first round in Walsh Park, that game didn't reveal too much about Waterford's current form, no more than Limerick's big win over the holders in the League in Kilmallock could be taken as a guide to their potential. Not that we needed to be reminded or maybe we did but Clare's success over Tipperary two weeks ago highlighted the fickle nature of League form relative to the championship.

Limerick promised much two years ago after running Tipperary so close in the Munster final, before losing unexpectedly to Wexford in the All-Ireland quarter-final. But that promise remains largely unfulfilled after an inferior display against Tipp in last year's Munster semi-final.

How much the loss of form could be explained by the off-field controversy involving the management is hard to say, but it was no surprise when Eamonn Cregan opted out following the defeat to Cork in the qualifier a result that was influenced by some poor refereeing.

By his own admission, Cregan's successor Dave Keane believed that it would be relatively easy to build on the county's remarkable success at under-21 level achieved under his guidance, and that of co-selectors David Punch and John Meskell. The reality was quite different, with the team losing their opening four rounds. In an interview I did with him in late March he admitted that it was only in hindsight that he appreciated the high level of expectation within the county. And, the management themselves expected it.

"We thought that when we'd go senior we would carry on the winning ways we had at under-21. I think the under-21 players thought that and I think the supporters expected it," he said.

Under the expert coaching of Justin McCarthy, Waterford last year won their first Munster title in 39 years with a devastating display of power hurling. However, Croke Park nerves affected some of their players in the All-Ireland semi-final meeting with Clare, who were inspired by a late first-half goal scored by Alan Markham and ultimately triumphed through a marvellous Colin Lynch point.

Their form in the League was erratic, to say the least, and while it would be easy to dismiss it totally, the team has to prove itself all over again. The challenge facing Limerick is slightly different. The selected team includes eight of the side which lost to Tipperary last year and features nine players who have won under-21 medals. There could be a tenth involved if Ollie Moran is ruled out and Eoin Foley takes his place at left half-forward.

Moran would be a huge loss if he is unable to start. While he might not have the best record for consistency, he is a natural leader in an attack which includes four of younger players, among them Andrew O'Shaughnessy.

Clearly Waterford have the advantage in experience and, in all probability, potential. Much will depend on how they perform because if Limerick get into an early lead they would be hard to stop. However, it will take a little longer for the team to mature. Waterford, then, to advance.

*Carlow referee Pat Ahearne will be in charge.