Three areas that'll decide the South African test series
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It is hard to believe Conor Murray will be winning his 50th cap for Ireland today. It only seems like yesterday that Declan Kidney sprung him from nowhere as a bolter for the 2011 World Cup but, even then, he had a presence about him that suggested he was destined for greatness.
Now one of the key influencers in the side, the manner with which he has taken over the role of senior half-back in the absence of Johnny Sexton suggests that here is a future Irish captain.
His decision-making, slick passing and superb kicking game has taken a lot of pressure off Paddy Jackson and allowed the Ulster pivot to slot seamlessly into the side. Murray’s easygoing manner has also rubbed off on Jackson and helped ease the burden of responsibility that he would have felt coming into this series. Jackson’s new-found confidence and maturity has impressed all around him, while the variety to his play and decision-making under pressure has been a prominent feature of the opening two tests.
Despite the rave reviews surrounding the Super Rugby performances of Faf de Klerk and Elton Jantjies leading into the first test, their inexperience and naivety at this level is proving a major drawback to South Africa.
Some of De Klerk’s passing has been woeful and he has been offered nothing like the time and space to unleash the brilliant broken field running that elevated him to Springbok selection in the first place. It doesn’t help that he is primarily a left-legged kicker — always a disadvantage for a scrum-half given that you feed the ball into the left-hand side of the scrum — and that lack of a kicking game puts more pressure on his out-half at this level.
As a pairing, the South Africans’ tactical appreciation and ability to change the point of attack has been poor, to the extent that the injured Pat Lambie has been a much greater loss than his more ardent critics down here would have appreciated.
The variety of Ireland’s kicking game has baffled the Springboks at times and with those options expanded even further by the presence of Luke Marshall and Stuart Olding in midfield, Ireland have the capacity to control this key territorial battle.
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Ireland have been the dominant side for a game-and-a-half yet find themselves level at one win apiece.
The Springboks bossed their one period of success, the second half in Ellis Park last Saturday, because they dominated the key battle for the gain-line for the first time.
With Ireland falling off their tackles, the big South African ball carriers in Eben Etzebeth, Peiter Steph du Toit, and Warren Whiteley powered their way through Ireland’s would-be tacklers. That front-foot ball enabled powerful centre Damien de Allende to make even further inroads and offload to the speed merchants out wide in Willie le Roux and new wing sensation Ruan Combrinck.
Combrinck could prove a real handful from the get-go today. He also adds an additional, long-distance, place-kicking option for the hosts. Allister Coetzee has also introduced Stormers flanker Jaco Kriel, described as the most explosive ball carrier in South Africa, to bring even further impact in the carrying stakes in the final quarter when he expects that the Irish will be wilting.
Size matters in this game and South Africa finally worked out the most influential way to use it. Such was the effectiveness of Ireland’s line speed in defence in the opening test that, even with a man advantage, the Springboks were never allowed build up a head of steam.
With the strength and power of Robbie Henshaw now missing from Ireland’s midfield, it is even more imperative that they reproduce that line speed and turn midfield into a claustrophobic zone. It must be a concern for Joe Schmidt that, with Jared Payne also ruled out with a calf problem, Ireland’s two most effective defenders are now absent.
That places a big onus on Olding, Marshall and first-time starter Tiernan O’Halloran, with just 11 caps between them, to implement the defensive system introduced by Andy Farrell that worked to such great effect in Cape Town.
Several of the inexperienced Springboks have found the step up from the more free-flowing Super Rugby style difficult to handle and haven’t coped particularly well with the sustained pressure that Ireland apply, with and without the ball.
With such a much-changed back-line to that utilised in the Six Nations championship — now shorn regular starters in Johnny Sexton, Henshaw, Payne, Rob and Dave Kearney, Tommy Bowe, and Luke Fitzgerald — Ireland’s strength in depth faces a stern examination.
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As this Irish squad faces into its 17th and final international of a draining season, it is the reserves of mental rather that physical stamina that will ultimately decide what is sure to be a searching examination from a pumped-up Springbok squad. The Irish players are extremely conscious of the enormity of the prize that awaits the victor today and are fully cognisant of their opportunity to kick-start what could prove a monumental weekend for Irish sport.
With so many first-choice players now out of the selection mix, there are plenty of excuses available to anyone looking for them. But this touring squad showed in Cape Town, when performing so manfully throughout that 58-minute period when reduced to 14 men, that they are not prepared to take the easy option.
The role of the sports psychologist has impacted to the degree that negative thoughts are simply not entertained. That manifested itself after last Saturday’s agonising defeat in Johannesburg when Irish captain Rory Best refused to apportion any blame for the collapse in the final 20 minutes on the effect of playing at altitude, when this clearly had an enormous influence.
Driving many within this group is the desire to prove themselves at this level. Jackson, Marshall, Olding, Jordi Murphy and Ultan Dillane are all still finding their feet at this level and know that signing off this mammoth season on a positive note will put them in pole position for the challenge of taking on New Zealand twice and Australia next November.
CJ Stander also feels he has a point to prove after the fall-out from his sending-off in the opening test and he is determined to make a lasting impression on his native South Africans and leave a reminder of what they missed out on.
Tiernan O’Halloran is a gifted player who has enjoyed a spectacular season with Connacht and he now has the chance to show that he can replicate that form at international level. With Eoin Reddan announcing his retirement after this game and Matt Healy’s inclusion on the bench meaning every tourist has now been part of a matchday squad, this is a very united and determined bunch of players.
On a day that history beckons, the inexperience of a back-line with a combined total of just 191 caps appears just about the only shortcoming Ireland carry into the contest, until you realise that the Springboks have even less on 129, with Willie le Roux and JP Pietersen accounting for all but 25 of those.
If the defensive effort that underpinned the stunning victory at Newlands two weeks ago can be reproduced, then Ireland has the capacity to win this one — even if it will require one more superhuman effort.
