Arbre De Vie has strong claims in Kerry National
It’s Guinness Kerry National day in Listowel, and my hopes of a fifth win in the race and first since 2009 lie with Arbre De Vie, who I think has strong claims.
The race is usually won by a class horse, and Arbre De Vie, A Toi Phil and Slowmotion fit that bill as the more likely winners of this year’s renewal, while the unexposed Potters Point could have a say if coping with the conditions.
I think it’s going to be a very strongly run race, as there are three confirmed front runners – Kylecrue, Kilcarry Bridge and Sir Jack Yeats. We’re going to be going a really good gallop, and that will put a huge emphasis on stamina.
With the ground being so testing, it will be very difficult for the horses who get detached early to make up a huge amount of ground. The ones that can jump and travel comfortably, ideally in the first eight or ten, are likely to be to the fore at the end of the race.
It will be a fascinating race. I would have loved if Arbre De Vie was carrying less than 11 stone, but he’s just the wrong side of it, and that could be the difference between winning and losing.
Looking down through the full list, starting at the top, Lord Scoundrel and Road To Riches have very similar profiles. Two class horses, both former Galway Plate winners, they’re certain to stay but have been struggling to recapture their very best form, which they will need if they’re to carry their big weights to victory.
A Toi Phil is a classy sort, will like the ground, and he ran okay when fourth in the Galway Plate. The trip is an unknown, but I think he’ll stay.
I ride Arbre De Vie, who comes here in good form. He will stay, is a good jumper, and I think he’ll handle the ground, as he was second to Acapealla Bourgeois on heavy ground in Navan. He was running well in the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival when brought down, I think he’s in good order, and hope he has a great chance.
Slowmotion kept going well when third in the Galway Plate, and is bred to stay, but I think it will be hard for a five-year-old to win this race. I know very little about Colin Tizzard’s Tempestatefloresco. All his winning form seems to be on better ground, but his trainer has a strong hand in the staying chaser division, and he must be respected.
I think Stellar Notion is guaranteed to stay. His Leopardstown Chase and Paddy Power Handicap Chase runs are great form. You’re taking his fitness on trust, but he’s one with high-class handicap chase form in these conditions.
Shanpallas is a former Munster National winner, but I’m not sure the ground will be to his liking, whereas Kylecrue is proven in the ground and around this track. He won here on Sunday, and wears his heart on his sleeve, but this is a much classier race and he’ll be there to be shot at.
Potters Point is a fine big horse, who jumps well, but I think he wants better ground. I know Gordon Elliott fancies him, and who am I to question that, but I’m just not sure about the conditions for him.
Kilcarry Bridge, much like stable-companion Kylecrue, likes to get on with it. He’ll be one of those to make sure it’s a true test of stamina, and you’ll know about it by the time you’ve got past him.
I rode Bentelimar once, and I think he’s crying out for this trip. He’s a pacey horse, but not a quick horse. He was travelling well when he unseated his rider in the Galway Plate, and is a lively outsider.
Viva Steve, the second British raider, is one I don’t know much about. He has won over the trip and on soft ground, and has had just three runs since joining Fergal O’Brien.
Champagne Harmony creeps in at the bottom of the handicap, but probably needs a career-best to get involved, while Bay Of Freedom is a good jumper and a strong traveller, but I’d have doubts about real testing ground for him.
King Leon has a low weight, which means he has to be given consideration, but he’d have to put his best foot forward to make an impact. Arkwrisht is a novice with very little experience, though he probably has the ability.
Sir Jack Yeats ran on Sunday, and was a bit disappointing. He likes to get things his own way, and is sure to force the pace, along with Kylecrue and Kilcarry Bridge, but it’s going to be hard for the three of them to keep going.
