We need to talk about Conor Murray… or do we?
That he is not starting or involved Saturday is a blow. I don’t have the important medical details of his injury (hence the speculation), but it’s clearly not a straightforward ‘stinger’ to the shoulder.
He seems to be giving it a go every week — two good days, then one bad, presumably when the nerve gets aggravated. But the fact that the Munster management seemed to be ruling him out so early this week now, with the benefit of hindsight, indicates they had decided to go with Duncan Williams anyway.
How much of a swing-factor is Murray not playing? If it’s a one-score against Saracens, of course his absence may be a factor. There’s a reason these guys get big contracts — because they deliver big plays in big moments in big games — like Murray against the All Blacks in Chicago.
Because if the scrum-half can’t pass, he can’t play. And Duncan Williams is ready. In fact, Duncan Williams has been ready for this from a long way out. The problem with Duncan was perception — negative perception. And often when it came to his capabilities, it was nowhere near the truth. I don’t even think there’s been many huge changes to his game in recent times — he was always terrier-like, he had a good kicking game, had a good pass and was incredibly brave. Supporters now see him in a different light, but the biggest thing for any sportsperson is the capacity to be able to put back-to-back good performances together.
And then make that three or four games in succession. Only then does a player begin to find a rhythm. That’s why we have pre-season friendlies. Some players need two, more players need three and four games to get their step in tune and be ready for week on week.
Williams has always been capable but if you are a half back on a team that’s under pressure, you get disproportionate amounts of criticism — just as you are disproportionately praised when things are going well for the team. I know that well.
Untimely injuries piled on top of a dearth of confidence almost suffocated Duncan Williams at one stage. He hit absolute rock bottom. Did if affect him? Yes. Did he get dog’s abuse?
He did. But thankfully he found a strength of mind that enabled him to train harder and when the break came, he was ready to put all his hurt into telling performances.
His fitness and his sharpness improved incrementally — getting to the breakdown quickly is fundamental for a nine to move the ball away, as fundamental as being a good passer.
There might be 12 lineouts and 10 scrums in a match but there will be up to 180 rucks. He’s also got to be a real strong reader of the game. Williams has had to constantly adapt and he has done that against a very difficult backdrop. There is no fear of him.
What should not be under-estimated from a Munster standpoint is the sense of
excitement and anticipation their players will bring to the game. Twelve months ago, this group was struggling for sixth in the Pro12 to qualify for a European campaign.
Imagine that for a second. From survival to a Champions Cup semi-final. That is a really positive frame of mind to be going in with against Saracens, and they are seriously excited and keen to represent their fans well tomorrow.
That connection with their support could be the one-score difference at the Aviva.
Saracens will come ready for anything though. Mark McCall’s players are a serious collection of talents and they have what all great teams do — a massive trust in each other to go for the full 80. It’s hardly coincidental they eke out so many games in the last 10 minutes.
Again, last weekend, they doused the fire of Northampton in the closing stages, a sure sign of players doing it for each other.
That is created over years of being in the trenches together. Like the lads in the old Munster set-up, they just find a way to win. The semi-final should be a fascinating tactical battle because every team tries to overplay against Saracens.
The winning of this game is in the kick tennis. The benefit of an accurate kicking game is territory or better still, finding grass. If the ball bounces, you’re in business.
If Sarries kick, put the pressure back on them — but Munster can’t kick loose. The accuracy of the kicking game is the winning and losing of the game.
Let’s play it out: Sarries kick to Munster outside their 22, two passes, Munster get tackled, not enough numbers at the breakdown, Saracens stay on their feet, penalty, front of the posts, Owen Farrell 3-0. If that happens twice in a game, it’s six points too much. I can’t call it. It’s a one-score semi.
Though Clermont-Auvergne have been locked and loaded on Sunday’s other semi-final for some time, I think they might get done by Leinster. The old chestnut of discipline returns and Irish teams are four or five penalties better off than their Top 14 opponents nearly every time.
But it’ll still be a massive ask for Leo Cullen’s side. Clermont are almost possessed with the need to win a trophy this season. That’s been there since pre-season.
But until they come out the right side of a clutch situation, it’s impossible not to have the same reservations about them. That’s as unfair as it is predictable, I know, because there are only a couple of semi-finals or finals every season. But if it’s a one-score game in Lyon after 60 minutes, are you backing Clermont? No, you are not.
Maybe Jonno Gibbes is the extra 5% this season, but Leinster can also point to the increments Stuart Lancaster has brought to their set-up — solidity, direction, experience, and the positive impact of turning a big failure with England into a positive rebound in Dublin.
